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The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

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I would gladly take 2" Thursday. Not really counting on it

Hoping for a mod event at this point seems precarious

Amen. I like these little events where you may get an inch or two then another inch or so, setting up the stage for a potential event next weekend. Nice pics down south this evening.

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JB made one realistic and good point I thought today. If that closed 5H low in old Mexico can't come out in time to phase with the PV dropping down. Scenario #2 is that it then comes out and attacks the cold around VD or so.

Of course the way to a full screw job up here would be for that to then be suppressed.... JB doesn't much care about Upstate NY and northern NE. If it verfies good snow somewhere along I-95 his main subscfribers are happy.

18z gfs... the Feb 10-12 threat is not going away... plenty of time to sort out i) which piece of energy to focus on and ii) to see more interaction of northern and southern stream shortwaves to decide if we get a mecs vs. fropa-embedded energy... but the larger synoptic ingredients are there for a decent east coast snowstorm

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The problem with minor events now is the sun is getting too strong to hold onto them if it's around 30F etc... So hey I like all snow, but part of the fun of small events is that you are slowly building the snowpack.... We pissed away that part of the season.

I would gladly take 2" Thursday. Not really counting on it

Hoping for a mod event at this point seems precarious

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I know it's been a horrible met. winter, but October was a legit. event so this winter won't go down as one of the most futile in most of SNE. It's no different than 96-97 when the winter was made by one late out of season event.

I know in our case ..neither of us had a KU event in October, but a lot of them here did.

I honestly do not want a minor event....I'd rather take a shot at the futility record.

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I honestly do not want a minor event....I'd rather take a shot at the futility record.

I'm in complete agreement...

We're in a year of remarkable and often historic off-the-chart anomalies.

To CT Rain's list, add October snowfall >> Nov + Dec (and an East Coast earthquake).

And as I said in another thread, we're finishing up the 3rd inning of a no-hitter... at what point do we start rooting for a complete no-hitter? I think that's more intriguing and exciting than a few inches of slush or a couple nickel events here and there.

...

Here's what we're facing for KBOS:

9.0 1936-1937

10.3 1972-1973

12.7 1979-1980

14.9 1994-1995

15.1 2001-2002

15.5 1988-1989

17.0 1931-1932

17.1 2006-2007

18.1 1985-1986

19.1 1990-1991

This is far more historic and arguably far more thrilling than a couple nickle/dime events for the rest of the winter...

My sentiments exactly... since as far back as December...

I love snow as much as anyone here... but unless futility falls with a blockbuster, I think making history is more exciting at this point...

Especially if we make it unscathed now that the AK vortex is dislodged and the -AO and looming -NAO regimes...

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I can appreciate going for the futility record (well, not really, I love any snow more...)

The way this season s going, Boston will have 3 4" "events" that scuttle a chance at bottom 10

Maybe 4" followed by rain to wash them away... yuck

Nobody will break their futility record here so we should probably try and salvage some decent events.

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I know it's been a horrible met. winter, but October was a legit. event so this winter won't go down as one of the most futile in most of SNE. It's no different than 96-97 when the winter was made by one late out of season event.

I know in our case ..neither of us had a KU event in October, but a lot of them here did.

Not to be a dick, but I don't give a flying PV lobe what the majority of the region received...only mby.

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Nobody will break their futility record here so we should probably try and salvage some decent events.

Statistically unlike to set the BOS record, or even bottom 5, but each day that goes by heightens the excrement that is this season.

If the 8th/9th comes and goes without an ich and Boston, then the 11th/12th passes with the same, it could be grim

Of course a 4/1/97 redux could make it moot

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Statistically unlike to set the BOS record, or even bottom 5, but each day that goes by heightens the excrement that is this season.

If the 8th/9th comes and goes without an ich and Boston, then the 11th/12th passes with the same, it could be grim

Of course a 4/1/97 redux could make it moot

if only... a bookends season with halloween / april fool's day or anything close to that would itself be pretty amazing

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Probably not, but never say never...just like folks told me how much more snow I had to look foreward to in Feb 2010.

Oops.

Well that is different than going less than 1.3" at BOS from here on out...maybe you have a slightly better shot at getting under 4", but its a pretty slim chance. Probably like 1 in 300-500 or something.

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Well we finally got an OP run to show a pretty big event for Feb 11th. 00z GFS is a big hit..esp for interior...but details are irrelevant. Just that it showed some key snyoptic features work out was encouraging.

It's a decent run for sure. Wouldn't mind seeing a phase with the southern disturbance. Otherwise we still just have an open northern wave ... very quick storm without much banding.

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It's a decent run for sure. Wouldn't mind seeing a phase with the southern disturbance. Otherwise we still just have an open northern wave ... very quick storm without much banding.

Well if it phases with the southern stream at that longitude, it will probably run up the Hudson Valley or something horrible like that...a phase would be nice, but somewhere over the SE coast or something.

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