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February Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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Given the PNA setup and the ridging out west, why exactly is there no cold air on our side of the globe. Why are all the cold anomalies completely on the opposite side of the globe?

Normally with this setup, at least some cold air would be around.

A PNA ridge doesn't guarantee cold air when you have a +EPO pattern. February 2006 had a large PNA and yet much of the East averaged above normal temperatures, which you wouldn't necessarily think when you look at the pattern:

post-475-0-84650400-1328149720.png

Temps:

The current pattern features a large -AO but the blocking is on the Asian side of the globe, which favors colder temperatures in the mid-latitudes of Europe and Asia, but not as much here. You can see on this chart of 500mb anomalies that we have a monster vortex over Western AK and the Bering Strait, which is keeping Canada warm with Pacific air intruding...all the real cold is behind that vortex:

post-475-0-03118700-1328149945.gif

On the North Pacific 18z GFS, you can see how much colder the air is behind that vortex and towards Siberia/Japan:

post-475-0-77653500-1328150043.gif

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I had to do a double take earlier today, but I'm pretty sure I saw that yellow flowering plant starting to bud. It's not a forsythia, it's the yellow one that normally buds 2-4 weeks earlier than the forsythia, can't think of the name.

I'm surprised the DC cherries haven't begun to bud yet. Certainly if late feb blowtorches, DC will probably peak blook in early March this year.

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I had to do a double take earlier today, but I'm pretty sure I saw that yellow flowering plant starting to bud. It's not a forsythia, it's the yellow one that normally buds 2-4 weeks earlier than the forsythia, can't think of the name.

I'm surprised the DC cherries haven't begun to bud yet. Certainly if late feb blowtorches, DC will probably peak blook in early March this year.

Witch hazel?

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Witch hazel?

Bingo, that's it. Couldn't believe my eyes; I don't think I've ever seen a flowering plant on February 1st. Maybe we had it in 01-02, but I wasn't really paying attn to it back then.

March 2010 was incredible w/ the streak of 70s. I remember trees leafing out on March 15th. Hopefully we don't see that this year; I'd like some normal seasonal change for once, is that too much to ask? Lately mother nature has been screwing w/ our seasonal progression big time.

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Bingo, that's it. Couldn't believe my eyes; I don't think I've ever seen a flowering plant on February 1st. Maybe we had it in 01-02, but I wasn't really paying attn to it back then.

March 2010 was incredible w/ the streak of 70s. I remember trees leafing out on March 15th. Hopefully we don't see that this year; I'd like some normal seasonal change for once, is that too much to ask? Lately mother nature has been screwing w/ our seasonal progression big time.

Last year was more normal since we had the cold snap from March 21st to April 1st, which delayed some of the seasonal change. I do remember a couple really chilly days in April 2011 even though it averaged above normal.

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A PNA ridge doesn't guarantee cold air when you have a +EPO pattern. February 2006 had a large PNA and yet much of the East averaged above normal temperatures, which you wouldn't necessarily think when you look at the pattern:

post-475-0-84650400-1328149720.png

Temps:

The current pattern features a large -AO but the blocking is on the Asian side of the globe, which favors colder temperatures in the mid-latitudes of Europe and Asia, but not as much here. You can see on this chart of 500mb anomalies that we have a monster vortex over Western AK and the Bering Strait, which is keeping Canada warm with Pacific air intruding...all the real cold is behind that vortex:

post-475-0-03118700-1328149945.gif

On the North Pacific 18z GFS, you can see how much colder the air is behind that vortex and towards Siberia/Japan:

post-475-0-77653500-1328150043.gif

very much agreed, as I stated above the vortex over AK is flooding canada with warm air. Its too bad the -AO promoted blocking on the wrong side of the globe.

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GEFS for 2/6 - 264 hours out:

post-1753-0-15175300-1328153507.gif

Today's 18z GEFS for the same date:

post-1753-0-34392700-1328153504.gif

The pattern change has not so surprisingly been delayed once again; originally the time frame after 2/4 was in the potential for the change, but now that has been delayed to the 8-10th. While I do think that the pattern will change, the GEFS have once again attempted to speed up the changes too much, and at this rate it's more likely IMO that there will be some changes including the western ridge, but the change won't be as long lasting and strong as the GEFS shows for the longer range.

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LC says watch out for hurricanes in the east this summer.

must be desparation time if we're talking about potential tropical activity in early February... It's about 50 degrees at 10:30 at night with clear skies and relatively calm winds in the suburbs on Feb 1st.. what's wrong with this picture... notice how forecast highs for this week have been upticking slowly too.. it's amazing.. when it's bad, it's BAD

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must be desparation time if we're talking about potential tropical activity in early February... It's about 50 degrees at 10:30 at night with clear skies and relatively calm winds in the suburbs on Feb 1st.. what's wrong with this picture... notice how forecast highs for this week have been upticking slowly too.. it's amazing.. when it's bad, it's BAD

DT said that the La Nina will be gone by the summer. He said that the enso will be neutral or a El Nino might develop. I'm talking to him now on facebook.

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must be desparation time if we're talking about potential tropical activity in early February... It's about 50 degrees at 10:30 at night with clear skies and relatively calm winds in the suburbs on Feb 1st.. what's wrong with this picture... notice how forecast highs for this week have been upticking slowly too.. it's amazing.. when it's bad, it's BAD

Noticed that too-Upton's coldest temp for me in the next 7 days is 43 degrees...heck of a way to run a pattern change...

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Not sure about that - if it was stronger, it would likely be colder.

Lots of moisture in the gulf at hr. 192, but the GFS loses it.

detached from the northern stream that stays flat and broad, so whatever energy there is will get shunted. (on this run, obviously, just explaining why)

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Normally snowy ORH, well inland and with 1000 feet of elevation....has measured just 13.9" of snow since December 1st...so winter hasn't even reached the high spots of eastern Massachusetts yet...

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DT said that the La Nina will be gone by the summer. He said that the enso will be neutral or a El Nino might develop. I'm talking to him now on facebook.

There is a significantly greater shot of an El Nino next winter than there ever was this year but it still may be slim at best. Neutral I'd agree with it, we may be around a -0.2 or -0.3 or so next winter.

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The mid feb storm keeps on showing up. Have to watch that one because the mjo will be favorable for us.

Stats show that MJO as a forecasting tool is woefully poor. I know you're looking for any hopeful signs but, truthfully, there's virtually nothing there. Always the possibility things will change but even the most positive signals one can find right now fall under the category of grasping at straws.

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Mother Nature and Old Man Winter have taken everyone including the con artists that make you pay for their forecasts to school this winter and really exposed how bad the pay sites really are and what a waste of money they are - we all know who they are.......

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