Analog96 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Bust? No. No one here was forecasting anything over 1-3. We got less than 1 but I would not call that a bust by any means given that we never had any confidence in this being something significant. You talk like you know everything and its very disrespectful to us here who try to make a decent forecast. I am a meteorologist, and it was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Snow on Wednesday Tuesday, and it will only be -SHSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Bust? No. No one here was forecasting anything over 1-3. We got less than 1 but I would not call that a bust by any means given that we never had any confidence in this being something significant. You talk like you know everything and its very disrespectful to us here who try to make a decent forecast. The one thing that should have been done on those TV accumulation graphics was write that the accumulations will be on grassy surfaces only. In fact, when I saw Channel 7 last night at eleven, the anchor said plows were being ready in Huntington. If their meteorologist heard that, he should have said that Huntington can put the plows away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Since the October snow event, Central Park has only had one day with accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Had about a half inch this morning, and now another light dusting tonight. Definitely not a bust at all. Not as much as we had thought, but not a bust. Bust? No. No one here was forecasting anything over 1-3. We got less than 1 but I would not call that a bust by any means given that we never had any confidence in this being something significant. You talk like you know everything and its very disrespectful to us here who try to make a decent forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I will probably see more snow falling on Tuesday than I did today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 a little coating on the grass only - BUST - call a spade a spade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 One of the best spots in the East. Hows Golden Arrow? This will be our first time staying there. Below zero tonight? I love it...stayed here numerous times, never once had any issues. Right on main street...ill walk up n down the street four or five times in the 3 days that im here lol. They have dog sled rides on the lake right out the back door, did it today, was great. We should easily get below zero, down to 3 right now, just finished ice skating in front of the high school. I think the forecast is -9 now, gonna sit on the balcony and drink some lake placid pub & brewery Ubu Ale and people watch for a bit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Mirror Lake is gorgeous. I've been to Lake placid in the summer and winter. I went in early August 2004, where a few of the days I was there stayed in the low 50s and lows dipped into the 30s. The smell of burning wood was in the air and I visited the Christmas store in town. It felt more like the end of November than the dead of summer! It's a great place to visit. I recommend it. Its amazing up here in winter....every restaurant has an outdoor fire pit, toboggan chute and sleighriding are awesome....and a 10 minute drive to Whiteface. Its number one or two on my favorite places on Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I officially love Norlun Troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Bust? No. No one here was forecasting anything over 1-3. We got less than 1 but I would not call that a bust by any means given that we never had any confidence in this being something significant. You talk like you know everything and its very disrespectful to us here who try to make a decent forecast. um...if you interviewed 10 people on the street today I'd say 10 of 10 would say this was a fail.....every local newscast led off with the story of the snowtorm and showed pics of folks stocking up on salt, shovels and other winter related merchandise as well as plows hitting the roads....the general public was expecting a plowable event. I'd say a thin coating on the grass for an hour and nothing on the road constitutes a forecast bust (since no location even verified at the low end) with all due respect....on your other point, I do agree it was a tricky forecast. And BTW I was merely answering another poster who was out of town who asked if it were a bust or not-was not trying to disrespect anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 um...if you interviewed 10 people on the street today I'd say 10 of 10 would say this was a fail.....every local newscast led off with the story of the snowtorm and showed pics of folks stocking up on salt, shovels and other winter related merchandise as well as plows hitting the roads....the general public was expecting a plowable event. I'd say a thin coating on the grass for an hour and nothing on the road constitutes a forecast bust (since no location even verified at the low end) with all due respect....on your other point, I do agree it was a tricky forecast. That is where news directors come in. A month ago, I speculated that because of the pattern, and the fact that winter weather brings in ratings, that they were going to hype even a minimal threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I officially love Norlun Troughs. It looks like someone SE of Philly is really cashing in probably 3 inches or more with several hours of 30dbz over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It looks like someone SE of Philly is really cashing in probably 3 inches or more with several hours of 30dbz over there. I had a 25 dbz band over my area for a couple of hours with that Norlun, and man was it nice. I picked up an inch or two in a couple of hours, when it was falling. It was wet snow, so it's not blowing around in the wind outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The Metfan storm is warm on the GFS because the SLP tracks too far north. January 21 2012 redux and trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 If I wanted Norfolk, Virginia's climate, I would live there.... I'd love to have Norfolk's climate. I'm glad we're getting a taste of the south this winter, I know what to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Gfs has a strong storm near 200 hours. The signal is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Gfs has a strong storm near 200 hours. The signal is big. Also the 00z GGEM. GGEM is colder on tonight's run at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Gfs has a strong storm near 200 hours. The signal is big. If even half the storms that the models had at this time frame verified, we'd have 10 feet of snow this year - 200 hrs? Really? probably no cold air anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 If even half the storms that the models had at this time frame verified, we'd have 10 feet of snow this year - 200 hrs? Really? probably no cold air anyway Wow calm down there bro at least there is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 the storm for next weekend has days to be ironed out. no one should be taking any model run seriously who knows how they've performed outside of 60 hours. we have till wednesday the earliest to figure what might happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Joe D from Weatherbell As for the United States the pattern is evolving into one favorable for a snowstorm to finally get its act together with a block in a good spot in the Davis straights suppressing the storm track and jet over the lower 48. The is the PSD reanalysis ensembles that adjusts for GFS biases and shows better skill. It is not always run and when it is only once a day at 00Z. This was last nights 360 hour 500mb anomaly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Joe D from Weatherbell thanks for the update from Weatherbust- btw we have a separate thread for mentioning all the weather clowns - used to like Joe D but since he has teamed with the hype master JB don't like him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I'm not critizicing anyone, b/c I know I say silly stuff quite often, but one of the most over used phrases whenever there is a storm possibility is the phase thrown around that "we have time to iron things out" - what this exactly means is a misnomer.. For example this weekend's event which ended up being quite different than what the NAM specifically stated a few days ago was "ironed out" (in the wrong direction) and we saw what we got.. The bottom line is that most storms never "iron out" the way we hope.. There is a reason why KU type storms are special events.. THEY ARE RARE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I'm not critizicing anyone, b/c I know I say silly stuff quite often, but one of the most over used phrases whenever there is a storm possibility is the phase thrown around that "we have time to iron things out" - what this exactly means is a misnomer.. For example this weekend's event which ended up being quite different than what the NAM specifically stated a few days ago was "ironed out" (in the wrong direction) and we saw what we got.. The bottom line is that most storms never "iron out" the way we hope.. There is a reason why KU type storms are special events.. THEY ARE RARE! you are 110 % correct KU storms are rare but some folks around here think nothing of starting a thread mentioning a KU possibility and there is no threat of that at all right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 GEFS has the MJO going through 8 and then the COD. Euro has it going through 8 and then into 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 MJO is just part of puzzle - need all the other important pieces to be there to get a snowstorm........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 12Z Nam is a little wetter with the mid week system - but its too warm here http://raleighwx.ame...2znamp24078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Seattle still has had more snow than Central Park this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Was in AC last night. Around 10-12 a solid 2 inches fell heavy snow. Powedery by the end. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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