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February Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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More so though down in Atlantic, Cumberland and Cape May counties of NJ. They are almost always rain when most of us are snow. (historically speaking of course when it comes to the bigger storms) Obviously the past couple of years were an exception.

Agree. Here are AC's totals since 2001 (far right value)

2001-2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6

2002-2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 3.6 33.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.3

2003-2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.9 2.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 16.9

2004-2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.8 8.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9

2005-2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 4.7 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.2

2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.9 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5

2007-2008 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 2.6 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0

2008-2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.8 3.2 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3

2009-2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 8.9 36.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.1

2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.9 13.4 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.0

Cape May:

2001-2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.1

2002-2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 6.6 27.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.5

2003-2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 6.8 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0c 0.0 13.0

2004-2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.9 4.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9

2005-2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.8 3.3 0.1c 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5

2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 3.7 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9

2007-2008 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 1.7 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0

2008-2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.4 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3

2009-2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 11.9 36.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.2

2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.6 9.4P 4.4P 0.0P 0.0P 0.0P 0.0P 30.4P

2011-2012 0.0P 0.0P 0.0P 0.0b,P

Versus New Brunswick:

2001-2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0a 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5

2002-2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.2 5.4 28.4 0.4 5.4 0.0 0.0 51.1

2003-2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.2 10.3 0.2 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1

2004-2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 16.8 10.9 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.8

2005-2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.1 20.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 32.0

2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 1.8 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7

2007-2008 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.6 6.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9

2008-2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 3.1 7.3 4.8 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.9

2009-2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 1.9 37.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.5

2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.5 31.2P 1.7P 1.5P 0.0P 0.0a,P 0.0P 53.9P

IMBY in Monmouth, we've done very well. My totals:

01-02: 4"

02-03: 55"

03-04: 43"

04-05: 47"

05-06: 32"

06-07: 12"

07-08: 8"

08-09: 29.5"

09-10: 72"

10-11: 57.5"

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I guess we have to talk about the weekend potential in this thread since John closed the other thread. :banned:

You'd think the GEM showed a blockbuster with all the talk about how its more phased than the GFS... in fact I don't think any model shows more than 3" snowfall for NYC (and that's the JMA which shows that much).

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You'd think the GEM showed a blockbuster with all the talk about how its more phased than the GFS... in fact I don't think any model shows more than 3" snowfall for NYC (and that's the JMA which shows that much).

It's the difference between no snow and some snow.

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Not one of the 18Z GFS ensemble members went south or east of where it was at 12Z, as a matter of fact all of them came north and the bottom 4 members the P007-P0010 all came markedly north. The worst news at 18Z came from the RGEM which I felt took a pronounced step towards the NAM but its still hard to tell where it would go beyond 48 hours. I would think this would still be unlikely to come far enough north to bring measurable snow much north of NYC but C-NJ has a shot to do pretty well with this if we can get any sort of phasing between the 2 disturbances,

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I guess we have to talk about the weekend potential in this thread since John closed the other thread. :banned:

i lol'd when i saw that because anyone who had hope for this weekend got shut down. The funny thing is it has been shut down for a while now and my call is any snow that does fall won't get north of philly.

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Very true statement.  I believe that our luck changed with the March 1, 2009 storm and the last two winters were simply unbelieveable.  We actually had snow over snow from 2 previous storms in Feb 2010.  I never remember seeing that down here before.  When I lived up in Mahwah back in 1994 I saw something like that, though.  This area in Feb 2010 was really crippled and i did not have power nor heat for a week.

Yup, and the 10/29/2011 storm was the indicator that our luck streak was coming to an end. That was the polar opposite of the March 2009 storm, which was a precursor to the upcoming 2 epic winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. We will never see a repeat of the epic 2000-2010 decade for snowfall until the 2040s most likely according to this chart:GTEMPS.gifP.S. - This post was mostly aimed to scare Metfan. :lol:

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Also, we should never hope for an early snowfall every again!

Not going to lie, on the day of that October event these were the thoughts going through my head, "Oh boy, I wonder what this means for the winter, for some reason I remember a stat that showed a relationship between Oct snow accum and a clunker winter."

Of course the Oct event didn't "cause" our bad winter, and there really isn't a correlation b/t the two, but still, if I had my choice -- hold off on the snow until December.

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Think you've seen modeling inconsistency here? Check out the NAM snow forecast for the plains for a storm already occurring. There are areas that the 12z NAM gave 0 inches of snow, that the 00z NAM gives 24 inches of snow. Boxing Day trend on HGH?

12z: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif

00z: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif

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wow at the nam

HGH/Test combo for east central NEB

extremely dynamic setup...surface low is "weak" in terms of pressure but strong in terms of dynamics driving it. powerhouse shortwave and terrific jet set up for banding.

beautiful h7 comma head and dry slot as well as thermal packing evident at 850mb.

miss seeing this on our side of the country.

http://www.meteo.psu...CENT_0z/f36.gif

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extremely dynamic setup...surface low is "weak" in terms of pressure but strong in terms of dynamics driving it. powerhouse shortwave and terrific jet set up for banding.

beautiful h7 comma head and dry slot as well as thermal packing evident at 850mb.

miss seeing this on our side of the country.

http://www.meteo.psu...CENT_0z/f36.gif

The last dynamic snowstorm was Jan 26 2011... OR February 1-2 2011 for Midwest, now that was one hell of dynamic event.

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Think you've seen modeling inconsistency here? Check out the NAM snow forecast for the plains for a storm already occurring. There are areas that the 12z NAM gave 0 inches of snow, that the 00z NAM gives 24 inches of snow. Boxing Day trend on HGH?

12z: http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/snow60.gif

00z: http://www.meteo.psu...S_0z/snow60.gif

that is insane.

amazing how we saw that off our coast 3 times last year

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