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February Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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Roger Smith

Forecast models seem to have divided into two camps, the GFS/GEM strengthen the blocking and eventually push the cold air back west of the U.K. into Ireland (where it is being expelled today) but the Euro and UKMO seem more disposed to keep pushing weak Atlantic fronts further east setting the boundary back into Germany to eastern France.

What it all implies for the northeast U.S., I would say, is that the chances for colder weather improve gradually if not dramatically as at least a weak blocking regime should develop further west as well. Of course, it's more significant for the northeast that a very warm ridge is developing across the west coast, we could easily be out on the golf course here this weekend. I believe the torch pattern just ended and won't reload except in minor near-normal episodes, meanwhile, colder air masses will get more of a green light from a northwesterly flow developing across central Canada towards southern Quebec. If we can get a vortex to deepen over Quebec then at least colder temperatures will lock in, storm track may stay largely offshore however unless we then see that vortex linking to any troughing further west around Nebraska. Looks more like a Miller-B type signal than Miller-A for snow potential later in the month. If a big storm does develop as I've said in my LRF, would expect the track of it to be something like TN-VA-NS. There's even something vaguely 1888 or 1993-like about this long slow buildup. Could be pointing to the one huge late storm outcome.

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This is from a Meteorologist regarding the Euro. Jim Rinaldi.

For those that heard the radio show I did earlier, this is exactly what I was talking about. The ridge builds in the west and forces the cold air into the east. And the AAO is indeed headed negative. So there very well may be something to this. .

What is the AA0?

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This is what Roger Smith posted in the middle of January.

Due to the nature of this forecast, I will make it very brief. The annual number crunch for my research method reveals a very mild pattern for the Great Lakes and northeast lasting through much of December and January, but a flip-flop to a very cold pattern by end of February into March. This seems a lot like 1967 as an analogue, so it suggests the wait for big-time winter storms may require patience, but could eventually be rewarded, by a developing strong storm track dropping south from a position through the Great Lakes in late January to the east coast in February.

Would say that large anomalies are favoured in the pattern suggested, so could see anomalies of +4F or greater in December and January, and -4 F or lower in February.

The severe cold suggested for February will probably pool over central Canada and the north central states from late November to mid-January to fire up a storm track that will run something like KS-MN early in the season, MO-MI later in January, and eventually GA-seVA-NS by February, as the severe cold pool is drained out by deflation of a persistent east coast ridge in the first half of winter.

Big storm dates for the east coast -- Feb 15-25 looks best.

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This winter is causing all of the weenies, like myself, to go into insanity and madness praying that maybe we'll see a couple of flakes from this. Mother nature is breaking the hearts of all weenies, but maybe there's still hope for this winter, if only barely.

You'd think that you guys hadn't just had a near record-breaking winter last season... :whistle:

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