weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We all now understand that this is a dead ratter winter here and Pete is in AK probably afk so he won't be refuting these facts until his return. But even I am astounded at the end to end nature of the warmth. 1. During met winter, of the first 62 days, 47 were above normal. Make it 48 of 63 using today. 2. Of the first 93 days since 11/1 (counting today), 69 have been above normal. 3. October finished with 6 consecutive below normal days. Prior to that there was 1 for the month. So 123 days since 10/1 have had 93 above normal. 4. We had 4 consecutive below normal days in mid January. Prior to then, the last time we had >3 below normal days was October. The last 10 days have all been above normal with 7 being double digits, one at 9, 2 at 7. Joe's thread is delayed but certainly not denied. When will it end....when will it end...when will it end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We all now understand that this is a dead ratter winter here and Pete is in AK probably afk so he won't be refuting these facts until his return. But even I am astounded at the end to end nature of the warmth. 1. During met winter, of the first 62 days, 47 were above normal. Make it 48 of 63 using today. 2. Of the first 93 days since 11/1 (counting today), 69 have been above normal. 3. October finished with 6 consecutive below normal days. Prior to that there was 1 for the month. So 123 days since 10/1 have had 93 above normal. 4. We had 4 consecutive below normal days in mid January. Prior to then, the last time we had >3 below normal days was October. The last 10 days have all been above normal with 7 being double digits, one at 9, 2 at 7. Joe's thread is delayed but certainly not denied. When will it end....when will it end...when will it end. Great stats, see my CFS 2 map in the other thread,starts March 10th complete March 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Today I noticed daffodils and snow drops sprouting in the sunny spots of the yard. Gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Today I noticed daffodils and snow drops sprouting in the sunny spots of the yard. Gross I have photos of my crocuses by my driveway sprouting as well as dayliliies in the back by the hot tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We have dwarf hyacinths poking thru the ground in an area with absolutely no sun at this time of year. Also a few crocuses and daffodils fighting their way thru the leaves in another part of the yard. Leaving work early to go for a hike in the Blue Hills. sure glad I didn't invest in new snow shoes this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Is that data from BOS/Logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I have photos of my crocuses by my driveway sprouting as well as dayliliies in the back by the hot tub. I like winter and snow as much as anyone (arguable), but it's really really nice out this afternoon. Just sayin'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We all now understand that this is a dead ratter winter here and Pete is in AK probably afk so he won't be refuting these facts until his return. But even I am astounded at the end to end nature of the warmth. 1. During met winter, of the first 62 days, 47 were above normal. Make it 48 of 63 using today. 2. Of the first 93 days since 11/1 (counting today), 69 have been above normal. 3. October finished with 6 consecutive below normal days. Prior to that there was 1 for the month. So 123 days since 10/1 have had 93 above normal. 4. We had 4 consecutive below normal days in mid January. Prior to then, the last time we had >3 below normal days was October. The last 10 days have all been above normal with 7 being double digits, one at 9, 2 at 7. Joe's thread is delayed but certainly not denied. When will it end....when will it end...when will it end. Nice Fella, great way to put numbers on what pros / we / laypeople have all voiced... this winter is off-the-charts anomalous! I wonder if there is an easy metric to compare this to other seasons and whether there is any precedent... Are there other years with so many days above normal? And how does this compare to the top-5 years on the futility record? One metric might be heating degree days... I know this year we are -342 since Dec 1. But I don't know where I can find HDD records for previous years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Today I noticed daffodils and snow drops sprouting in the sunny spots of the yard. Gross I have photos of my crocuses by my driveway sprouting as well as dayliliies in the back by the hot tub. That's actually not too unusual. Crocus are a subalpine flower designed to bloom through snow. I think daffodils are in the same family. But still, it's been warm! I'll have to go through my own stats and see what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Is that data from BOS/Logan? Yes. And I suspect the rest of the SNE locales are similar. Probably a bit better up your way but still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This is what I was suggesting... heating degree days (using a baseline temp of 25F) through Jan 31: 2009-2010......85.4 2010-2011......79.5 2011-2012......43.3 Anyone have access to records further back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nice Fella, great way to put numbers on what pros / we / laypeople have all voiced... this winter is off-the-charts anomalous! I wonder if there is an easy metric to compare this to other seasons and whether there is any precedent... Are there other years with so many days above normal? And how does this compare to the top-5 years on the futility record? One metric might be heating degree days... I know this year we are -342 since Dec 1. But I don't know where I can find HDD records for previous years... per c shabbott (doesn't post on am wx as much as he used to on eastern - if at all) "so Dec 1 through Feb 15 will have a 50 HDD lead on 2001-2002 for warmer winter in 1950-pres on national Gas HDD basis" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 per c shabbott (doesn't post on am wx as much as he used to on eastern - if at all) "so Dec 1 through Feb 15 will have a 50 HDD lead on 2001-2002 for warmer winter in 1950-pres on national Gas HDD basis" interesting, with 2001-02 being the 15.1" futility winter, 12.9" of which already fell by Jan 31 2002 what does he mean by "lead"? that we have a higher HDD this winter vs. 2001-02 (meaning it was colder this year than 2001-02)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 interesting, with 2001-02 being the 15.1" futility winter, 12.9" of which already fell by Jan 31 2002 what does he mean by "lead"? that we have a higher HDD this winter vs. 2001-02 (meaning it was colder this year than 2001-02)? I think he means 50 HDD less this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 My standard for that elephant is 2010 - from 2/8 thru 3/25 I recorded 46 consecutive days above normal. Hope to never see that again. CAR was even worse; their streak began on 2/7 so it was 47 days, and for JFMA they had above normal 99 of 120 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I think he means 50 HDD less this year. that's really impressive... you'll see from the numbers I posted (which are not the best measure because they use a steady baseline temp 25F) that a 50 HDD difference is huge through Jan 31... i'd be really interested to see the temp deviations you posted above (# days above normal) in other futility years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 My standard for that elephant is 2010 - from 2/8 thru 3/25 I recorded 46 consecutive days above normal. Hope to never see that again. CAR was even worse; their streak began on 2/7 so it was 47 days, and for JFMA they had above normal 99 of 120 days. 2nd crap winter in 3 years for us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 and damn are we close on the heels of the granddaddy... (i should probably post this in the futility thread): snowfall through Jan 31: Record futility 1936-37..... 7.1" This year 2011-12..........7.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This thread makes me feel very very ill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We all now understand that this is a dead ratter winter here and Pete is in AK probably afk so he won't be refuting these facts until his return. But even I am astounded at the end to end nature of the warmth. 1. During met winter, of the first 62 days, 47 were above normal. Make it 48 of 63 using today. 2. Of the first 93 days since 11/1 (counting today), 69 have been above normal. 3. October finished with 6 consecutive below normal days. Prior to that there was 1 for the month. So 123 days since 10/1 have had 93 above normal. 4. We had 4 consecutive below normal days in mid January. Prior to then, the last time we had >3 below normal days was October. The last 10 days have all been above normal with 7 being double digits, one at 9, 2 at 7. Joe's thread is delayed but certainly not denied. When will it end....when will it end...when will it end. Yeah …I don’t know. Nice negative AO and it’s doing nothing for us. Oh well – it was our last hope to recuperate winter. If it’s going to defy physical law so be it… Starting to look like that barb about 2011-2012 consisting of 4 seasons, Spring, Summer, Autumn, Autumn …may have had some merit - haha ORH since July 2012: July +2.8 August +0.7 September +3.4 October +1.6 November +6.5 December +6.6 January +5.0 February ??? From late Jan 2010 through late November of that year there were 10 consecutive months of above normal temperatures - interestingly, occuring primarily during the warm months perhaps making it less noticeable. But the departures in that era were quite similar to these above. Not intending to say the two multi-month episodes are linked, but last winter cut into that 10 months streak just perfectly in time for snow arrival in late December. It stayed negative for several months into Spring, then flipped again in mid summer. It is interesting that Auguest almost failed to make the grade considering we had a 3 day heat wave that apexed 102-107F in a lot of locales (records fell). Other than that intriguing Sonaron heat release (for Scott - haha), it hasn't been a very interesting journey - not for me anyway. The only thing Meteorologically interesting to have taken place across that time span listed above was the October snow bomb. Well, August heat wave was impressive. That month was above average in temperature, too Eh, goes to show ... well time cold with S/W riding out underneath - boom. Skews the whole winter. The Coastal Plain is still in line for futility, but alot of these inland areas are truly butt banged for sensible winter weather lust. That October thing ... I guarantee everyone on this board would hand back in a heart beat if it mean recouping even a menial output during DJF. But... we put our dreams away. Anyway, wondering if we are heading for another 10 month stretch. Could scorch in May and June, and then lose out to a cold tail-end summer, cool autumn, December '08 redux, then lose next January. Kinda Farmer's Almanacian sounding perhaps... But it does sometimes seem more so than not that these longer term bias tendencies repeat. Ah, who knows. Bottom line is this can't be more frustrating for you winter folk. You got the EPO diving, the AO heavily doved, the PNA persisting positive and even boosting more so at D7-10, and nothing to show - certainly these model runs are about as anticlimatic relative to those combined teleconnector arguments as could imaginatively be. And it's verifying too... 60F here at the office today in middle Mass. It's just one day, but we keep puking up these ever 4 or 5 days and the months just unrelentingly wind up positive. I think most on here would prefer not having their winters taken away... But, just the same, we've had a lot of dramatic weather around these parts during 2011, and 2012 is just too darn early to throw in the can. We had an unprecedented 60-75" of snow in like 33 days or whatever, regionally, Jan into early Feb. We had tornadoes in June, and the whole area was like a meso factory that month for that matter. Then we had ball -popping heat waves the drove the mercury to Hades and back. The tropical season left something to be desired, but that's par for the course 'round deez pahts. We did still have a coastal impactor. October was stunner to me, when we had 5 days with 82/69 type heat and humidity mid month, and a couple rainy days where the DP was 70F!! - come to think of it, I wonder if we should have started to wonder, then. But then the snow storm hit to strategically diverge our attention, no doubt! ahahha That's a helluva resume 2011 has actually. Purely coincidence as it is, the atmosphere taking a couple months off from the old severity throttle might just be odds playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Tip LOl on the you winter folk comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Jerry's elephant squashed his squirrels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Tip LOl on the you winter folk comment I think "you", meant him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Tip LOl on the you winter folk comment Ha ha... eh, I'm honestly more in that ilk in November into December. If we get to any given mid January and chaos still won't pull out, I just start ignoring things in lieu of other hobbies. I mean ...what's the point, at that point. Can't do anything to change it so no grousing. At this point, I really am not IN that ilk and have checked out for about 30 weeks. I still pay attention to things because I like weather events...duh. But I'm not waiting around on anything other than the spring and lilacs and girls in shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I think "you", meant him. No .. to be fair I really meant you to mean, "those still holding out for winter's return". If it happens...alright, pile it on... But it's not coveted in my mind like the prospect in November. I'm much more avid for cold signals and storm ideas around TG than I am on any given Feb 1 barren of any play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Interestingly where we've been so consistently warm, and so jaw droppingly opposite of last winter's roof collapsing snow paste, scores are dying across a good deal of Europe from severe Siberian cold, parts of Alaska are buried in epic snowfalls, and Japan in the quake disaster area north of Tokyo is experiencing the great white heaps. Obviously the regime of extremes continues around the world. As for us, he roulette wheel of fortune has us stopped on easy street with a capital E-- for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 BOS has been colder than '01-'02 using average temp and HDD (same thing actually)....'01-'02 up to this point was: Dec: 40.5F Jan: 36.7F In 2011-2012, BOS is: Dec: 40.0F Jan: 34.2F HDD are 1,713 for Dec/Jan 2011-2012 and 1,622 for 2001-2002 Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 BOS has been colder than '01-'02 using average temp and HDD (same thing actually)....'01-'02 up to this point was: Dec: 40.5F Jan: 36.7F In 2011-2012, BOS is: Dec: 40.0F Jan: 34.2F HDD are 1,713 for Dec/Jan 2011-2012 and 1,622 for 2001-2002 Dec/Jan. I wonder if any of that is SST proxied - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 BOS has been colder than '01-'02 using average temp and HDD (same thing actually)....'01-'02 up to this point was: Dec: 40.5F Jan: 36.7F In 2011-2012, BOS is: Dec: 40.0F Jan: 34.2F HDD are 1,713 for Dec/Jan 2011-2012 and 1,622 for 2001-2002 Dec/Jan. thanks will where can you find this data and how far back does it go? i'm wondering about other futility years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 thanks will where can you find this data and how far back does it go? i'm wondering about other futility years Here's avg temp from '02 and back. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bosave.shtml This winter will need to crush the warmest February on record to catch '01-'02...that's how warm that winter was. But we can finish 2nd warmest if we have a pretty warm February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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