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The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

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Well for the first time since a stretch in Dec...the pattern is giving us opportunities, but converting it to reality still requires a lot. Need that PV lobe to swing energy far enough west and equatorial enough to get that Baja energy ...and need that to kick out fast enough to be drawn in.

You figure we would get lucky once in an entire met. winter and have a region-wide significant snow storm, but this year confounds.

I'm not going to take anything seriously until it is well defined and inside 96 hrs. Otherwise, it's just that...a threat.

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We really need to see what these Feb 8-9 shortwaves end up doing before we figure out any potential after that. What a mess the flow is coming up.

GIve me a couple inchers, just give me snowflakes in the air over a two to three day period and its a win in this winter.

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Hasn't started. 3 snowpack days since the Oct storm does not qualify as winter. So far this 'winter' destroys '01-'02 in terms of s uckage. I hated that winter.

Same down here, lucky if we have had 17 inches including the October storm. I love snow, but at this point in the season, if we haven't received much and the ground has remained bare, I would prefer for it to stay that way. We will see what this weeks threat brings.

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HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE

NORMAL. MODELS ARE STILL DIVIDED AS TO WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE REST

OF THE WEEK...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A

WEAK LOW OR TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH OR NEARBY THE

REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR

THESE TWO PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BEST GUESS THEREAFTER IS

THAT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT

ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS

BACK IN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH A COLDER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS.

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I'm actually kind of impressed by this run.

Looks like we'll miss this run to the east, but that trend of more defined energy to the south looks better...I'd actually love to see that become dominant and have the PV lift northeast at the same time...we did see some impressive ensemble members at 06z show what would happen if the southern energy got more involved

5vfhe.jpg

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