ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The GFS is a little warm verbatim, no? If you actually takes its surface temps seriously...then yes it might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 lol at what this winter has done to the forum. 11:30EST, the 00z GFS is rolling out with a legit snow storm for the 11th, and there are all of 3 people in this thread A moderate Pete to CNE snowstorm on the GFS and you're hoping for a bunch of posts? In a ideal world there would be little to no posts about 156 hour op gfs, anyway lol. I thought we should all give anyway, Sam? You've been trolling for the last week or more about how this winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 If you actually takes its surface temps seriously...then yes it might be. I know long range guys have been banging the drum on that period..but that has a "threading the needle" look. Too much PV and it's out to sea...too little and it shoots right up the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I know long range guys have been banging the drum on that period..but that has a "threading the needle" look. Too much PV and it's out to sea...too little and it shoots right up the coastal plain. It might end up being a needle thread type storm...but until we really get a better handle on how rounded the PV is or not, then we won't really know...if the PV gets more stretched out like it has been slowly doing on recent runs, then it will start giving more margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 A moderate Pete to CNE snowstorm on the GFS and you're hoping for a bunch of posts? In a ideal world there would be little to no posts about 156 hour op gfs, anyway lol. I thought we should all give anyway, Sam? You've been trolling for the last week or more about how this winter is over. Come on, you know any other winter, we would have a string of posts on the GFS storm. Not saying they're justified, but that's what we'd get. At the very least, there would be a crowd in the thread. There were literally three people lol. But it's true. It's all futile anyway. People have finally caught on. I'm glad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It might end up being a needle thread type storm...but until we really get a better handle on how rounded the PV is or not, then we won't really know...if the PV gets more stretched out like it has been slowly doing on recent runs, then it will start giving more margin for error. Yeah I think that's what HM was mentioning...he thinks the threat is real...but seemed to have some concern about high tight and fast the PV will be since the strat-vortex is right overtop of the mid-level one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Come on, you know any other winter, we would have a string of posts on the GFS storm. Not saying they're justified, but that's what we'd get. At the very least, there would be a crowd in the thread. There were literally three people lol. But it's true. It's all futile anyway. People have finally caught on. I'm glad. what's true? People just haven't been posting as much since they are emotionally drained and have given up...it's not because they've learned that the 7 day op runs are mostly garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I know long range guys have been banging the drum on that period..but that has a "threading the needle" look. Too much PV and it's out to sea...too little and it shoots right up the coastal plain. Definitely agree it's a classic threading the needle look. Preferably, the weak s/w that swings through on Thursday is more amplified and slower and might help to simulate some degree of blocking downstream. Otherwise we have deep layer S/SW flow up the east coast and across Nova Scotia and Newfoundland with a slight shift one way or another yielding drastically different results. Also preferably in that situation, we see more of a phase with the southern energy, adding more moisture to the system, and also deepening the closed circulation into the mid levels. Again, otherwise, it'll be a fast storm without much banding, and all model QPF will be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 what's true? People just haven't been posting as much since they are emotionally drained and have given up...it's not because they've learned that the 7 day op runs are mostly garbage. No I was saying it's true that winter's over and we should give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It didn't phase per se ...but that southern energy kicked out a lot more than previous runs and it grabbed some of it.... If this is a trend maybe it will be a more complete phase on future runs.... Than again ..with the GFS it could lose the whole thing next run. Well if it phases with the southern stream at that longitude, it will probably run up the Hudson Valley or something horrible like that...a phase would be nice, but somewhere over the SE coast or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was just watching those exciting NV caucus returns. LOL ..and figured a model prog. on a storm 6 days away could wait until I finished my snack. what's true? People just haven't been posting as much since they are emotionally drained and have given up...it's not because they've learned that the 7 day op runs are mostly garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I will admit that we are due for some good breaks from a PV after the 2010 season, but eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Debbies ain't seeing the trees thru the forest. Snap, it will be in your face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Debbies ain't seeing the weenies thru the forest. Snap, i will snap one off in your face. Jesus, dude....'cmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Jesus, dude....'cmon Heavy car bombs, holy gonzo. RIP BO memorial fire pit, thirty five close friends attended. Cin made me an awesome framed pic. Good times talking snow with frirends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Ggem 982 near mass coast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'll be in DC on the 14th and again on the 20th/21st.... On those days I want a major MA snowstorm. Ggem 982 near mass coast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'll be in DC on the 14th and again on the 20th/21st.... On those days I want a major MA snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Well we finally got an OP run to show a pretty big event for Feb 11th. 00z GFS is a big hit..esp for interior...but details are irrelevant. Just that it showed some key snyoptic features work out was encouraging. awt been harping for over 2 days that this would happen if we got more interaction of n/s streams... best setup since mid jan agree that details don't matter yet... to be resolved over the next few days: - how far southeast will PV locate - how quickly will a phase occur - which pieces of energy in either stream will dominate lots of attn to MJO phase but I think these factors will be more significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 00z EURO is worlds apart from the GFS. Nothing Thursday...nothing 2/10-12. Literally, there is nothing there but a chilly NW flow. Everything is squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Go EURO...all set with 3" of mush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Key thing is it doesn't draw in any of the southern stream energy. Left behind in the Baja ...which is kinda what I figured the ECM would do. 00z EURO is worlds apart from the GFS. Nothing Thursday...nothing 2/10-12. Literally, there is nothing there but a chilly NW flow. Everything is squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Key thing is it doesn't draw in any of the southern stream energy. Left behind in the Baja ...which is kinda what I figured the ECM would do. I agree with you...I doubt that happens.....it will probably end up a lame, interior centric, moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 00z GFS looks like its a fraction away from becoming a rainstorm up here as it bombs up the Hudson Valley. Looping that H5 and the SFC, its not hard to imagine that going way west. Just another solution on the table. That would be the kicker... like the 5th straight "upcoming threat" to find another way to screw the pooch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Euro ensembles try to show something like the GFS op, but it's very progressive. Nothing special looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Of course the 6Z GFS lost it totally ..southern stream low stays in the Baja. Euro ensembles try to show something like the GFS op, but it's very progressive. Nothing special looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Of course the 6Z GFS lost it totally ..southern stream low stays in the Baja. I'm not going to take anything seriously until it is well defined and inside 96 hrs. Otherwise, it's just that...a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Euro's got light snow for us Wed night/Thursday..couple inches...nice to see it still has that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Euro's got light snow for us Wed night/Thursday..couple inches...nice to see it still has that Verbatim, it has nothing for you...but I think it's still on the table. GFS has it as well. I think the problem s that it could be too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'm not going to take anything seriously until it is well defined and inside 96 24 hrs. Otherwise, it's just that...a threat. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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