NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 maybe mikehobbyist would want to start another thread 10 days out for this since we had so much fun with his imaginary KU event http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow264.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Long range on the GFS is cold. I want spring to come. Weenie storm Yep, a period of cold has been modeled for a few runs now. I suppose we could get something then, but I'm not expecting anything this winter. Still want to see something major before we end winter - but can't complain too much if we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's actually been showing a threat around the 1st for the past couple days, on an off. Either way it looks like a potential cold shot and maybe a storm. Still 10 days away so I'm not remotely buying it yet Goes to show how awful this winter is. But at least we have a GFS fantisy storm at 264. Probibly only the second or third fantisy storm seen this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's actually been showing a threat around the 1st for the past couple days, on an off. Either way it looks like a potential cold shot and maybe a storm. Still 10 days away so I'm not remotely buying it yet Chances are it will eventually be a day or two of normal or slightly below normal temps followed by a return to the torch. Looks like temps this week could get into the low 60s NYC and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Chances are it will eventually be a day or two of normal or slightly below normal temps followed by a return to the torch. Looks like temps this week could get into the low 60s NYC and points south. If that happens the all time February avg high temp record is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If that happens the all time February avg high temp record is a lock We've had ONE neg departure day and only 3 days with a high temp below 40F. Two days with a low below 30F and only 7 days with a low 32 or lower. Just. Unreal. It's not like it's been super warm, we have just been in the 40s/50s with a few days in the 60s for like 3 straight months now. I've never seen anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 maybe mikehobbyist would want to start another thread 10 days out for this since we had so much fun with his imaginary KU event http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow264.gif Can you turn the douche dial down a notch or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Can you turn the douche dial down a notch or two? you a friend of Mikey ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Long range on the GFS is cold. I want spring to come. Huh? Who has taken over your computer? I thought you were the guy who wanted year round winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Huh? Who has taken over your computer? I thought you were the guy who wanted year round winter? Yes but not a winter like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yes but not a winter like this one. now that you said that we better make sure not to put the snow plows away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 now that you said that we better make sure not to put the snow plows away.... I admit I laughed when you went for a snowless or less than one inch February in Central Park...but you may have the last laugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We've had ONE neg departure day and only 3 days with a high temp below 40F. Two days with a low below 30F and only 7 days with a low 32 or lower. Just. Unreal. It's not like it's been super warm, we have just been in the 40s/50s with a few days in the 60s for like 3 straight months now. I've never seen anything like this. It really has been incredible -- the longest stretch of 40/50 degree high temperatures I can remember. Given we'll probably see the 40s/50s for another couple months, that's 6-7 months of the same weather. Just think - folks on the West coast deal with this all the time. The past 7 months have confirmed to me even more that I'd go crazy living in the West - the weather's too mundane and routine. Another thing about this winter is the very warm nights. I don't recall so many nights with temps barely slipping below freezing. It's like we progressed to mid November, then hit a brick wall in terms of the decline into winter. I can count on my one hand the number of times I've worn my arctic/ski jacket, ie., the full ensemble, hat, gloves, boots etc. The times I've worn shorts and a t shirt is about 10X that. At least on the bright side, we're at a latitude where even our warmest winter on record is still chilly and a break from the warm months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It really has been incredible -- the longest stretch of 40/50 degree high temperatures I can remember. Given we'll probably see the 40s/50s for another couple months, that's 6-7 months of the same weather. Just think - folks on the West coast deal with this all the time. The past 7 months have confirmed to me even more that I'd go crazy living in the West - the weather's too mundane and routine. Another thing about this winter is the very warm nights. I don't recall so many nights with temps barely slipping below freezing. It's like we progressed to mid November, then hit a brick wall in terms of the decline into winter. I can count on my one hand the number of times I've worn my arctic/ski jacket, ie., the full ensemble, hat, gloves, boots etc. The times I've worn shorts and a t shirt is about 10X that. At least on the bright side, we're at a latitude where even our warmest winter on record is still chilly and a break from the warm months. Even in the Monadnocks of Southern NH at over 1000', it's been in the 40s most days. Temperatures seem to be climbing much faster than expected given 850s due to the lack of snow cover in the area as well as to the NW over the Great Lakes and Plains. The past few days, we've had 850s slightly below 0C but still made it into the 40-45F range...the stronger sun angle is also starting to have a great impact on a barren landscape as well. We haven't had many chilly nights in the teens at all, just a continual blowtorch and very very dry. I was rereading the threads on Boxing Day, the December 2010 cold outbreak, looking at photos of 1/27 in Dobbs Ferry...sad times these are. Starting to think the winter is nearly over given the -PNA pattern showing up with limited blocking in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I wonder if DC's cherry blossoms are starting to bud. The earliest I see on their list is February 13th for 1998. The latest date (since 1992) is 2003, on March 17th, which makes sense given that was a cold, blockbuster late winter. http://www.nationalcherryblossomfestival.org/about/bloom-watch/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Even in the Monadnocks of Southern NH at over 1000', it's been in the 40s most days. Temperatures seem to be climbing much faster than expected given 850s due to the lack of snow cover in the area as well as to the NW over the Great Lakes and Plains. The past few days, we've had 850s slightly below 0C but still made it into the 40-45F range...the stronger sun angle is also starting to have a great impact on a barren landscape as well. We haven't had many chilly nights in the teens at all, just a continual blowtorch and very very dry. I was rereading the threads on Boxing Day, the December 2010 cold outbreak, looking at photos of 1/27 in Dobbs Ferry...sad times these are. Starting to think the winter is nearly over given the -PNA pattern showing up with limited blocking in the long range. Yeah it's been a complete and utter disaster of a winter for most of the North American continent. What's the least snow on record for your area - I'm sure this year's up there. Usually in many of our crappy winters, central and northern New England still get buried. Not the case this year - even the Lake effect zones have been cheated due to the lack of strong lows pulling down arctic air behind them. It's been a benign, zonal regime with a spattering of weak short waves - nothing real energetic or powerful. Polar opposite to the intense nor'easters of the previous 2 winters. With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a bookend type monster in mid/late March or April. I say mid march or later b/c the pattern continues to look like garbage in the coming 3 weeks with no high latitude blocking and a north pacific favoring the Western US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I wonder if DC's cherry blossoms are starting to bud. The earliest I see on their list is February 13th for 1998. The latest date (since 1992) is 2003, on March 17th, which makes sense given that was a cold, blockbuster late winter. http://www.nationalc...ut/bloom-watch/ I heard they started budding a couple weeks ago at least. Not surprising as almost all the trees around here are budding as well. Assuming no major arctic outbreaks going forward (let's say sustained temps below 25F), I imagine the beginnings of the leaf-out can't be too far away. Sometime in mid March at this point. In the city we didn't go totally bare until after Christmas, so that's just 2.5 months of bare trees. Those are deep south type stats there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah it's been a complete and utter disaster of a winter for most of the North American continent. What's the least snow on record for your area - I'm sure this year's up there. Usually in many of our crappy winters, central and northern New England still get buried. Not the case this year - even the Lake effect zones have been cheated due to the lack of strong lows pulling down arctic air behind them. It's been a benign, zonal regime with a spattering of weak short waves - nothing real energetic or powerful. Polar opposite to the intense nor'easters of the previous 2 winters. With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a bookend type monster in mid/late March or April. I say mid march or later b/c the pattern continues to look like garbage in the coming 3 weeks with no high latitude blocking and a north pacific favoring the Western US. Some of the places up there have had essentially NO precip this month. KORH is at like 0.23" so far. Just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I heard they started budding a couple weeks ago at least. Not surprising as almost all the trees around here are budding as well. Assuming no major arctic outbreaks going forward (let's say sustained temps below 25F), I imagine the beginnings of the leaf-out can't be too far away. Sometime in mid March at this point. In the city we didn't go totally bare until after Christmas, so that's just 2.5 months of bare trees. Those are deep south type stats there. Yeah I know. I for one enjoy our usual 6 months of bare landscape/trees and find the late leaf-drops/early leaf out to be depressing (of course contrary to the majority of the population). If we have this pattern fast-forward a month from now, we'll be looking at day after day of 60-65F. I thought March 2010 would be the earliest leaf out I ever saw; hopefully I'm not proven wrong this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah I know. I for one enjoy our usual 6 months of bare landscape/trees and find the late leaf-drops/early leaf out to be depressing (of course contrary to the majority of the population). If we have this pattern fast-forward a month from now, we'll be looking at day after day of 60-65F. I thought March 2010 would be the earliest leaf out I ever saw; hopefully I'm not proven wrong this spring. The March 2010 leaf out was just crazy though (I was in Philly at the time) because we went from basically a polar landscape with 20-30" of snow on the ground through late Feb to absolute unmitigated blowtorch in March. The transition and the speed with which the trees etc responded were incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Since there's no snow coming up, at least the late week looks interesting in terms of warmth... Wednesday and/or Thursday look like solid mid-upper 50s with the storm track to the north, and Friday could be even warmer depending on the storm track... the 0z ECM and the CMC showed 60+ degrees on Friday and even the typically colder GFS is close to 60 degrees. As long as there's no significant changes, IMO we could reach 60 degrees at least once by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Just looked at the stats for Feb and March 2010 for KPHL, crazy is the only way to describe it. Avg Feb temp was 32F. Avg March temp was 49F. Quite the jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Since there's no snow coming up, at least the late week looks interesting in terms of warmth... Wednesday and/or Thursday look like solid mid-upper 50s with the storm track to the north, and Friday could be even warmer depending on the storm track... the 0z ECM and the CMC showed 60+ degrees on Friday and even the typically colder GFS is close to 60 degrees. As long as there's no significant changes, IMO we could reach 60 degrees at least once by the end of the week. Who cares; we've been 50-60 countless times this winter - tracking the "first 60" is no fun this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Just looked at the stats for Feb and March 2010 for KPHL, crazy is the only way to describe it. Avg Feb temp was 32F. Avg March temp was 49F. Quite the jump. feb 2010 was mild... we had no arctic air whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Who cares; we've been 50-60 countless times this winter - tracking the "first 60" is no fun this winter. That's true, although half a month passed since the last very warm day and we're slowly getting closer to spring where 60+ degrees become more frequent. By now I'm just hoping it'll finally be spring already, at this rate it's worth waiting for next winter rather than counting on what is left of this winter to actually produce a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 feb 2010 was mild... we had no arctic air whatsoever Yeah even w/ all the severe blocking, there just wasn't any cold air in Canada. We were dealing with -10c to 0c 850mb air most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 feb 2010 was mild... we had no arctic air whatsoever There wasn't much arctic air but it certainly wasn't mild. NYC was -2 on the month and PHL was -4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah even w/ all the severe blocking, there just wasn't any cold air in Canada. We were dealing with -10c to 0c 850mb air most of the time. Just goes to show that in Dec-Feb, we don't really need that type of cold air. We just need actual events that produce precip. Hasn't been happening this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The lack of deep, fresh snow cover across many areas also contributed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 There wasn't much arctic air but it certainly wasn't mild. NYC was -2 on the month and PHL was -4. ewr was -.6 and nyc was -1.5, with the lowest temps for the month being 16 at ewr and 17 at nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.