February Banter Thread

[pazzo83]

ewr was -.6 and nyc was -1.5, with the lowest temps for the month being 16 at ewr and 17 at nyc

Yea, and the highest max at both phl and nyc was 46. phl's lowest temp was 13. Not exactly mild.

[nzucker]

Yeah it's been a complete and utter disaster of a winter for most of the North American continent. What's the least snow on record for your area - I'm sure this year's up there. Usually in many of our crappy winters, central and northern New England still get buried. Not the case this year - even the Lake effect zones have been cheated due to the lack of strong lows pulling down arctic air behind them. It's been a benign, zonal regime with a spattering of weak short waves - nothing real energetic or powerful. Polar opposite to the intense nor'easters of the previous 2 winters.

With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a bookend type monster in mid/late March or April. I say mid march or later b/c the pattern continues to look like garbage in the coming 3 weeks with no high latitude blocking and a north pacific favoring the Western US.

In the disaster winter of 79-80, Ashburnham Mass only recorded 32.8" at the co-op, and that's about 15 minutes from here at slightly lower but similar elevation. That winter also had an early season snowstorm in October and then continued onto futility, and is one of the least snowiest winters for this region on record. Some of the early 50s winters like 53-54 and 54-55 were pretty bad in New England as well. We won't set the futility record because of the 10/29 storm that dropped 25" here but it's been useless since then.

You're correct about this being very different from winters like 07-08 or 76-77 where New England and Upstate NY cleaned up at the expense of the coastal plain...no one has had any success in the USA this winter. I think the hangover from a strong Niña last year suppressed any STJ activity compared to 10-11 when we were just coming off El Niño. Also, having the stratosphere so cold in the fall prevented much blocking from developing, and when we finally saw the -AO that some of the analogs were showing for February, the block formed too far towards Russia and dumped the cold into Central Asia and Europe. The NAO has been resistant the whole winter to any change.

Agree that the next 2-3 weeks look fairly uneventful. PAC ridge builds but well offshore, which should favor the West with a robust SE ridge being shown on modeling.

[blizzardof09]

In the disaster winter of 79-80, Ashburnham Mass only recorded 32.8" at the co-op, and that's about 15 minutes from here at slightly lower but similar elevation. That winter also had an early season snowstorm in October and then continued onto futility, and is one of the least snowiest winters for this region on record. Some of the early 50s winters like 53-54 and 54-55 were pretty bad in New England as well. We won't set the futility record because of the 10/29 storm that dropped 25" here but it's been useless since then.

You're correct about this being very different from winters like 07-08 or 76-77 where New England and Upstate NY cleaned up at the expense of the coastal plain...no one has had any success in the USA this winter. I think the hangover from a strong Niña last year suppressed any STJ activity compared to 10-11 when we were just coming off El Niño. Also, having the stratosphere so cold in the fall prevented much blocking from developing, and when we finally saw the -AO that some of the analogs were showing for February, the block formed too far towards Russia and dumped the cold into Central Asia and Europe. The NAO has been resistant the whole winter to any change.

Agree that the next 2-3 weeks look fairly uneventful. PAC ridge builds but well offshore, which should favor the West with a robust SE ridge being shown on modeling.

im really eager to see as we head deeper into this year what next winter may hold. its a ways off but im hoping we atleast get a week nina or an el nino, oh btw NO ALASKAN VORTEX!!!! LOL

[mattinpa]

2 straight runs of the weenie storm:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F19%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=240&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[Snow_Miser]

2 straight runs of the weenie storm:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

The positioning of that storm seems very similar to what the models were initially predicting where the SLP would be for today-tomorrow's storm, but the only difference is the current "storm" today and tomorrow is progged to be stronger than this GFS fantasy snowstorm.

My point is, is that there is no way that heavy of precipitation can possibly make it up to the area with that current positioning and the intensity of that area of low pressure.

That is just a case of the GFS going through trunction and producing weenie precipitation print outs whenever it's in trunction.

[blizzardof09]

2 straight runs of the weenie storm:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

with the way this years been jb would be considered an elite meteorologist on this site before that happens lol

[NYCSuburbs]

2 straight runs of the weenie storm:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

The GFS has showed these fantasy snowstorms occasionally this month, with one of them for late this week which is looking like yet another torch. Unless we're less than 100 hours out and the set up is favorable, I'm not buying any fantasy snowstorm that it shows.

[Snow_Miser]

The GFS has showed these fantasy snowstorms occasionally this month, with one of them for late this week which is looking like yet another torch. Unless we're less than 100 hours out and the set up is favorable, I'm not buying any fantasy snowstorm that it shows.

Pretty generous time out for when you trust the GFS NYC

I would trust it's exact solution 48 hours before the event.

[tmagan]

27 of the last 28 days have been above normal at Central Park.

By the end of the week, it will be 32 of 33 days above normal.

[NYCSuburbs]

Pretty generous time out for when you trust the GFS NYC

I would trust it's exact solution 48 hours before the event.

I still wouldn't completely trust any of its solution that far out, although I would take it more seriously in the 100 hour range rather than the time frame beyond 100 hours. The fantasy blizzard it had for today's event after all was after 100 hours. It tends to nail down the overall set up better in its 84 hour range, but even so it's still going to fluctuate with the smaller details, as it did with today's storm.

[SnowGoose69]

im really eager to see as we head deeper into this year what next winter may hold. its a ways off but im hoping we atleast get a week nina or an el nino, oh btw NO ALASKAN VORTEX!!!! LOL

We probably won't see an El Nino, probably a very weak La Nina or even neutral like 89-90 or 00-01. 96-97, 95-96, and 01-02 and 03-04 also are possibilities as far as the ENSO state similarity next winter. I think if its a La Nina or neutral we'll obviously see little STJ activity again being a 3rd year La Nina but we'll have a much greater chance of having blocking and a -NAO next year I think.

[H2Otown_WX]

2 straight runs of the weenie storm:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

It's actually 4 of 5 but who's counting?

[mattinpa]

It's actually 4 of 5 but who's counting?

Yes, who knows if it wil happen, especially in his winter - but fodder for the banter thread.

[H2Otown_WX]

Yes, who knows if it wil happen, especially in his winter - but fodder for the banter thread.

I doubt we get a bonafide coastal without the benefit of a -NAO but maybe there'll be a shot for overrunning with a -EPO/-PNA. Obviously the way this winter's gone areas to our north would be favored at this point.

[Chris L]

Yeah even w/ all the severe blocking, there just wasn't any cold air in Canada. We were dealing with -10c to 0c 850mb air most of the time.

January 2011 was better than February 2010 for cold and snow.

[MJO812]

We had no luck in a good pattern. Maybe we will get luck in a bad pattern.

[Snow_Miser]

We had no luck in a good pattern. Maybe we will get luck in a bad pattern.

This is why I'm voting for you as weenie of the year next year.

[NorEaster27]

Had a great weekend in the adriondacks, 2nd weekened in a row that we had some snow. Was nice to see it coming down.

[NEG NAO]

I admit I laughed when you went for a snowless or less than one inch February in Central Park...but you may have the last laugh...

THe 'Upton" rule is working well this month - but seriously I have seen several of these types of winters around here over the last 57 years - 1972-1973 and 2001 -2002 are the 2 most memorable - when everything goes wrong if you are snow lover and this year is one of those........

[NEG NAO]

the Feb 29 - March 1 coastal snowstorm is showing up again on the 18z - if it is still there after the 12z runs tomorrow I am going to start a thread and maybe we can have the same fun we had with the last one

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12240.gif

[blizzardof09]

We probably won't see an El Nino, probably a very weak La Nina or even neutral like 89-90 or 00-01. 96-97, 95-96, and 01-02 and 03-04 also are possibilities as far as the ENSO state similarity next winter. I think if its a La Nina or neutral we'll obviously see little STJ activity again being a 3rd year La Nina but we'll have a much greater chance of having blocking and a -NAO next year I think.

anything but this snowgoose. this was probably worse than 2000-2001 and barring a nice snowstorm the rest of this year its gonna rank as one our least snowiest in history. 95-96 analog i would take in a heartbeat but with the 2000-01 analog in there too ughhhh. atleast warm weather is just around the corner unless the NAO tanks just as the warm season gets here, that would be fitting for this winter/post winter as mother nature giving us the finger

[blizzardof09]

the Feb 29 - March 1 coastal snowstorm is showing up again on the 18z - if it is still there after the 12z runs tomorrow I am going to start a thread and maybe we can have the same fun we had with the last one

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12240.gif

looks like the same setup.......we all know what happen to that lol. its worth watching but i am not getting my hopes up till inside 48 hours

[Stormlover74]

I think you mean 01-02...I'll gladly take 00-01

anything but this snowgoose. this was probably worse than 2000-2001 and barring a nice snowstorm the rest of this year its gonna rank as one our least snowiest in history. 95-96 analog i would take in a heartbeat but with the 2000-01 analog in there too ughhhh. atleast warm weather is just around the corner unless the NAO tanks just as the warm season gets here, that would be fitting for this winter/post winter as mother nature giving us the finger

[thunderbolt]

We probably won't see an El Nino, probably a very weak La Nina or even neutral like 89-90 or 00-01. 96-97, 95-96, and 01-02 and 03-04 also are possibilities as far as the ENSO state similarity next winter. I think if its a La Nina or neutral we'll obviously see little STJ activity again being a 3rd year La Nina but we'll have a much greater chance of having blocking and a -NAO next year I think.

I think its going to be more of a weak El Nino to neutral, something similar to '02-03

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/nino_fcst/indices/indexninofcst.html

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/inspect/seasonal/products/forecasts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201202!/

one can only hope!

chris

[blizzardof09]

I think you mean 01-02...I'll gladly take 00-01

mannn i have not been on my A-GAME at all lately lol, id take 00-01 as well

[blizzardof09]

I think its going to be more of a weak El Nino to neutral, something similar to '02-03

http://ds.data.jma.g...exninofcst.html

http://www.ecmwf.int...plumes!201202!/

one can only hope!

chris

where so i sign for that? after this winter if mother nature could take a payment plan id gladly pay haha

[Isotherm]

It's amazing how much I miss snow after experiencing this winter. 2009-10/2010-11 winters seem like ages away. Just when snow was beginning to get routine, mother nature pulls the rug and starves the snow geese.

[Analog96]

mannn i have not been on my A-GAME at all lately lol, id take 00-01 as well

Imagine IF we had gotten the Mar 5, 2001 storm as progged. That winter would have been up there with the greats.

[Stormlover74]

True..but 12/30/00 was oh so close to a miss. So I'm just happy we got what we did...and for areas s&w of philly they had two big busts that winter

Imagine IF we had gotten the Mar 5, 2001 storm as progged. That winter would have been up there with the greats.

[NYCSuburbs]

I know this animation is a bit long, although I put the GFS runs since the 18z 2/14 run into a single animation showing how the GFS forecast precipitation for the storm changed as it got closer to the storm. The GFS' performance for this storm wasn't too bad compared to its average, as it began to get a better handle on the storm within the 72 hour range, although there was the noticeable shift around 42 hours that removed Washington DC from the moderate snowstorm potential. With the 500mb set up, the southern shortwave wasn't handled too well, but the GFS had the biggest issues with the northern stream, which trended significantly faster within the 42 hour range.

The storm was generally expected to remain suppressed most of the time, but those 3 GFS runs around the start of the loop briefly introduced the possibility that there would be more phasing before the northern stream and the southern storm trended towards different directions. While I don't think it's a good idea to completely ignore the GFS within its medium and short range as it still has some general idea of the possible outcome, this storm was a good example of why the GFS' medium range solutions should be taken with a lot of caution.