blizzardof09 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Imagine IF we had gotten the Mar 5, 2001 storm as progged. That winter would have been up there with the greats. Without a doubt near the top of the nesis scale your probably wouldve been talking from philly to boston 2 feet being the norm with that storm. Besides 03 after that storm there hadnt been a storm that moved as slow as that one just turned and turned. It wouldve been epic for sure, remember paul kocin vividly saying during the forecast that he wouldnt be surprised if people couldnt get out of there houses the next day around the nyc metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Imagine IF we had gotten the Mar 5, 2001 storm as progged. That winter would have been up there with the greats. The funny thing about the winter of 2000-01 was how close it came to being a good deal better than it might have been and how close it came to being a good deal worse than it was out here in Port Jeff. There were three major srorms that winter....12/30/00....2/5/01...and 3/5/01. With the 12/30/00 event Port Jeff had 9.0 inches ending as a period of sleet...but as close as 7 or 8 miles to my west, there was no changeover and close to 13.0 inches was reported (and of course, in NJ, there were many reports in excess of 20 inches). However, as close as 20 miles to east, amounts dwindled down to around 3 inches with a mostly rain event and the eastern tip at Montauk saw but a trace of snow. As foir the 2/5/01 event, rain changed to snow during the late afternoon and came down hard for about 10 hours. We measured 7.7 inches out here. But just 15 miles across the Sound, Bridgeport had 11.0 inches and 15 miles or so to the NW of them, Danbury had 19.0 inches. In contrast, just 10 or so miles to my south on the S. Shore of L.I. the changeover to snow was even slower...and many areas saw only 2 or 3 inches. Perhaps the most interesting storm of the 3 was the 3/5/01 event. Hyped for days as the second coming of the Blizzard of '88, the storm generally failed to live up to advanced billing. However, again, as in the February storm, rain changed to snow during late afternoon and began to fall moderately into the evening out here. Strangely, the edge of the precip shield seemed semi-stationary, just 10 or so miles to my west...one of the few times I can recall luck working in my favor. Anyways, snow never came down particularly hard and the wind barely blew, but, after about 36 hours or so of snowfall, a respectable 13.5" of snow piled up out here....while amounts to my west in the NYC metro area were generally closer to 4 or 5 inches. When all was said and done I measured 50 inches of snow for the 2000-01 winter here in Port Jefferson; a figure backed up by the 51.2 inches measured at the NWS office in nearby Upton. So, all in all, a good winter that came perilously close to being not nearly so good...but with a little luck...could have been even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 another week another torch, temps in the 50's later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Euro has a big ridge in the east. Woohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Still in storm mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Lets look back at last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 DT land got 5 inches of snow yesterday. More than what I have for the whole winter 0_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 another week another torch, temps in the 50's later this week I'm not sure if 50's is considered torch. Not every week has been a torch. Above normal... Yes... Torch ... not really ... Atleast since the last few days of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'm not sure if 50's is considered torch. Not every week has been a torch. Above normal... Yes... Torch ... not really ... Atleast since the last few days of Jan. in my area, today and tomorrow are in the mid 40's about 5-7 above normal, Wed through fri are 52-54 about 7-10 above...it's definitely on the edge of torchdome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Probably a result of the NAM's differences with the southern shortwave, as it's noticeably slower than the rest of the models with the cutoff in the SW US. None of the other models show a secondary low the way that the DGEX does, instead focusing on the first one while even giving it a negative tilt. Maybe the NAM could be trying to signal something, but given its lower accuracy in its hour 60-84 hour range, I wouldn't count on its exact solution, as it also tried to do some weird things 84 hours out with yesterday's storm. If the storm does follow the current expectation, it wouldn't surprise me to see temperatures surge into the low 60s along with rain and maybe even thunderstorms along I-95; to me, the currently modeled set up looks like a classic mid-winter warmth/rain/wind type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Probably a result of the NAM's differences with the southern shortwave, as it's noticeably slower than the rest of the models with the cutoff in the SW US. None of the other models show a secondary low the way that the DGEX does, instead focusing on the first one while even giving it a negative tilt. Maybe the NAM could be trying to signal something, but given its lower accuracy in its hour 60-84 hour range, I wouldn't count on its exact solution, as it also tried to do some weird things 84 hours out with yesterday's storm. If the storm does follow the current expectation, it wouldn't surprise me to see temperatures surge into the low 60s along with rain and maybe even thunderstorms along I-95; to me, the currently modeled set up looks like a classic mid-winter warmth/rain/wind type of event. GFS is close to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 This winter has been crazy. It feels like a never even started. Early to mid november type weather all winter long. I'm not complaining too much cuz I save a lot of money on oil this year. The ocean water temperature is around 45 degrees. Last year the ocean temperature was 45 degrees in mid april To me february 20th is a significant date. The sun angle at solar noon is at 38 degrees which is the same solar noon sun angle at orlando at their winter solstice. I just hope that this dry pattern does not last into the spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Yeah one of the things that hasn't been addressed is that not only is this a warm snowless winter, but by and large has been quite dry. If we get hot early like last year and don't see decent rainfall in the spring than we could be looking at our first real drought in quite some time. We've had so much moisture the past 8, 9 years that I don't remember anything more than a couple dry spells. This winter has been crazy. It feels like a never even started. Early to mid november type weather all winter long. I'm not complaining too much cuz I save a lot of money on oil this year. The ocean water temperature is around 45 degrees. Last year the ocean temperature was 45 degrees in mid april To me february 20th is a significant date. The sun angle at solar noon is at 38 degrees which is the same solar noon sun angle at orlando at their winter solstice. I just hope that this dry pattern does not last into the spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Central Park, with a warm final week, can make a run at warmest winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Central Park, with a warm final week, can make a run at warmest winter ever. and close to zero snow for Feb. .2 of an inch month to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It's worth tracking day 4-5 and around day 10 only because there's not much else to do. I'm not interested in severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The euro shifted the big storm east. I am going to hope it shifts it even more and it ends up on the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The euro shifted the big storm east. I am going to hope it shifts it even more and it ends up on the benchmark. Sorry bud , Theres nothing left in this pattern for us , If you want winter head out west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 Yeah one of the things that hasn't been addressed is that not only is this a warm snowless winter, but by and large has been quite dry. If we get hot early like last year and don't see decent rainfall in the spring than we could be looking at our first real drought in quite some time. We've had so much moisture the past 8, 9 years that I don't remember anything more than a couple dry spells. currently the new york state/city resevoirs are 8 inches above normal capacity so you would need several months in a row with below to well below average rainfall to start worrying about a drought - BUT also have to consider the lack of snow cover upstate this year http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The euro shifted the big storm east. I am going to hope it shifts it even more and it ends up on the benchmark. The next 10 days are probably our last shot at anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The next 10 days are probably our last shot at anything meaningful. No its not matt....its over...been over since january 22......just stop for a bit and look around...metfan and u have been running around thinking its coming....no way....enjoy the warmth...march is going to be a torch....its over and has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 No its not matt....its over...been over since january 22......just stop for a bit and look around...metfan and u have been running around thinking its coming....no way....enjoy the warmth...march is going to be a torch....its over and has been Agree. We are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Am I one of the few who can't wait for a torch this March? I'd love if late winter/early spring turns into a torch (kinda like March of 90 or was it 91)... temps in the 50's-low 70's (I think March 90 or 91 had a few low 80's and Early April too)... Sunny dry weather.. It would be fabulous.. Look, we took a beating this winter.. But it's over.. Who cares.. Life moves on.. We all saved a lot on our heating bills (good thing).. And our bodies were able to get a repreive from last years crazy winter of shoveling etc.. A beautiful March and April w/ temps in the 50's to near 70 would be amazing.. I just hope It continues into the summer.. I hate rainy May's and June's... Lets all hope that next winter is a lot more fun.. We have a lot to look forward to b/c anything will be better than this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 So since the other sub thread is not active anymore I figured I would post in here for those interested. I had to wait until last night instead of Sunday, but I went through with it and it was definitly worth it Makes me wish I had lived on campus when I went to college, I could have been getting girls like this years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The next 10 days are probably our last shot at anything meaningful. Yup, a meaningful driving rainstorm, lol. Sometimes you and Ant need to take off the weenie googles and see the obvious. It's at the point now where there is a much better chance of seeing severe wx, then snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Am I one of the few who can't wait for a torch this March? I'd love if late winter/early spring turns into a torch (kinda like March of 90 or was it 91)... temps in the 50's-low 70's (I think March 90 or 91 had a few low 80's and Early April too)... Sunny dry weather.. It would be fabulous.. Look, we took a beating this winter.. But it's over.. Who cares.. Life moves on.. We all saved a lot on our heating bills (good thing).. And our bodies were able to get a repreive from last years crazy winter of shoveling etc.. A beautiful March and April w/ temps in the 50's to near 70 would be amazing.. I just hope It continues into the summer.. I hate rainy May's and June's... Lets all hope that next winter is a lot more fun.. We have a lot to look forward to b/c anything will be better than this winter! At this point, I'm rooting on the torch--let's have a nice warm March and April. No chance of snow or sustained cold, so let's just go the other way--45 and sun just won't do it-give me 60-70 every day from here on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Yup, a meaningful driving rainstorm, lol. Sometimes you and Ant need to take off the weenie googles and see the obvious. It's at the point now where there is a much better chance of seeing severe wx, then snow. Speaking of which, DT put something out on this for later in the week. "ABOUT FRIDAY*** IMPORTANT WEATHER INFO-- the cold front that arrives friday looks stronger. The British and European Model develops strong surface Low over PA and NY which increase the severe weather threat mostly North of PA MD state line" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Getting severe weather north of the M/D line in Late Feb is very anomolous. Perhaps further inland, but the coastal areas won't see much, in my opinon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 So since the other sub thread is not active anymore I figured I would post in here for those interested. I had to wait until last night instead of Sunday, but I went through with it and it was definitly worth it Makes me wish I had lived on campus when I went to college, I could have been getting girls like this years ago. Get'em bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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