pazzo83 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Feb 1st folks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The big PNA ridge that the models had a couple of days ago is now gone. The euro ensembes continue to look like dog poo and the NAO doesn't look like it will go negative. This has been the same theme this winter. What a terrible winter. I tried to caution people here that the modeled pna ridge was a pipe dream, my posts were deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The big PNA ridge that the models had a couple of days ago is now gone. The euro ensembes continue to look like dog poo and the NAO doesn't look like it will go negative. This has been the same theme this winter. What a terrible winter. GFS looked encouraging starting around day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 GFS looked encouraging starting around day 10. Yes it did but it's always 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I tried to caution people here that the modeled pna ridge was a pipe dream, my posts were deleted. it stays raging positive for the entire 18z gfs run and has been supported by ensembles strongly. People can easily play negative nancy behind a computer screen and every one here knows you do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The big PNA ridge that the models had a couple of days ago is now gone. Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 This is the 18Z GFS snow cover map 360 hours - might be close to accurate the way this winter is going http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow360.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This is the 18Z GFS snow cover map 360 hours - might not be far off my god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 my god good response hopefully we won't be saying that for real when we look at the actual snow cover 360 hours from now - but i wouldn't wager any money on it......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I remember when some here thought today was going to be cold 10 days ago, instead its mega historic torch. I remember when you called for 1-3". LOLZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yes it did but it's always 10 days out Now you are getting it....welcome to the dark side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 LOL. John is owning everyone today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The big PNA ridge that the models had a couple of days ago is now gone. The euro ensembes continue to look like dog poo and the NAO doesn't look like it will go negative. This has been the same theme this winter. What a terrible winter. The NAO was always in question; it was never going to be like 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yes it did but it's always 10 days out For that reason, caution is warranted. But it could be that this upcoming storm is a stepping stone to a better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Finally a persistent block showing up in the long range, working with a pulsating PNA and hopefully some MJO help and we will be tracking a snowstorm before you know it. It's easy to be negative and then its ever EASIER to admit when you're wrong when its ripping snow outside. It happened all last year..so please...be negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Finally a persistent block showing up in the long range, working with a pulsating PNA and hopefully some MJO help and we will be tracking a snowstorm before you know it. It's easy to be negative and then its ever EASIER to admit when you're wrong when its ripping snow outside. It happened all last year..so please...be negative Except, there is no cold air even remotely close to the CONUS. Behind the front to our west, it is still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Given the PNA setup and the ridging out west, why exactly is there no cold air on our side of the globe. Why are all the cold anomalies completely on the opposite side of the globe? Normally with this setup, at least some cold air would be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Today just felt strange, especially now in the evening. I drove home with my windows rolled down. At night. On February 1st. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Today just felt strange, especially now in the evening. I drove home with my windows rolled down. At night. On February 1st. WTF. I think the strangest thing is, while it feels warm, it's not really a shocking feeling. Because we haven't had winter for more than 2 days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Except, there is no cold air even remotely close to the CONUS. Behind the front to our west, it is still warm. snowcover in the U.S is only like 19%, compared to last years 50%. Not good if you want arctic air, but who the hell wants frigid temperatures. Give me 32 degrees and heavy snow and that will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I think the strangest thing is, while it feels warm, it's not really a shocking feeling. Because we haven't had winter for more than 2 days in a row. The warm weather almost feels normal because this is what we've been dealing with since November 1, maybe this means that once it gets hot that it won't feel so bad, sort of like Floridians who adapt to the warmth that 90F and humid doesn't even feel bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I think the strangest thing is, while it feels warm, it's not really a shocking feeling. Because we haven't had winter for more than 2 days in a row. That's true. Any other normal year and this would have been dramatic. I can count on one hand the number of days I've felt cold this year and that's not good when we're over 2 months into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I really feel that like the October storm, we'll get some crazy late winter/early spring winter storm that dumps a foot or more on us leading to a crappy wet,chilly spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Still 60.3 here. I'm ready for some 70's. I just hope we don't get a crappy spring and/or summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Anyone check out Jeff Masters blog today in regards to the tundra moving north? Pretty relevant to what we have going on as i said earlier my daffodils are coming up big time. Without a sustained period of temps below 20 during a given winter we could start planting zone 7 plants around here, which opens up some heartier palms. I'm all about planting a palm tree and having it make it a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 snowcover in the U.S is only like 19%, compared to last years 50%. Not good if you want arctic air, but who the hell wants frigid temperatures. Give me 32 degrees and heavy snow and that will be fine You and me both dude. Maybe we can sneak something in, then it can torch from then on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Update on the streak... We are now on hour 241 of the streak in NYC of above-32F temps. The next chance to dip below 32 is Thurs night/Fri morning, but we are barely forecast to hit that mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I rememeber when we had our little 5 inch snow storm with temperatures in the 20's about 10 days ago and thinking "how chilly" it feels walking outside. Normally, 20's with snow is like bathwater for me...but it had been *so long* since I had experienced it, it actually felt a a bit strange. At that moment I thought back to a scene in The Deer Hunter when Robert DeNiro returns from 'Nam to Pennsylvania and is taken aback by the normal autumn chill in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Anyone check out Jeff Masters blog today in regards to the tundra moving north? Pretty relevant to what we have going on as i said earlier my daffodils are coming up big time. Without a sustained period of temps below 20 during a given winter we could start planting zone 7 plants around here, which opens up some heartier palms. I'm all about planting a palm tree and having it make it a few years. Most (if not all) zone 7 plants should already thrive here, even some zone 8 plants are a possibility with some protection. The immediate NYC area borderlines on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Rightttt Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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