FPizz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 They were excited about this period. I guess the models they were liking changed a bit? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 http://aeroweather.org/2012/02/07/snowfall...-range-outlook/ New blog...I do have a snow map for tomorrow's event as well but it is nothing to get excited about imo. I also see how Saturday's event could become more of a big deal, perhaps 2-4 inches. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Hello Spring http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Hello Spring http://www.cpc.ncep....10day/index.php CPC usually changes these map every other day. One day they will show below normal than the next day above normal. If one were to look at the MJO and the latest NAO trends, they would be more optimistic about the pattern for the rest of February. In turn, the PNA ridge does appear to break down which will lead to thread the needle type of storm in a more zonal flow. So...I wouldn't get too down about February just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hello Spring http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php Maybe we will make a smooth transition from fall to spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 CPC usually changes these map every other day. One day they will show below normal than the next day above normal. If one were to look at the MJO and the latest NAO trends, they would be more optimistic about the pattern for the rest of February. In turn, the PNA ridge does appear to break down which will lead to thread the needle type of storm in a more zonal flow. So...I wouldn't get too down about February just yet. I think 99 % of us are down on February already - there is no reason to be optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 next winter: Weak-Mod El Nino, perhaps; some blocking, zing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yup even gets ABE up to around 40 degrees at 18 Z Saturday What's so special about Allentown? If you said AVP or something...I might be impressed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 February is not done. Stop being weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 February is not done. Stop being weenies. Agreed. People complain with 2(albeit small) threats this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 What's so special about Allentown? If you said AVP or something...I might be impressed.... Probably because if Allentown which is inland and a valley away from the influence of the ocean more or less ..and we are getting up to 40 the BL in NYC is going to be at least at that range as well.. And it does SAT 12Z 11-FEB 1.4 -4.9 1009 92 98 0.07 538 531 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 4.9 -6.1 1004 66 70 0.05 530 527 SUN 00Z 12-FEB -1.0 -8.1 1006 57 56 0.02 524 519 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Probably because if Allentown which is inland and a valley away from the influence of the ocean more or less ..and we are getting up to 40 the BL in NYC is going to be at least at that range as well.. And it does SAT 12Z 11-FEB 1.4 -4.9 1009 92 98 0.07 538 531 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 4.9 -6.1 1004 66 70 0.05 530 527 SUN 00Z 12-FEB -1.0 -8.1 1006 57 56 0.02 524 519 Thats nasty! That doesn't bode well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Probably because if Allentown which is inland and a valley away from the influence of the ocean more or less ..and we are getting up to 40 the BL in NYC is going to be at least at that range as well.. And it does SAT 12Z 11-FEB 1.4 -4.9 1009 92 98 0.07 538 531 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 4.9 -6.1 1004 66 70 0.05 530 527 SUN 00Z 12-FEB -1.0 -8.1 1006 57 56 0.02 524 519 Truth be told I haven't investigated the particular synoptic setup....there are certainly times ABE is warmer than Northern LI / S Shore CT...it is actually south of NYC's latitiude....and if the weather map is set up a certain way...even in winter...it can be warmer @ABE as a mid latitude cyclone nears...if the warm air is approaching from the SW...like I said...I haven't looked at the setup for this event...there are many times ocean influence barely makes it to Newark or LGA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Truth be told I haven't investigated the particular synoptic setup....there are certainly times ABE is warmer than Northern LI / S Shore CT...it is actually south of NYC's latitiude....and if the weather map is set up a certain way...even in winter...it can be warmer @ABE as a mid latitude cyclone nears...if the warm air is approaching from the SW...like I said...I haven't looked at the setup for this event... Basically the same setup you showed where mtk has more snow (colder) then western LI, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Basically the same setup you showed where mtk has more snow (colder) then western LI, Though that was more of a Pittsburgh / NYC comparison....Allentown is east of the mountains and benefits from CAD that Pittsburgh does not see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Though that was more of a Pittsburgh / NYC comparison....Allentown is east of the mountains and benefits from CAD that Pittsburgh does not see... Cold air does have a better chance of getting trapped in ABE and the general Lehigh Valley area than NYC; and they are a much higher ice storm risk than the coast...though way up in the atmosphere it will warm just as fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This would be an all snow situation for nyc proper the island ne nj and sw ct. 850s are plenty cold, polar air working into the system, wet bulbs would in the 20s, lets just hope it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 so far NYC has only 25 days with a minimum 32 degrees or lower...It had a 30 day period 1/2-1/31 of 37.0...This is slightly cooler than the record 37.3 set in 1997-98... min days. 25 2011-12 so far... 47 2001-02 49 1997-98 50 1998-99 53 1982-83 54 1990-91 57 1996-97 59 1952-53 59 1972-73 60 1957-58 60 1994-95 season....coldest 30 day ave... 1997-98.....37.3............ 2011-12.....37.0......... 1948-49.....36.3......... 1931-32.....35.8.......... 2007-08.....35.7.......... 1952-53.....35.5.......... 2001-02.....35.4.......... 1936-37.....34.9.......... 1990-91.....34.5.......... 1932-33.....33.9.......... 1950-51.....33.0.......... 1974-75.....33.0.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 What's so special about Allentown? If you said AVP or something...I might be impressed.... Well he does live there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Truth be told I haven't investigated the particular synoptic setup.... I do not have the ECMWF map...but if it similar to the RGEM simulation...dragging a Low along the NY / PA border and east into New England...well, *everyone* south of there would warm up for a period...ocean wouldn't be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Well he does live there... My dad was born in Bethlehem...now if that isn't proof of my divinity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 That's what non-believers call the Christian religion. Remember, if you don't believe something but others do, to you it may just seem like a bunch of myths. Should have known coming from that poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Cant wait for the snow tomorrow. Woooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 My dad was born in Bethlehem...now if that isn't proof of my divinity... I went to harrisburg when I was younger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Cant wait for the snow tomorrow. Woooo. Not the place to post about your drug addictions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I've measured 5.1" of snow this season...IIRC, there was more last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I've measured 5.1" of snow this season...IIRC, there was more last year... Very rough winter to go through so far with the lack of threats and lack of snow. Going way back i think its easier to get dud winters around here then big ones. Obviously not in this last decade but historically speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I've measured 5.1" of snow this season...IIRC, there was more last year... I have had no more than 3 inches this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I haven't seen a snowflake beyond light flurries for 5 minutes since October. How appropriate that this year's AMS beckoned us away the day before our last "snowstorm". I'm close to getting through this entire meteorological winter without seeing any accumulating snow... that'd be a feat. I'm loving the 00Z NAM's forecasted radar for tomorrow evening. Could it find any other ways to avoid my location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Looks like you will see some nice 10dbz snows if you are still up at 5z!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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