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February Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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I will never believe the models until the same day. What a depressing turn of events. We went from 3-6 inches to 0. This might be the worst winter ever.

Its a tie between 01-02.

However, February 2002 was warmer than this.

At least January 2002 had some snow shots, parts of PA had a MECS in JAN 02.

but THIS? Absolutely nothing to track at all.

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Its a tie between 01-02.

However, February 2002 was warmer than this.

At least January 2002 had some snow shots, parts of PA had a MECS in JAN 02.

but THIS? Absolutely nothing to track at all.

'95, '98, '02, '07, and '08 were all on par with this one...though '95 did have a nice storm in February (actually the 1st snowstorm I experienced since moving to Port Jeff).

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I will never believe the models until the same day. What a depressing turn of events. We went from 3-6 inches to 0. This might be the worst winter ever.

you are obviously to young to remember 1997-1998 (5 inches on march 22nd - the Park finished with 5.5 for the year) and 2001-2002...

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I will never believe the models until the same day. What a depressing turn of events. We went from 3-6 inches to 0. This might be the worst winter ever.

Most never thought 3 to 6 inches was coming. It's not a good thing when it's almost 50 degrees the day before the storm, with temps progged to barely get to freezing during the storm. You really need heavy snow to overcome a warm ground situation like this, which was never really in the cards here. It was really only a few model runs that teased with .50 of QPF. There was nothing to be very optimistic about. This wasn't like the late January storm where we had cold temps to start out with.

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Most never thought 3 to 6 inches was coming. It's not a good thing when it's almost 50 degrees the day before the storm, with temps progged to barely get to freezing during the storm. You really need heavy snow to overcome a warm ground situation like this, which was never really in the cards here. It was really only a few model runs that teased with .50 of QPF. There was nothing to be very optimistic about. This wasn't like the late January storm where we had cold temps to start out with.

This was a setup where with a relatively decent coastal low we'd have been fine, all we needed was an hour or two of 1/2 mile moderate snow conditions and most areas would have dopped to around 30-31 and with the snow cover have stayed there, marginal events though with the temps we had do not work out ever, even in the coldest part of the winter. I always point to the March 1999 storm, it was 48 degrees at 4pm and by 11pm 32 and snowing, thats the huge advantage of living on the East Coast vs. say Indianapolis or Cincy, you can get those thermally driven storms that can really cool the bounday layer in marginal situations.

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THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD.

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Euro ensemble mean has decent precip over the area day 6-7 as well.

But in model time, it's super fantasy land this year.

I went with a snowless month and I'm still sticking with it. There is a chance something will happen but we're going to need remarkable timing of everything in order to get it to happen.

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Interesting

HPC

OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENS RUNS OF GFS/CMC/ECMWF CONTINUE TO

INDICATE KEEPING A POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SOUTH OF GREENLAND LATE

PERIOD. COMPOSITE ANALOG RUNS OF ALL OF THESE CENTER THIS ANOMALY

FARTHER WEST AS A WEST BASED NEG NAO OVER DAVIS STRAIT OR

LABRADOR. IF THIS OCCURS THE STORM TRACK WOULD BE FORCED FARTHER

SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES THE ONE MID PERIOD AND ANY POSSIBLE EJECTION

OF ENERGY LATE PERIOD OR POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS

IDEA HAS POPPED UP RECENTLY BY SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS

INCLUDING ECMWF/CMC AND JMA AT VARIOUS TIMES. LONGER TERM D+11S

SHIFT THIS ANOMALY EASTWARD TOWARDS EUROPE. BEST BET FOR NOW TO

FOLLOW AN INCREASED BLEND OF ENSEMBLES UNTIL GUIDANCE SETTLES DOWN.

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The daily " huge storm 7 days out post" - what's it come to fruition one of about 15 this year? Beginning to seem like a joke

THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD.

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