CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 With a lobe of the PV coming down and Gulf moisture trying to gather, you can see how explosive things could be after the 10th, but there are a lot of things that need to happen. It's gotta time things and dig just right. It's trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The 1st wave looks to screw the pooch for the second storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 So if more energy is left behind..I'm guessing it also has the storm on 11-12? Ots but getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Kev in his chair rocking back and forth staring out the window at the bare grass, singing softly to himself.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Why are you posting a face in a vagina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 With a lobe of the PV coming down and Gulf moisture trying to gather, you can see how explosive things could be after the 10th, but there are a lot of things that need to happen. It's gotta time things and dig just right. It's trying. Yeah its like a loaded gun in Texas ready to shoot northeast if energy can dive down and meet up with it. There's also that area of the southeast coast that misses us on the 10th. But there is complete lack of run to run consistency on handling multiple features so its impossible to guess how this plays out. Even that Feb 9 threat is a disaster on the models with like 2-3 pieces of leftover energy from the Rex block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah its like a loaded gun in Texas ready to shoot northeast if energy can dive down and meet up with it. There's also that area of the southeast coast that misses us on the 10th. But there is complete lack of run to run consistency on handling multiple features so its impossible to guess how this plays out. Even that Feb 9 threat is a disaster on the models with like 2-3 pieces of leftover energy from the Rex block. And then look what happens. We lose the big ridge as the PAC jet knocks down the ridging after hr 144. If that ridge held, it might have dug enough to spawn a low near the MA or something. Just goes to show you how complicated it is. Although, now block forming up north, so lets see if it tries to send s/w's from nw to se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah its like a loaded gun in Texas ready to shoot northeast if energy can dive down and meet up with it. There's also that area of the southeast coast that misses us on the 10th. But there is complete lack of run to run consistency on handling multiple features so its impossible to guess how this plays out. Even that Feb 9 threat is a disaster on the models with like 2-3 pieces of leftover energy from the Rex block. I'm surprised with all the lack of run to run consistency, off all the model runs and all the different models (GFS, ECM, GGEM, etc) we haven't seen some bomb solutions. Sure some of them give some snow, but I'm surprised we haven't seen anything really blow up yet. Usually in these volitile situations we usually see a few weenie runs with like 980 going over the Canal, mixed in with half of them going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 And then look what happens. We lose the big ridge as the PAC jet knocks down the ridging after hr 144. If that ridge held, it might have dug enough to spawn a low near the MA or something. Just goes to show you how complicated it is. Although, now block forming up north, so lets see if it tries to send s/w's from nw to se. Looks like the western ridge rebuilds pretty quickly although unsure of the magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 And then look what happens. We lose the big ridge as the PAC jet knocks down the ridging after hr 144. If that ridge held, it might have dug enough to spawn a low near the MA or something. Just goes to show you how complicated it is. Although, now block forming up north, so lets see if it tries to send s/w's from nw to se. Yeah. Decent ridging up through Greenland, over the pole, and practically to NE Siberia. Another day and another completely different run though. The op runs are more useless than usual past d5 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm surprised with all the lack of run to run consistency, off all the model runs and all the different models (GFS, ECM, GGEM, etc) we haven't seen some bomb solutions. Sure some of them give some snow, but I'm surprised we haven't seen anything really blow up yet. Usually in these volitile situations we usually see a few weenie runs with like 980 going over the Canal, mixed in with half of them going out to sea. Well we've seen some of the ensemble members do it...but with like 4-5 moving pieces, its probably harder to get weenie runs than if you have a decent setup but only 1 or 2 moving pieces is a little off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks like the western ridge rebuilds pretty quickly although unsure of the magnitude. Awful analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah. Decent ridging up through Greenland, over the pole, and practically to NE Siberia. Another day and another completely different run though. The op runs are more useless than usual past d5 right now. You said it. They are a complete disaster beyond day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The northern stream energy is just never gonna get it done RE: 10-12th even if the trough axis is positioned decently as it seems to be on the Euro. Unless we can get a decent southern stream system to come up and phase/partially phase ...I see little hope short of that. Otherwise it's a clipper for Vim Toot and an arctic front windex event for the rest. The 8-9th is a mess of competing short waves...where have I seen this before... Maybe we can lock in a general 1 to 4 inch event. LOL I'll take the 2 inches the Euro throws me ..then the February 9th sun will take it away from me in a few hours time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm just not seeing the northern stream energy diving south enough on most models runs over the last day. It's a nice PV and sharp trough (at a favorable longitude), but general theme seems to be it doesn't extend far enough south. Yeah its like a loaded gun in Texas ready to shoot northeast if energy can dive down and meet up with it. There's also that area of the southeast coast that misses us on the 10th. But there is complete lack of run to run consistency on handling multiple features so its impossible to guess how this plays out. Even that Feb 9 threat is a disaster on the models with like 2-3 pieces of leftover energy from the Rex block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Euro ensembles definitely have both the Feb 9 and Feb 11 system on their mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Euro ensembles definitely have both the Feb 9 and Feb 11 system on their mean. Thats good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 With our luck, it will develop along the front and blow up to our north..lol. In all seriousness...could potentially be a strong storm for someone if it can phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Euro ensembles definitely have both the Feb 9 and Feb 11 system on their mean. Locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 North of the pike... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 North of the pike... Chances are decent you guys miss both these events that far north..You've had yours..it's our turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Chances are decent you guys miss both these events that far north..You've had yours..it's our turn I doubt it but i threw that in there because i know you love that term..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Chances are decent you guys miss both these events that far north..You've had yours..it's our turn Probably best to compromise. Along the pike for the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I dunno... I think the Mainers have a better shot of a last minute Miller B-esq development purely northern stream ...whereas down here we are more at the mercy of getting the southern stream to phase in time. Chances are decent you guys miss both these events that far north..You've had yours..it's our turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 18Z GFS is getting there, nice 2-4 for the 8th then better for the 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 GFS is weird in that it has 2 shortwaves that both produce light snow...one on Feb 8 and then again on Feb 9...neither all that much, but maybe 1-3" between them...unlikely it pas out like that as one s/w will probably be more dominant. The Feb 11 threat is definitely there as it scrapes us with another light event, but not far from being a bigger deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 With a lobe of the PV coming down and Gulf moisture trying to gather, you can see how explosive things could be after the 10th, but there are a lot of things that need to happen. It's gotta time things and dig just right. It's trying. Ots but getting there. Looks great at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 GFS is weird in that it has 2 shortwaves that both produce light snow...one on Feb 8 and then again on Feb 9...neither all that much, but maybe 1-3" between them...unlikely it pas out like that as one s/w will probably be more dominant. The Feb 11 threat is definitely there as it scrapes us with another light event, but not far from being a bigger deal. such a strong signal, PV orientation and all. Getting closer to the time when things become more believable and clearer. Next week should be a fun week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks great at H5. 3 G post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 18z gfs... the Feb 10-12 threat is not going away... plenty of time to sort out i) which piece of energy to focus on ii) to see more interaction of northern and southern stream shortwaves to decide if we get a mecs vs. fropa-embedded energy... but the larger synoptic ingredients are there for a decent east coast snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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