PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the snow part is a laugher, however +5 is easily reachable, and actually well within the possibilities, already have a nice head start thanks to 3 very warm days, another torch today and a warm day tomorrow, and fire around Vday......... Its the " 50 percent " i disagreed with . Whats th other 50 perc 1 below 3 below - 8 above ? what isnt 50 percent .... just not profound IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the snow part is a laugher, however +5 is easily reachable, and actually well within the possibilities, already have a nice head start thanks to 3 very warm days, another torch today and a warm day tomorrow, and fire around Vday......... The longer range remains highly uncertain, but I guess I should expect another very mild month. After all that anticipation of the PNA, the MJO, the long range models showing blocking and a massive PNA ridge, the pattern is going to turn out exactly like December and January, what a joke. On the bright side, we may actually record a negative departure day this weekend. I think most of us are just ready to put this miserable winter behind us and look forward to next winter, which can only be better than this one, once it hits March 1, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Its the " 50 percent " i disagreed with . Whats th other 50 perc 1 below 3 below - 8 above ? what isnt 50 percent .... just not profound IMO . Do you understand anything about probability? The other 50% would be less than +5 and more than 0 snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the snow part is a laugher, however +5 is easily reachable, and actually well within the possibilities, already have a nice head start thanks to 3 very warm days, another torch today and a warm day tomorrow, and fire around Vday......... Let's be clear here-you predicted not too long ago that Feb would feature a -2.5 temp departure and a bucketload of snow...what happened to that? and let's remember, in 01-02 Feb had no snow...this year's temp departures and lack of precip are very similar to that winter. If we miss Wed and this weekend and it warms up right after that, zero snow becomes much more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 A friend of mine in England just shared a photo of snow... you know, to remind us of what it looked like care to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 care to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Do you understand anything about probability? The other 50% would be less than +5 and more than 0 snowfall. Since I run an Equity despersion book im pretty familiar with probablitly , ( not sure if u know what equity desperson is ) . saying anything other than departures 5 above and 0 snowfall is equal to a 50 perc chance that inifity can happen being viewed as equal probablity is just clutter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Cool thanks. New snow pictures never get old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyk Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I have to move 70,000 cs of Rock Salt so I'm dying for one more threat/storm for a glimmer of hope, check out Typhoon Tip's new thread in the New England Forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Since I run an Equity despersion book im pretty familiar with probablitly , ( not sure if u know what equity desperson is ) . saying anything other than departures 5 above and 0 snowfall is equal to a 50 perc chance that inifity can happen being viewed as equal probablity is just clutter . You mean equity dispersion? In any event, what he is saying is rather binary: If there is a 50% chance of A happening, it logically follows that there is ALSO a 50% chance that not A happens. It isn't clutter because it's saying that there is a one-in-two chance of seeing +5 departures with 0 snow, which by itself is quite anomalous for feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 You mean equity dispersion? In any event, what he is saying is rather binary: If there is a 50% chance of A happening, it logically follows that there is ALSO a 50% chance that not A happens. It isn't clutter because it's saying that there is a one-in-two chance of seeing +5 departures with 0 snow, which by itself is quite anomalous for feb. I think we are arguing about 2 different things . You had to look at the history of the poster to see why many people view him the way they do. He`s not posting it as a forecast . The arguement wasnt a statiscal one , but answering just another post of " TORCH " " RAIN " " THERES NO STORM " . It just always seems to be a NEG post . It was related to the history . So when I posted I guess 50 perc of anything else could happen as clutter , was meant as yes infinity can happen . And yes its one of the larger " disperion " book on the street . Trading correlation and watching the weather at the same time , makes for bad typing and grammer at times . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I think we are arguing about 2 different things . You had to look at the history of the poster to see why many people view him the way they do. He`s not posting it as a forecast . The arguement wasnt a statiscal one , but answering just another post of " TORCH " " RAIN " " THERES NO STORM " . It just always seems to be a NEG post . It was related to the history . So when I posted I guess 50 perc of anything else could happen as clutter , was meant as yes infinity can happen . And yes its one of the larger " disperion " book on the street . Trading correlation and watching the weather at the same time , makes for bad typing and grammer at times . Fair enough. So does the GFI in your sn stand for GFI the broker-dealer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Fair enough. So does the GFI in your sn stand for GFI the broker-dealer? Yes the Parent company , We run an internal structured book out of NY and London as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 what a joke-2 days of cold this weekend surrounded by a sea of warmth and dryness... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 34 years ago today..biggest Long Island blizzard ever..the one they compare other storms too here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Looks like the GFS MJO forecast is now caving to the Euro as we hit a brick wall into the COD before phase 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 ^^^^ Noreaster just got pawned again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Why is he stil allowed to post if he is posting blatantly false information? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 34 years ago today..biggest Long Island blizzard ever..the one they compare other storms too here Almost to the minute 34 years ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Why is he stil allowed to post if he is posting blatantly false information? It wasn't false, a couple days ago the ECMWF had the MJO wave dying in phase 8, and I agreed w/ him that it was more likely to verify. However, today's guidance now suggests the Euro is coming into line w/ the GFS's more potent depiction of MJO wave propagation. Possibly b/c the GFS has a better read on ongoing convection in the Indian Ocean; we'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 How's the Euro look for the clipper system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It wasn't false, a couple days ago the ECMWF had the MJO wave dying in phase 8, and I agreed w/ him that it was more likely to verify. However, today's guidance now suggests the Euro is coming into line w/ the GFS's more potent depiction of MJO wave propagation. Possibly b/c the GFS has a better read on ongoing convection in the Indian Ocean; we'll see how it goes. When you talk about whether stuff will verify, you provide sound scientific reasoning....please dont take my post(s) as any type of attempt to ridicule you...i have learned more from your posts (and john, HM, etc) this year than i thought was possible. Some here just like to troll and poo poo on "threats" without any reasoning whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 When you talk about whether stuff will verify, you provide sound scientific reasoning....please dont take my post(s) as any type of attempt to ridicule you...i have learned more from your posts (and john, HM, etc) this year than i thought was possible. Some here just like to troll and poo poo on "threats" without any reasoning whatsoever. The issue of persistence has to be taken into account--while there is technically no scientific reasoning, i.e. last year was persistently stormy and this year is not, one has to take that into consideration when factoring in a model that wants to dump a foot of snow on us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro flip floped again. Look at this cold for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Just like with those occasional 1-2 day cold snaps in December and January, were probably going to see another one this weekend and just like those, it may be colder than forecast. I'm thinking at least one sub freezing high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Nice day today. A little chilly this morning though, some frost on the car...yawn. Can't wait for beach weather and to kick Trials ass in golf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The issue of persistence has to be taken into account--while there is technically no scientific reasoning, i.e. last year was persistently stormy and this year is not, one has to take that into consideration when factoring in a model that wants to dump a foot of snow on us this year. With regards to sensible weather and the pattern? Yeah i can agree with that. But this is about the mjo, and considering its never really been where it already is right now, this season, im not sure that holds water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Just like with those occasional 1-2 day cold snaps in December and January, were probably going to see another one this weekend and just like those, it may be colder than forecast. I'm thinking at least one sub freezing high. Exciting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro flip floped again. Look at this cold for this weekend. Can you (or anyone) post those maps for fri-sunday too? On my phone and it wont load for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro flip floped again. Look at this cold for this weekend. Hopefully it flip flops again, I don't like the sight of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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