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The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

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  On 2/7/2012 at 6:34 PM, CT Blizz said:

I bet we see the magnitude of that cold back off as we closer. Seems like the Euro always gets too cold and then slowly backs off

It does have a habit of digging troughs too far se, but the GFS hinted at it too. Your comment is certainly valid though.

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  On 2/7/2012 at 6:34 PM, CT Blizz said:

I bet we see the magnitude of that cold back off as we closer. Seems like the Euro always gets too cold and then slowly backs off

very possible...if not likely.

it also has a different evolution than most guidance as it hangs some energy back which really allows the PV to drop south as opposed to lifting out which is what most products do.

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  On 2/7/2012 at 6:39 PM, ETauntonMA said:

It's definitely not far off from something more substantial. On the other side it's also not far off from a whiff.

The Euro is very close to making something big for us. It tries to get the northern and southern streams to come together......but they are off by just a touch and come together just off shore.

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  On 2/7/2012 at 6:43 PM, weatherMA said:

The weekend seems up in the air...00z runs tonight should be interesting. I wish tomorrow would've worked out...it's so close to something decent.

Yeah, my wife is supposed to run a snowshoe field trip in Northfield Thursday. No snow otg there.

It will basically be a hike in the woods. Oh, well

Let's see where the models take us wrt this weekend.

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  On 2/7/2012 at 6:43 PM, weatherMA said:

The weekend seems up in the air...00z runs tonight should be interesting. I wish tomorrow would've worked out...it's so close to something decent.

The fact that no models show at least a moderate event (even the jma ) leads me to believe were high dry and cold for the weekend. Just my opinion and to my liking.. no snow, means golf early!

Its happened ALL season.. day 7-8 threat.. dissapear... rinse repeat rinse repeat

Enjoy your trace

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  On 2/7/2012 at 6:49 PM, snowNH said:

The fact that no models show at least a moderate event (even the jma ) leads me to believe were high dry and cold for the weekend. Just my opinion and to my liking.. no snow, means golf early!

Enjoy your trace

I like the golf early bit....but some snow would be nice.....I think.

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I have no clue about the guy, but did anyone else read Alex S's take on this weakend on Accuwx?

"However, there is a possibility that cold air will hit a disturbance along the coast at just the right time to cause a storm to spin up rapidly and unload heavy snow in part of the region Saturday into Saturday night.

We want to stress that by no means is the storm a certainty, but we are rather just pointing out the potential for a rapidly-evolving snow event.

Areas in eastern New England on up through the Maritimes have a better chance of accumulating snow in this scenario as the feature is more likely to take a left turn later rather than sooner."

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  On 2/7/2012 at 6:51 PM, HubbDave said:

I have no clue about the guy, but did anyone else read Alex S's take on this weakend on Accuwx?

"However, there is a possibility that cold air will hit a disturbance along the coast at just the right time to cause a storm to spin up rapidly and unload heavy snow in part of the region Saturday into Saturday night.

We want to stress that by no means is the storm a certainty, but we are rather just pointing out the potential for a rapidly-evolving snow event.

Areas in eastern New England on up through the Maritimes have a better chance of accumulating snow in this scenario as the feature is more likely to take a left turn later rather than sooner."

Eastern MA special.

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  On 2/7/2012 at 6:51 PM, HubbDave said:

I have no clue about the guy, but did anyone else read Alex S's take on this weakend on Accuwx?

"However, there is a possibility that cold air will hit a disturbance along the coast at just the right time to cause a storm to spin up rapidly and unload heavy snow in part of the region Saturday into Saturday night.

We want to stress that by no means is the storm a certainty, but we are rather just pointing out the potential for a rapidly-evolving snow event.

Areas in eastern New England on up through the Maritimes have a better chance of accumulating snow in this scenario as the feature is more likely to take a left turn later rather than sooner."

actually nothing new here: this prog was true almost a week ago... see Ginx's post starting this thread Feb 1 for that reason, and GFS had several days of runs with a near phase that, if occurring earlier, could affect eastern areas...

EDIT: and to be as complete as possible, Will / Tip had mentioned this weekend as a target even before a week ago

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  On 2/7/2012 at 6:49 PM, snowNH said:

The fact that no models show at least a moderate event (even the jma ) leads me to believe were high dry and cold for the weekend. Just my opinion and to my liking.. no snow, means golf early!

Its happened ALL season.. day 7-8 threat.. dissapear... rinse repeat rinse repeat

Enjoy your trace

Take a break scout. I can't figure out if you're 15 or 35 lol

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  On 2/7/2012 at 7:06 PM, ETauntonMA said:

Not a negative trend in the Euro this PM.

For future runs, I'd personally like to see the northern piece of energy dig further S over TN/KY rather then IN/OH which would likely allow for a better surface reflection along the E MA coastline.

There is a lot of us that would, Further south would be sharper trough and amplifiaction as it drops in the backside

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  On 2/7/2012 at 7:08 PM, Dryslot said:

There is a lot of us that would, Further south would be sharper trough and amplifiaction as it drops in the backside

Troughs have trended Less sharp and broader all year.. there is no reason to expect a sharper trough with this one.. actually I'm expecting a broader trough than it is now

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  On 2/7/2012 at 7:15 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

One of the few times this year where arctic air is involved..That combined with the high SST's = powderkeg.

It would be better to have a more concise and concentrated vortmax too. The upper level support has to be there, along with a good baroclinic area.

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