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February Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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Have to say this weekend has been pretty fun, all things considered. Finally feels like winter, absolutely beautiful out there right now - wind howling, wind chills in the 10s, flurries flying, snow on the ground after 3.5" since Friday night (and heavy snow last night). It'll all be gone by mid week, but as the old saying goes, better to have experienced for a short time than not at all.

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Have to say this weekend has been pretty fun, all things considered. Finally feels like winter, absolutely beautiful out there right now - wind howling, wind chills in the 10s, flurries flying, snow on the ground after 3.5" since Friday night (and heavy snow last night). It'll all be gone by mid week, but as the old saying goes, better to have experienced for a short time than not at all.

And we still got time to add more this week. There is some probability of more accumulating snow between now and next Sunday.

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As expected, today broke our streak of 20 days of positive departures. This has got to be close to a record for the DJF meteorological winter period.

1/23: 53/34 +11

1/24: 53/42 +15

1/25: 44/36 +7.5

1/26: 40/33 +3.5

1/27: 59/40 +16.5

1/28: 45/38 +8.5

1/29: 43/33 +5

1/30: 41/34 +4.5

1/31: 57/38 +14.5

2/1: 62/48 +22

2/2: 50/35 +9.5

2/3: 44/30 +4

2/4: 46/35 +6.5

2/5: 40/32 +2

2/6: 51/33 +8

2/7: 49/38 +9.5

2/8: 38/31 +0.5

2/9: 46/31 +4.5

2/10: 45/34 +5

2/11: 38/32 +0.5

Today at 2am was also the first time in 491 hours (or ~20.5 days, or nearly 3 weeks) that the temperature dipped below 30F (last time was 3pm on Sunday, Jan 22).

Keep in mind, during this streak, the PNA was positive for 17 of these days (1/26-2/11). The AO was negative for the ENTIRE period. I know we didn't have much in the way of blocking, but even with other teleconnections lined up, we for the most part torched.

With this current "arctic blast", the high still hit freezing (we haven't had a sub-freezing max since Jan 21) and our departure from normal is probably going to be -8. Hardly that cold, but still quite a break from the past 20 days. However, if this isn't the writing on the wall that this really will be the winter that wasn't, then I don't know what is.

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As expected, today broke our streak of 20 days of positive departures. This has got to be close to a record for the DJF meteorological winter period.

1/23: 53/34 +11

1/24: 53/42 +15

1/25: 44/36 +7.5

1/26: 40/33 +3.5

1/27: 59/40 +16.5

1/28: 45/38 +8.5

1/29: 43/33 +5

1/30: 41/34 +4.5

1/31: 57/38 +14.5

2/1: 62/48 +22

2/2: 50/35 +9.5

2/3: 44/30 +4

2/4: 46/35 +6.5

2/5: 40/32 +2

2/6: 51/33 +8

2/7: 49/38 +9.5

2/8: 38/31 +0.5

2/9: 46/31 +4.5

2/10: 45/34 +5

2/11: 38/32 +0.5

Today at 2am was also the first time in 491 hours (or ~20.5 days, or nearly 3 weeks) that the temperature dipped below 30F (last time was 3pm on Sunday, Jan 22).

Keep in mind, during this streak, the PNA was positive for 17 of these days (1/26-2/11). The AO was negative for the ENTIRE period. I know we didn't have much in the way of blocking, but even with other teleconnections lined up, we for the most part torched.

With this current "arctic blast", the high still hit freezing (we haven't had a sub-freezing max since Jan 21) and our departure from normal is probably going to be -8. Hardly that cold, but still quite a break from the past 20 days. However, if this isn't the writing on the wall that this really will be the winter that wasn't, then I don't know what is.

Wow. Those stats really are a testament to how much of a non-winter we are experiencing. Right at the time of year when climo says temps should be at their lowest too.

Still waiting for Autumn to end.......

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As expected, today broke our streak of 20 days of positive departures. This has got to be close to a record for the DJF meteorological winter period.

1/23: 53/34 +11

1/24: 53/42 +15

1/25: 44/36 +7.5

1/26: 40/33 +3.5

1/27: 59/40 +16.5

1/28: 45/38 +8.5

1/29: 43/33 +5

1/30: 41/34 +4.5

1/31: 57/38 +14.5

2/1: 62/48 +22

2/2: 50/35 +9.5

2/3: 44/30 +4

2/4: 46/35 +6.5

2/5: 40/32 +2

2/6: 51/33 +8

2/7: 49/38 +9.5

2/8: 38/31 +0.5

2/9: 46/31 +4.5

2/10: 45/34 +5

2/11: 38/32 +0.5

Today at 2am was also the first time in 491 hours (or ~20.5 days, or nearly 3 weeks) that the temperature dipped below 30F (last time was 3pm on Sunday, Jan 22).

Keep in mind, during this streak, the PNA was positive for 17 of these days (1/26-2/11). The AO was negative for the ENTIRE period. I know we didn't have much in the way of blocking, but even with other teleconnections lined up, we for the most part torched.

With this current "arctic blast", the high still hit freezing (we haven't had a sub-freezing max since Jan 21) and our departure from normal is probably going to be -8. Hardly that cold, but still quite a break from the past 20 days. However, if this isn't the writing on the wall that this really will be the winter that wasn't, then I don't know what is.

very good post, goes to show that a +PNA plus a -AO does not automaticaly equal cold, even in the heart of winter.

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very good post, goes to show that a +PNA plus a -AO does not automaticaly equal cold, even in the heart of winter.

As I have indicated before, indices are proxies, not forecasts, otherwise people would just put teleconnection values in a computer and get a forecast. I have also pointed out that the lack of fresh deep snow cover anywhere near us would ameliorate any 'cold shot'.

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Correct, but there is actually a secondary minimum right around Feb 5 after the climatological "January thaw"

This graph is from the blog Gothamist:

http://gothamist.com...or_the_gian.php

Something is warm with that graph because there were eighty degree days in March since 1971.

If the graph of extreme values continues, it would only be a matter of time that Central Park will have an eighty degree day during met. winter.

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Something is warm with that graph because there were eighty degree days in March since 1971.

If the graph of extreme values continues, it would only be a matter of time that Central Park will have an eighty degree day during met. winter.

I think it's a graph of daily mean temps. So some of those towards the end of March are days where the avg temp was 70+ (mega torch).

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Had no access to my computer , Wasn`t avoiding my awful forecast last week

1 BL issue

2 0 in westhampton

3 - 2-3 in NYC

ALL 3 WERE HORRIFIC .

its ok alot of people putting out forecasts this year have been dissapointed lol. what do you think about next weekends storm threat, as far as chances and how powerful it could be?

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its ok alot of people putting out forecasts this year have been dissapointed lol. what do you think about next weekends storm threat, as far as chances and how powerful it could be?

Thanks , I blew up inside 24 hrs - so I`m honestly gun shy again in this pattern . The only thing that came around were the indices , the pattern seems the same ole to me .

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Thanks , I blew up inside 24 hrs - so I`m honestly gun shy again in this pattern . The only thing that came around were the indices , the pattern seems the same ole to me .

so once again for this weekend its a timing situation with the southern/northern stream, though this weekend we do got some confluence in se canada and 50/50 low so i think it has a "better" chance. btw you have been informative with your forecasts and input and ive really come to enjoy your opinions on upcoming storms.

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so once again for this weekend its a timing situation with the southern/northern stream, though this weekend we do got some confluence in se canada and 50/50 low so i think it has a "better" chance. btw you have been informative with your forecasts and input and ive really come to enjoy your opinions on upcoming storms.

Ha man , Thanks . This pattern is a hard one to fight with . I havent seen anything that makes me feel

good yet .

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Nine of the eleven warmest years in Central Park history have occurred in the last 21 years.

Yeah, the number of records for warmth has been very impressive over this time frame.

NYC annual temperatures

I guess the question to ask is how far out into the future would NYC see a decrease in average annual snowfall

if this trend were to continue at a similar rate?

NYC winter temperatures

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