ace0927 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Stand up comedians are usually pretty jaded and sarcastic, he's way too positive. Motivational speaker maybe, politician? yes, very good point. "How to turn any model run into a MECS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That is a very potent southern stream feature being advertised on the Euro. The northern stream is very active to the north over Southeast Canada which is ultimately keeping the precipitation shunted to the south, despite allowing for a good cold air supply and antecedent airmass in place. 1000-500 hPa thicknesses are less than 528dm at 00z Sunday as the storm is organizing off the Southeast US Coast. The surcface low tracks from the Western FL Panhandle along the GA/SC coast to OBX. A classic Mid Atlantic snow track as it is. Northern stream starts getting involved at 18z Saturday over the Central Plains. Usually a very good sign. But the lack of amplitude out west is worrisome. There is a strong system advertised to crash into the Pac NW which rolls the ridge axis eastward and allows the system to subsequently escape south and east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Time to get Recon out there in the Pacific to help the models with the handling of any shortwaves out there. Plan of the Day -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 000 NOUS42 KNHC 131800 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0100 PM EST MON 13 FEBRUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-075 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/0000Z B. AFXXX 18WSC TRACK 56 C. 14/1845Z D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 15/0600Z FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49 A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/1200Z B. NOAA9 19WSC TRACK56 C. 15/0730Z D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 15/1800Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/0000Z B. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/1200Z JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That is a very potent southern stream feature being advertised on the Euro. The northern stream is very active to the north over Southeast Canada which is ultimately keeping the precipitation shunted to the south, despite allowing for a good cold air supply and antecedent airmass in place. 1000-500 hPa thicknesses are less than 528dm at 00z Sunday as the storm is organizing off the Southeast US Coast. The surcface low tracks from the Western FL Panhandle along the GA/SC coast to OBX. A classic Mid Atlantic snow track as it is. Northern stream starts getting involved at 18z Saturday over the Central Plains. Usually a very good sign. But the lack of amplitude out west is worrisome. There is a strong system advertised to crash into the Pac NW which rolls the ridge axis eastward and allows the system to subsequently escape south and east as well. Yup DT just mentioned this too. That may prevent this thing from coming further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yup DT just mentioned this too. That may prevent this thing from coming further north. The lead time for our potential event allows for great differences to appear between now and then. I wouldn't be too worried about a system crashing on the west coast just yet, as that system would be coming ashore at the END of said lead time, meaning it will not be properly sampled for a very long time. This may look totally different when game time approaches, however that doesn't mean the changes will be positive. Right now it's just one more potential system to keep an eye on in what has otherwise been a very benign stretch of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The lead time for our potential event allows for great differences to appear between now and then. I wouldn't be too worried about a system crashing on the west coast just yet, as that system would be coming ashore at the END of said lead time, meaning it will not be properly sampled for a very long time. This may look totally different when game time approaches, however that doesn't mean the changes will be positive. Right now it's just one more potential system to keep an eye on in what has otherwise been a very benign stretch of weather. wouldnt it be prudent to wait until inside the 72 hour mark for any kind of forecast as to what this storms gonna do? not just because of the models performance this year but better sampling of the pacific wave that will impact the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Stand up comedians are usually pretty jaded and sarcastic, he's way too positive. Motivational speaker maybe, politician? True, except for maybe Bill Murray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I could see this being a classic southern mid-atlantic significant snow storm in the middle of an atrocious east coast winter. See January 3-4, 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I could see this being a classic southern mid-atlantic significant snow storm in the middle of an atrocious east coast winter. See January 3-4, 2002. That would be the most awesome kicker in the teeth-more snow for the winter in Raleigh than NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 everyone record your hours model watching starting today so we can see who wastes the most time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 everyone record your hours model watching starting today so we can see who wastes the most time lmaoooo....statement of the year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Storm on Thursday trended a lot colder on the 18z Nam: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Still a washout for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Has the op GFS once showed us a major snow storm this winter inside of 7 days? I dont remember it doing so. Hopefully it will throw us a bone with the weekend system. It seems like the Euro this year has shown us a few fantasy storms between 7 and 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 For those that say winter is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 everyone record your hours model watching starting today so we can see who wastes the most time Starting today? I would flag hours starting last October 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z GFS WAY different..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Gfs shows non-event. It would be the ultimate screwball giving those down south a few inches of snow or more and us zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It is not over until the fat lady sings: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think we have to give it a couple days before getting too down about the threat. How many times have things trended north in the last few days? Of course we have a progressive flow now, so chances aren't AS great it will come north. We'll just have to keep tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think we have to give it a couple days before getting too down about the threat. How many times have things trended north in the last few days? Of course we have a progressive flow now, so chances aren't AS great it will come north. We'll just have to keep tracking. Agree, but there are alot of players that need to come into place-seems like we need 4 things to change vs just one and I'd put the odds of this working out pretty low unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Everyone breath its 6 days out ,10 Euro and 40 GFS runs aways from CONVERGENCE . The signal is still there . PATIENCE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Why is he wrong? The truth hurts sometimes Wow. How you aren't 5 posted after comments such as this is beyond me. You and a few others have hijacked this board and in the process pushed some good posters away. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This "winter" has definitely humbled some of the best. All indicators pointed to a cold/snowy/stormy 2nd half of winter. Pattern is good, but no cold air on our side of the globe and nothing has broken our way...nothing. (Except maybe the 1/21 storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Why is he wrong? The truth hurts sometimes Did i say he is wrong? There is nothing wrong with saying a model has changed, runs have been inconsistent, but taking personal shots at posters and mets is not professional and not called for. Its the difference between. 1. The mets lost, what a shame. or 2. The mets lost, everyone who thought they would win looks like a fool, how can anybody possibly think they would win with such a ****ty team, what is wrong with you guys! I am so much better at predicting who wins than the professional sportscasters and analysts. Its ok to be honest about a storm's chances, but to insult everyone who was slightly optimistic is uncalled for and ridiculous. Don't post on a board where nobody likes you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You live in CT, where it actually snowed enough to completely cover most grass. For the January storm? I had 3.5" of snow that covered everything, including main streets. And I live in an urban part of Queens, Astoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 For the January storm? I had 3.5" of snow that covered everything, including main streets. And I live in an urban part of Queens, Astoria. Yes but you live on the north shore...long beach got screwed from the warm air on that one...i even got an inch less than you 15 miles due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You live in CT, where it actually snowed enough to completely cover most grass. JM lives in a *special" part of Long island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yes but you live on the north shore...long beach got screwed from the warm air on that one...i even got an inch less than you 15 miles due east AlGreek lives in NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 AlGreek lives in NYC... Astoria is on Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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