Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yea, I was in VA (Shenandoah Valley) that winter. We still got snow (to be fair we average more than the park) but it wasn't that cold. I believe that was the year we got into the low 80s in January. Now THAT was insane. Jesus-we had 70's here in Early December that year--and Feb and March were complete blowtorches--we had the one week of winter in Jan just like this year with a moderate storm...the similarities in sensible weather b/w this year and that year is uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 For some reason these days leading up to this sunday event is reminding me of the 12/19/2009 storm - if anyone remembers that was a saturday and the models were showing a miss to our south up till Thursdays 12Z runs then all of a sudden the models shifted north into our neck of the woods and stayed north - that saturday 12/19 though the precip shield moved VERY slowly up the coast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The sheer lack of cold air on our side of the globe is just astounding. You have to go all the way to the freaking Nunavut territory north of the Arctic Circle to get sub-zero temps. That is basically the only area in North America with such temps (not the Northwest nor Yukon territories, nor northern AK). Current temp in Barrow is 4F. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jesus-we had 70's here in Early December that year--and Feb and March were complete blowtorches--we had the one week of winter in Jan just like this year with a moderate storm...the similarities in sensible weather b/w this year and that year is uncanny. Yea once you get back into the mountains the temp fluctuations can get a bit crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The sheer lack of cold air on our side of the globe is just astounding. You have to go all the way to the freaking Nunavut territory north of the Arctic Circle to get sub-zero temps. That is basically the only area in North America with such temps (not the Northwest nor Yukon territories, nor northern AK). Current temp in Barrow is 4F. Unreal. that should tell us where we go from here-even if we get a favorable pattern, it's not going to be that cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I found the cold air: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's check the ECMWF control model at 180-200 hours out - I'm sure it shows an east coast bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's check the ECMWF control model at 180-200 hours out - I'm sure it shows an east coast bomb And cold air! How many of those solutions have busted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You want to see negativity go to the philly forum...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You want to see negativity go to the philly forum...........lol Same thing that always happens - it certainly has that pre storm atmosphere with mood swings every 6 hours, depending upon what the latest models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I knew this storm wasn't gonna happen. Spring is right around the corner now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I knew this storm wasn't gonna happen. Spring is right around the corner now You're a disgusting person. Spring never left. 50 degrees the next two days, back to short sleeve shirt tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You want to see negativity go to the philly forum...........lol its worse there-they are so close to something...for us, it's not even close anymore-it's 100-150 mile miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 its worse there-they are so close to something...for us, it's not even close anymore-it's 100-150 mile miss You haven't followed weather that long if you seriously think 100-150 miles isn't close, espcially at D 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You haven't followed weather that long if you seriously think 100-150 miles isn't close, espcially at D 3. not when every model is trending south...if they were trending north, then we might be on the cusp of something. they are not and outside of a run or two of the GFS NYC was never in the game for much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 not when every model is trending south...if they were trending north, then we might be on the cusp of something. they are not and outside of a run or two of the GFS NYC was never in the game for much.... Models don't trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Models don't trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 They don't. Saying they trend is weenieish. Models compute current data. They don't trend based on a previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 21z sref say quit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 21z sref say quit Don't they go off of 18z NAM data? Anyway, the SREFs don't bother me as much as if we see no improvement on any model tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If we want to see snow out of this I would want to see a huge change in everything on the models either tonight or at the 12z runs tom. Baby steps is only going to ensure a nailing for the mid Atlantic and scrape us with some cirrus. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Why are we in storm mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Why are we in storm mode? Because there's a storm brewing and models will shift north starting tonight, book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Because there's a storm brewing and models will shift north starting tonight, book it. give it up dude this is fall 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I honestly can't believe that I'm staying up to see the 00z ECMWF. Hopefully it's worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Bill Evans says snowstorm schmostorm swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think a little south version of this storm is a fair comparison. Anyone have the upper air maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This was the 18z GEFS from Wednesday. What a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 At least it made the week go by faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Remember when the 18z GFS on Wednesday showed a big inland runner? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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