Momza Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 lol.. interesting stat... we should do one for the percentage of time snow was falling from the sky this winter... If I had to take a guestimate, it would be about .000001% A classic "watched pot" winter that never boiled". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i hope severe weather season is good this year. I wouldn't mind seeing a tornado. That was one of the reasons why I bought a flip camcorder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let's be honest here John - other than the occasional T-storms (which are awesome) spring and summer are generally pretty damn boring as far as interesting weather events. Winter can give you anything from blizzards, icestorms, sleetstorms, raging nor'easters ala Dec 92, big wind events, thundersnow, and extreme temp drops. Spring/summer -- backdoor cold fronts, sea breezes, heat waves, and T-storms. The first two aren't interesting, so that leaves only two weather events that are fascinating; I guess you can throw flooding in there, but that can happen in winter too. And there is nothing better tracking a HECS dropping 25-30" of snow... a la Boxing Day or JAN 1996, PD II, etc. Thundersnow is so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i hope severe weather season is good this year. I wouldn't mind seeing a tornado. That was one of the reasons why I bought a flip camcorder.... Just no more flooding, please. Tired of pumping out peoples basements lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So for snow since Dec 1, we have had approx 22.5 hours of reported snow falling in Central Park. That comes out to 1.2% of the entire meteorological winter, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just no more flooding, please. Tired of pumping out peoples basements lol. Amen brother. Also sick of making swift water rescues and practically becoming a victim myself lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So for snow since Dec 1, we have had approx 22.5 hours of reported snow falling in Central Park. That comes out to 1.2% of the entire meteorological winter, so far. At an average of about 1/3" of snow per hour, since there's about 7.5" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 At an average of about 1/3" of snow per hour, since there's about 7.5" for the season. Ugh. Thats the final tally on the season. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Final stat from my boring day at work: Since Dec 1 we have had approx 289.75 hours spent at 50F or higher, which comes out to 15.3% of the entire winter so far (DJF). Above 50 degrees. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 LOL at the 12Z canadian for next fri... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Okay, I know this is a banter thread... but, it's still a wx-side forum that's guest-viewable. I split off the posts about Yanksfan's honey to here: And, psst, Yanksfan... she's not bad, but she looks 14. Criminy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Things we can learn from...euro is the best for east coast storms....gfs is crap...ukmet and ggem are pointless to look out.....nam should only be used for temps in the summer....no reason to extrapolate it outside 84.... not bitter...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS has the GGEM coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Things we can learn from...euro is the best for east coast storms....gfs is crap...ukmet and ggem are pointless to look out.....nam should only be used for temps in the summer....no reason to extrapolate it outside 84.... not bitter...just saying Maybe they should just get rid of every model except the euro. No point really to ever look at anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Maybe they should just get rid of every model except the euro. No point really to ever look at anything else. Other then the boxing day miracle....the american models have been a huge disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LOL at the 12Z canadian for next fri... Add the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Add the GFS. Oh no - here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Oh no - here we go again. It's always a week away. In winter like this in which it just doesn't want to snow, it's best to assume that every medium/long range threat on the models won't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS might as well read the Day After Tomorrow, it is just about as accurate. NYC had a decent snow event during that movie and the only model that predicted that event was the ECMWF. The GFS said heavy rain and in the 50's. Now to reality that one run of the GFS earlier the week put every one in a tissy for nothing. And last night's NAM pushed it back north only to take it back south, Lets not mention last weekend debacle; this winter's model runs are making us meteologists look like idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Oh no - here we go again. Oh no we don't. Not me anyway. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 10 times, ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yes, no, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yes, no, maybe? Probably not, the pattern is still too progressive and while there is the possibility of a 50/50 setup being present over SE Canada and a ridge out west the timing again would have to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yes, no, maybe? Possible, but in this winter, definitely have to show me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I love how everyone seems so quick to dismiss the next threat, possibly a result of still being bitter about this past storm. The reality is, and I argued all along, this setup was not favorable. There was nothing realistically supportive of snow for our area. The signal at H5 was clear that the storm would be shunted east, by as early as Wednesday evening. The reality is, if you take what some of the models have shown for next weekend verbatim, well that setup is more conducive for snow in our area. Similar to this weekend there is a block (even if transient), but more importantly the positioning is much more favorable. The biggest factor is the strong ridge out west. This allows the trough to amplify as the northern stream energy is forced to dive down into the base of the trough and phase with the southern stream. The ridge prevents the northern stream from either racing east or keeping the flow oriented w-e and progressive. Cold air is also available and able to drain south. That being said, such a setup is not the nicest I have ever seen and it doesn't scream snowstorm, but it sure as hell is much more favorable then the current setup. I just simply wanted to point out these details to those being so pessimistic and dismissive, especially since many of them were the same people I saw being positive about this past setup when it was about as horrid as it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I love how everyone seems so quick to dismiss the next threat, possibly a result of still being bitter about this past storm. The reality is, and I argued all along, this setup was not favorable. There was nothing realistically supportive of snow for our area. The signal at H5 was clear that the storm would be shunted east, by as early as Wednesday evening. The reality is, if you take what some of the models have shown for next weekend verbatim, well that setup is more conducive for snow in our area. Similar to this weekend there is a block (even if transient), but more importantly the positioning is much more favorable. The biggest factor is the strong ridge out west. This allows the trough to amplify as the northern stream energy is forced to dive down into the base of the trough and phase with the southern stream. The ridge prevents the northern stream from either racing east or keeping the flow oriented w-e and progressive. Cold air is also available and able to drain south. That being said, such a setup is not the nicest I have ever seen and it doesn't scream snowstorm, but it sure as hell is much more favorable then the current setup. I just simply wanted to point out these details to those being so pessimistic and dismissive, especially since many of them were the same people I saw being positive about this past setup when it was about as horrid as it can get. It's a moderate Nina. There's either blocking, upon which we have a shot, or just an absurd confluent pattern with a +NAO, upon which we have no shot, or no block/no confluence, upon which any real storm will cut to the lakes. Just the facts of reality in this pattern. We need a real Greenland/Baffin Bay block before we can really bank on a snow threat. Anything less than that's already an almost guaranteed fail. Winter patterns tend to repeat themselves, without major changes in the overall pattern. That map shows a general repeat of the overall pattern, so it's almost certainly a fail. When it's still showing this 72 hours out maybe, it'll be time to listen. And yeah, I'm bitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 well, what does teh Euro show?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 euro same general look as the gfs, just less amplified. I guess its worth watching, still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 well, what does teh Euro show?? if you live in northern virginia, you still live too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's a moderate Nina. There's either blocking, upon which we have a shot, or just an absurd confluent pattern with a +NAO, upon which we have no shot, or no block/no confluence, upon which any real storm will cut to the lakes. Just the facts of reality in this pattern. We need a real Greenland/Baffin Bay block before we can really bank on a snow threat. Anything less than that's already an almost guaranteed fail. Winter patterns tend to repeat themselves, without major changes in the overall pattern. That map shows a general repeat of the overall pattern, so it's almost certainly a fail. When it's still showing this 72 hours out maybe, it'll be time to listen. And yeah, I'm bitter. That map shows a similar setup to this event, except a few key differences that this time around could have been game changers. Just checked the euro, although it didn't produce a storm because the phase didn't come in time and energy goes OTS, its depiction at 156 is very favorable. Unlike this time it has a strong ridge out west, which in my opinion could have made all the difference with this storm. This winter has been unfavorable, but if you can recognize setups that are different, then you can find the potential. If the features modeled on both the 0z gfs and 0z euro are true and do occur, then I would say there is definitely potential next weekend. I think if the models stick to this idea, then by Tuesday I will be getting louder. 0z euro at 156 is nice, strong ridge out west, energy diving down into the trough with a ton of southern stream moisture available and the hgts starting to rise on the east coast. Also has a nice block. Anyways I am getting ahead of myself, my only intention was to point out that if people could somehow have been excited about this past setup, then it is foolish to already be dismissing next week. I don't want peoples frustration to cloud their forecast. Although I think peoples excitement this past storm was sparked by a few model runs, but we must keep in mind regardless of what a model shows, does the pattern at H5 support such a solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 if you live in northern virginia, you still live too far north. we have been out of the game for a while but i really thought DC would get a solid 5"+ storm..I guess they could still get it but the euro has the cutoff just south of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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