bluewave Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Just like with those occasional 1-2 day cold snaps in December and January, were probably going to see another one this weekend and just like those, it may be colder than forecast. I'm thinking at least one sub freezing high. This is one really consistent pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro weeklies came in much cooler than last week. The only problem is that it has a +EPO,-PNA and +NAO going forward, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 HM Classic Heather A storm with a +NAO to -NAO transition before truncation. What a beautiful setup on the GFS this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 0z GFS looks really beautiful as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 HM Its nice to hear his thoughts...but this winter its tuff to get interested in anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Just for kicks: 4PM EST SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5, 1978 HEAVY SNOW WARNING...A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY... GALE WARNINGS AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ALSO... THIS STORM HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS YET...THEREFORE WE ARE NOT ABLE TO BE SURE ABOUT THE TOTAL AMOUNTS THAT MIGHT BE EXPECTED...SINCE THE FUTURE PATH AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THE PROSPECTIVE STORM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING ONE OF THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS IN NEW YORK CITY WEATHER HISTORY...IF IT DEVELOPS EVEN CLOSE TO ITS POTENTIAL IT SHOULD MATCH THE SNOWSTORM OF LAST JANUARY 20TH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 0z GFS looks really beautiful as we move forward. All winter long you've gotten excited about the occasional long range model runs that show something good. At some point, you have to realize it just isn't our winter. Don't believe anything that looks good until it gets within short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If the MJO forecasts are correct, there will likely be some winter storms for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Just for kicks: 4PM EST SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5, 1978 HEAVY SNOW WARNING...A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY... GALE WARNINGS AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ALSO... THIS STORM HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS YET...THEREFORE WE ARE NOT ABLE TO BE SURE ABOUT THE TOTAL AMOUNTS THAT MIGHT BE EXPECTED...SINCE THE FUTURE PATH AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THE PROSPECTIVE STORM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING ONE OF THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS IN NEW YORK CITY WEATHER HISTORY...IF IT DEVELOPS EVEN CLOSE TO ITS POTENTIAL IT SHOULD MATCH THE SNOWSTORM OF LAST JANUARY 20TH. Man that is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 HM As many of us have been outlining here, the Feb 10th-20th period was one to watch given the transition state of the atmosphere in a number of respects. I personally have liked the synoptics much better for the feb 14-16 time frame as opposed to this weekend's threat, in which the PV will probably crush the short wave offshore. Obviously it can't be written off yet, but I'd say at this point chances of snow this weekend are pretty slim. However, next week, the PV that provides are direct discharge of arctic air for Sat-Mon moves due east to an almost classic 50-50 position in SE Canada. As we've discussed before, the greenland block can be missing in some of our bigger events, but usually the 50-50 low is a key ingredient in holding sfc high pressure over Quebec, getting a nice NELY ageostrophic flow w/ plentiful low level cold air down the northeast corridor. As short waves attack from the southwest, we wouldn't change to rain due to the anchoring 50/50 acting as a temporary block. If this were to verify, it would quickly erase the depression on these boards to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Stats of the night: number of days since Dec 1 where the daily min has equaled or exceeded the avg daily max: 12 12/5: low: 47 / Avg max: 47 12/6: 56 / 46 12/15: 47 / 43 12/21: 42 / 41 12/22: 48 / 41 12/31: 46 / 39 Total: 6 1/1: 41 / 39 1/7: 46 / 38 1/12: 41 / 38 1/24: 42 / 38 1/27: 40 / 39 Total: 5 2/1: 48 / 39 Total: 1 Number of days since Dec 1 where the daily max was equal to or below the avg daily min: 3 12/18: 31 / 31 Total: 1 1/4: 27 / 27 1/15: 27 / 27 Total: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 At the buoy 20 miles south of the Fire Island Inlet, the current sea surface temperature is 46 F...which is at least 7 to 9 degrees above where you would expect it to be on 7 February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 At the buoy 20 miles south of the Fire Island Inlet, the current sea surface temperature is 46 F...which is at least 7 to 9 degrees above where you would expect it to be on 7 February... Yeah, the warmth really locked in early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Just for kicks: 4PM EST SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5, 1978 HEAVY SNOW WARNING...A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY... GALE WARNINGS AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ALSO... THIS STORM HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS YET...THEREFORE WE ARE NOT ABLE TO BE SURE ABOUT THE TOTAL AMOUNTS THAT MIGHT BE EXPECTED...SINCE THE FUTURE PATH AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THE PROSPECTIVE STORM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING ONE OF THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS IN NEW YORK CITY WEATHER HISTORY...IF IT DEVELOPS EVEN CLOSE TO ITS POTENTIAL IT SHOULD MATCH THE SNOWSTORM OF LAST JANUARY 20TH. Great find! There was nothing like the late 1970's here for the combination of bitter cold, snow, and ice. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477%281978%29059%3C0562%3APONIFA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 HM Classic Heather A storm with a +NAO to -NAO transition before truncation. What a beautiful setup on the GFS this run. what is a Heather A storm and when is she supposed to hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The Euro control model (basically the Euro extended out to 360 hrs) brings the developing system at 240 hrs up the coast, deepening it as it moves NNE to a point near Virginia Beach at 994mb at 264 hrs. with moderate snow falling here, then continuing to deepen to 990mb about 100 miles off shore of NJ at 270 hrs with heavy snow falling. The cold air arrives just as the storm is moving in with total snowfall of 6-12 inches area wide. It looks somewhat similar to ensemble member 3 on the 6z GFS, just not quite as deep and further offshore. http://www.meteo.psu...RS_6z/f252.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I posted in our thread and the MA thread that this was sort of interesting. The EC ensembles and the GFS op do try to look similar at H5, but have different outcomes. I would not get excited for anything, but maybe something to watch as models may be back and forth with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Talk about strong agreement on a storm at 240 hours out. The Euro control run (basically the Euro extended out to 360 hrs. does nearly the same thing that the latest run of the GFS does, except the Euro is a little further off the coast and more snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i literally just saw a very healthy looking fly on the outside of my window.... the thing is outside... alive... and well. this winter stinks so bad it's attracting flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 In a year where we have yet to see a true noreaster-or clipper for that matter, I'd be highly suspicuous of any model run showing one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm not very worried about the GFS changing the look of the VD storm since it's so far out.. but hopefully we can cash in on the 2 short term threats. Long term storms have not worked out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 isotherm's mixing of christian mythology and meteorology saddens me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Big ol bag of nothing on the Euro for the next several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Big ol bag of nothing on the Euro for the next several days What are u looking at? For wed event it has .10 south of the city.....gives the area light snow saturday night-sunday.....trys to mix some southern energy in now......and a inv feature for ct on sunday....granted its early...and we are not talking about a massive storm.....but it will feel like winter verbatiam on the 12z euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm not very worried about the GFS changing the look of the VD storm since it's so far out.. but hopefully we can cash in on the 2 short term threats. Long term storms have not worked out so far. GFS keeps bounching the center of that PV around like a superball. I guess it's to be expected at that range. We'll probably see a lot more until it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro brings the cold .. Its the kind of air mass that gets you to near 0 in the pine barrens if there were Snow cover . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 isotherm's mixing of christian mythology and meteorology saddens me Can't please everyone. But, the similarities struck me as interesting (esp the mystery element). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What are u looking at? For wed event it has .10 south of the city.....gives the area light snow saturday night-sunday.....trys to mix some southern energy in now......and a inv feature for ct on sunday....granted its early...and we are not talking about a massive storm.....but it will feel like winter verbatiam on the 12z euro... Agree Tim. The period from tomorrow-mid next week will probably be the most wintry feeling of the winter thus far, though that's not saying a lot. I know quite a few people who bought plows this autumn after getting pumped up from the past 2 winters, and those plows have been rotting in their yards. Our winters just aren't reliably snowy enough to have great income from plowing, maybe if we get a maunder minimum going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Minus 20 air over those warm lakes should make for some nice lake effect snows , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Just for kicks: 4PM EST SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5, 1978 HEAVY SNOW WARNING...A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY... GALE WARNINGS AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ALSO... THIS STORM HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS YET...THEREFORE WE ARE NOT ABLE TO BE SURE ABOUT THE TOTAL AMOUNTS THAT MIGHT BE EXPECTED...SINCE THE FUTURE PATH AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. i have the audio of that recorded off of the noaa vhf radio station... along with the rest of their broadcasts from that storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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