CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We all know he is over there waiting by the computer for the latest run of the 18z Serbian model. The MOS from the CRAS (Czech Regional Assimilation System) just came in with 8s in the snow category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You're all in a lot of trouble. Especially Jorge and Adam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 London Telegraph wrote a good article today: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9055933/Snow-to-fall-in-London-as-bitterly-cold-weather-grips-Britain.html This part of the article is shocking and unfortunate: Amazingly, the Sahara Desert, which had no snow for 33 years until a brief fall in western Algeria last month, faces an inch of snow by the weekend. Meteogroup forecaster Stephen Davenport, who said parts of north Africa face six inches of powder, said: “The deep cold is spreading surprisingly far south. “It will deliver snow to Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica and, most remarkably, possible low level snow in north Africa, although it is unlikely to settle.” One person is dying every five minutes due to cold weather this week, as Britain reels from a winter death rate twice as high as some of the world’s coldest countries, according to the Department of Health’s Chief Medical Officer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 06Z Friday SYNOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So we broke 0F this morning. PRG (Prague Ruzyne Airport) went down to -2F and the lowest I saw for the City Center was 1F. I took a walk before work, from my apartment, down to the main city square, Vaclavske Namesti, and then to my office-- a loop of less than 1 mile-- just around when we were having the lowest temps. I was curious what it would feel like. My basic takeaway is that I can't believe people in Moscow and Kiev actually put up with this-- and much worse-- on a fairly regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 What does this mean for the East Coast? That's easy. Average to mild values - more of the same thru early March. Then equal chances for a normal spring or a cooler than normal spring with above normal rainfall. Then above normal temps for summer - some possibility of very high temps in July-August-September I've seen this so many times. Welcome to la nina in Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew-Northern Italy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Starting the get cold here. After the snow of the last days (expecially in Piedmont and Emilia-Romagna, with 20 inches in Bologna and Cuneo), this morning first clearings with lows till 4°F in Parma. Next days will be colder, with lows below 0°F in various areas of northern Italy. Cuneo http://84.240.165.5/...r=1284638754790 Bologna Modena http://www.modenamet...bcam_modena.php Turin http://torinometeo.org/webcam/webcam.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew-Northern Italy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Couple of video from Bologna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Couple of video from Bologna Grazie Matteo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Chris, Yup, it doesn't have to always flip favorably imby, the other half of the hemisphere has just as much of a chance. Hey Tony! Indeed, even when the block is centered more directly on top of the North Pole (which the one in Siberia is not of course), it is not guaranteed where the cold rushes south to..we ideally want those favorable extensions from the mid-latitudes across the NAO/EPO regions to drive it down here..and that has obviously not worked out this winter... Can't win 'em all I guess. And I know many long range guys take satisfaction in seeing the declining sun and warm punches out of the stratosphere successfully leading to or at least paring with this -AO period. That is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew-Northern Italy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 snowing in Rome ! Not so a rare thing, but sticking snow doesn't happen every winter down there ... http://videochat.corriere.it/index_H2401.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Thanks for the video Matthew. It's always wonderful in Italy and oh how I would love to be there in heavy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Rome reporting moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Italy in the snow has to be magical. I can tell already just looking at the video from Roma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 European synoptics are weird to a North American eye, at least during blocking episodes. Cold air moves westward and small-scale features drop southwest, like reverse nor'easters of small energy. Then the Atlantic tries to move parts of the block, fails and cold ripples back west through decaying troughs. That's what will likely happen this weekend and early next week across southeast England where they are looking at potential for 10-20 cms (4-8 inches) of snow Saturday night into Sunday, with more to follow if the block holds. Forecast models seem to have divided into two camps, the GFS/GEM strengthen the blocking and eventually push the cold air back west of the U.K. into Ireland (where it is being expelled today) but the Euro and UKMO seem more disposed to keep pushing weak Atlantic fronts further east setting the boundary back into Germany to eastern France. What it all implies for the northeast U.S., I would say, is that the chances for colder weather improve gradually if not dramatically as at least a weak blocking regime should develop further west as well. Of course, it's more significant for the northeast that a very warm ridge is developing across the west coast, we could easily be out on the golf course here this weekend. I believe the torch pattern just ended and won't reload except in minor near-normal episodes, meanwhile, colder air masses will get more of a green light from a northwesterly flow developing across central Canada towards southern Quebec. If we can get a vortex to deepen over Quebec then at least colder temperatures will lock in, storm track may stay largely offshore however unless we then see that vortex linking to any troughing further west around Nebraska. Looks more like a Miller-B type signal than Miller-A for snow potential later in the month. If a big storm does develop as I've said in my LRF, would expect the track of it to be something like TN-VA-NS. There's even something vaguely 1888 or 1993-like about this long slow buildup. Could be pointing to the one huge late storm outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Great videos, Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 IMO, the severe cold in Europe does not necessarily mean that February will grow severely cold in North America. In fact, at least the eastern portion of North America was warmer than normal while large parts of Europe were colder than normal in February during the 1955-56, 1975-76, and 1998-99 La Niña winters. FWIW, the same composite that yielded a very warm February forecast for much of North America (#703 in the "Medium Range Discussion Winter 2011-12" thread) had a lot of cold in Europe. The comparison of the North America and Europe composites is below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Where are the clown maps for Alergia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 European synoptics are weird to a North American eye, at least during blocking episodes. Cold air moves westward and small-scale features drop southwest, like reverse nor'easters of small energy. Then the Atlantic tries to move parts of the block, fails and cold ripples back west through decaying troughs. That's what will likely happen this weekend and early next week across southeast England where they are looking at potential for 10-20 cms (4-8 inches) of snow Saturday night into Sunday, with more to follow if the block holds. Forecast models seem to have divided into two camps, the GFS/GEM strengthen the blocking and eventually push the cold air back west of the U.K. into Ireland (where it is being expelled today) but the Euro and UKMO seem more disposed to keep pushing weak Atlantic fronts further east setting the boundary back into Germany to eastern France. What it all implies for the northeast U.S., I would say, is that the chances for colder weather improve gradually if not dramatically as at least a weak blocking regime should develop further west as well. Of course, it's more significant for the northeast that a very warm ridge is developing across the west coast, we could easily be out on the golf course here this weekend. I believe the torch pattern just ended and won't reload except in minor near-normal episodes, meanwhile, colder air masses will get more of a green light from a northwesterly flow developing across central Canada towards southern Quebec. If we can get a vortex to deepen over Quebec then at least colder temperatures will lock in, storm track may stay largely offshore however unless we then see that vortex linking to any troughing further west around Nebraska. Looks more like a Miller-B type signal than Miller-A for snow potential later in the month. If a big storm does develop as I've said in my LRF, would expect the track of it to be something like TN-VA-NS. There's even something vaguely 1888 or 1993-like about this long slow buildup. Could be pointing to the one huge late storm outcome. Interesting points Roger, but recall that 1993 had already seen some significant snow events in Ontario by this time ( December 1992 in Toronto, January 13, 1993 in Ottawa). The euro weeklies seem to be indicating that spring is right around the corner with no true cold air anywhere on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 IMO, the severe cold in Europe does not necessarily mean that February will grow severely cold in North America. In fact, at least the eastern portion of North America was warmer than normal while large parts of Europe were colder than normal in February during the 1955-56, 1975-76, and 1998-99 La Niña winters. FWIW, the same composite that yielded a very warm February forecast for much of North America (#703 in the "Medium Range Discussion Winter 2011-12" thread) had a lot of cold in Europe. The comparison of the North America and Europe composites is below: I agree Don. Perosnally I would stick a fork in this winter for most of North America. There is absolutely nothing indicating that any prolonged stretch of cold and snowy weather is on tap for us; in fact quite the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew-Northern Italy Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7TQUxGo6Pk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I agree Don. Perosnally I would stick a fork in this winter for most of North America. There is absolutely nothing indicating that any prolonged stretch of cold and snowy weather is on tap for us; in fact quite the opposite. Ottawa Blizzard, At this time, I don't see the cold locking in, even if the short-lived but sharp cold shot shown on the 12z Euro materializes. Already, looking ahead to the February 16-22 timeframe, a growing body of the data I'm looking at suggests milder than normal readings could be present in the East (including the Toronto area). At the same time, the cold could be easing in western Europe with the coldest anomalies centered farther east. That's still not cast in stone, but milder conditions would probably fit some of the long-range modeling (ECMWF weeklies and CFSv2 weekly forecasts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Ottawa Blizzard, At this time, I don't see the cold locking in, even if the short-lived but sharp cold shot shown on the 12z Euro materializes. Already, looking ahead to the February 16-22 timeframe, a growing body of the data I'm looking at suggests milder than normal readings could be present in the East (including the Toronto area). At the same time, the cold could be easing in western Europe with the coldest anomalies centered farther east. That's still not cast in stone, but milder conditions would probably fit some of the long-range modeling (ECMWF weeklies and CFSv2 weekly forecasts). Don, with all due respect to them as mets, you have to wonder if Joe Bastardi ( http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi ) and Ryan Maue ( http://twitter.com/RyanMaue ) are grasping at straws. Pretty much nobody else sees a cold pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Currently between -15 and -20 C in Holland (the Netherlands) at about 0500 local time. This is exceptional cold by their standards. The way the current low in KS is failing to lift mild air north, it does look as though a higher amplitude pattern may be slowly developing. I would not give up on late winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 06Z Saturday Temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 TSSN in Algiers, Algeria. DAAG 041000Z 25001KT 2000 -SN SCT010 FEW030CB SCT033 BKN080 01/M00 Q1024 RETS= DAAG 040930Z 20005KT 1500 -TSRA SCT006 FEW030CB SCT033 BKN080 01/00 Q1024= DAAG 040900Z 20005KT 8000 SCT006 FEW030CB SCT033 BKN080 01/00 Q1023= DAAG 040830Z 18006KT 7000 SCT006 FEW030CB SCT033 BKN080 01/00 Q1022= DAAG 040800Z 18007KT 7000 -SN SCT006 FEW030CB SCT033 BKN080 01/M00 Q1022= DAAG 040730Z 19006KT 5000 -SN BKN006 FEW030CB 01/M00 Q1022 RETS= DAAG 040700Z 26006KT 0900 R23/P2000U R09/1900VP2000U TSSN OVC005 FEW030CB 00/M00 Q1022= DAAG 040630Z 27007KT 0900 R23/P2000D R09/P2000D SN SCT010 FEW026TCU BKN080 01/M00 Q1021= DAAG 040600Z 26005KT 220V290 4000 -SNRA SCT010 FEW026TCU BKN080 01/01 Q1021= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Today was a little warmer in Prague-- the afternoon highs got into the upper teens-- but the forecast suggests a second pulse of cold air is coming, with overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night once again getting down to around 0F. The coldest temp at PRG in this cold snap was -2F yesterday morning-- which is nothing compared to the extreme cold they've been having in Minsk, Moscow, and Kiev. We really got off easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Friend sent me this picture yesterday from Novi Sad Serbia. Between 2-3' of snow and more snow forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Currently between -15 and -20 C in Holland (the Netherlands) at about 0500 local time. This is exceptional cold by their standards. The way the current low in KS is failing to lift mild air north, it does look as though a higher amplitude pattern may be slowly developing. I would not give up on late winter yet. It would be interesting to know the last time Amsterdam made it down to 0F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 They broke their record by 31 degrees wow!!!! Min Temperature -1 °F 34 °F 30 °F (2001) It would be interesting to know the last time Amsterdam made it down to 0F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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