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Feb 2nd-4th Severe Thread


andyhb

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1144 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE INTO ADJACENT WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23...

VALID 030544Z - 030715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23

CONTINUES.

RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS REVEALED PERSISTENT/INCREASING

CONVECTION...WITH A BAND OF MORE INTENSE/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS

EXTENDING FROM W OF PVW NEWD INTO S CENTRAL KS. WITHIN THIS BAND OF

STORMS...A FEW CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT -- BUT

TEMPORARILY INTENSE -- ROTATION IN LOWER LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FROM

NEAR AMA NEWD INTO NWRN OK.

WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO MOISTEN AND SHEAR IN THE

LOWEST COUPLE OF KM QUITE STRONG...THE ONGOING/LOW-END TORNADO

POTENTIAL HAS BECOME A GREATER CONCERN GIVEN THE NOTED INTENSITY OF

THESE QUASI-TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STILL...WITH VERY

WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER

REMAINS A BIT DECOUPLED...TORNADO THREAT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT

LIMITED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXAMINE RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL

EVOLUTION WITHIN THIS REGION...AND ANY POSSIBLE NEED FOR UPGRADE TO

TORNADO WATCH WITHIN PARTS OF THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 02/03/2012

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35229822 34349815 33820129 34300228 36030096 37139933

37789821 36779766 35229822

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WFUS54 KAMA 030701

TORAMA

TXC211-393-030730-

/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0001.120203T0701Z-120203T0730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

101 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 130 AM CST

* AT 1255 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE

DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE

MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIAMI...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MIAMI...LORA AND

CANADIAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES

AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 10045 3573 10022 3562 10059 3570 10070

TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 231DEG 28KT 3567 10056

$$

TB

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My returns on GRLevel2 are showing a lot of holes on the radar...looks like bad data to me. Anybody else have more luck?

it had a decent couplet for a time (4700-6700kft up). it's moving into an increasingly unfavorable enviroment and it's falling apart rapidly now.

back farther southwest, the cold front is sharp. Amherst, TX is 56/52, while 20SM to the northwest it's 38/17 in Muleshoe, TX.

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Tornado watch OK/TX.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COLD

FRONT DRYLINE INTERSECTION FROM SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX. STORMS

SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ENE INTO AN INSTABILITY

AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE TO 1200 J/KG AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6KM

SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS AND

CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE O-2KM WIND FIELDS

WERE BEGINNING TO VEER OVER FAR SWRN OK...SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR WAS

NOTED ON THE TLX/PURCELL PROFILERS TO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF A

COUPLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS.

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Not sure why they waited 8 minutes to re-issue the SVR for this storm when

they said it was intensifying in their SVS.

That was interesting especially considering the wording you mentioned, clear 8 minute gap between warnings. Not sure what happened there. Wouldn't be the first time Warngen didn't work as planned. Then again that is why it is always good to prepare a new warning prior to expiration.

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TOG near Snook, TX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

654 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TXC041-051-040100-

/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120204T0100Z/

BURLESON TX-BRAZOS TX-

654 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR BRAZOS

AND BURLESON COUNTIES...

AT 648 PM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO

NEAR SNOOK. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF WELLBORN...OR

9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

POWER LINES WERE DOWNED IN SNOOK ACCORDING TO LAW ENFORCEMENT.

THE TORNADO WILL PASS NEAR COLLEGE STATION AND WELLBORN. LARGE HAIL

IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

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The rotation has really broadened out on the latest scan just southwest of College Station. Doesn't msp live there?

A large mesocyclone with hail (pebble to egg-sized) and a hook echo with a confirmed tornado from Snook (damage here to structures) across the Brazos River to Wellborn. The tornado dissipated before Pebble Creek area. Tremendous street flooding with 4-6 in of rain. Numerous water rescues in CLL and Bryan.

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The rotation has really broadened out on the latest scan just southwest of College Station. Doesn't msp live there?

wild night. posted about it in the tx thread. we appeared to be right where the original couplet was heading, too. they're using boats to rescue people in bryan right now like mentioned above. campus had several feet of water on some roads.

there were a lot of panicking people inside the restaurant as we watched the storm blow through. lots were getting reports of tornado touchdowns just to the southwest in snook and wellborn, and kbtx was up and live with weather info on all the bar and restuarant tvs. we saw a transformer blow just down the road at one point.

parking lot of one of the off-campus student apartments in town:

https://twitter.com/...6071937/photo/1

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From the tor warned cell SW of Canadian Thur night...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

520 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY CONFIRMS EF-1 TORNADO IN

EXTREME NORTHEAST GRAY...FAR SOUTHEAST ROBERTS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST

HEMPHILL COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO TEXAS HAS COMPLETED A DAMAGE

ASSESSMENT FROM THE EF-1 TORNADO IN EXTREME NORTHEAST GRAY...

FAR SOUTHEAST ROBERTS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST HEMPHILL COUNTIES ON

FEBRUARY 3RD.

THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN AT A FEED LOT ON STATE HIGHWAY 152 AT

1242 AM CST. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 13 MILES WITH A

MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 100 YARDS. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED AT 103 AM CST IN

EXTREME SOUTHWEST HEMPHILL COUNTY.

DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED SPORADICALLY ALONG THE 13 MILE PATH SUGGESTING

THAT THIS TORNADO WAS NOT NECESSARILY ON THE GROUND THE ENTIRE TIME.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TORNADO TRACK...THERE WAS A HORSE BARN

DAMAGED AS WELL AS A CENTER PIVOT IRRIGATION SYSTEM OVERTURNED. TWO

MILES TO THE NORTHEAST...TWO ADDITIONAL CENTER PIVOT IRRIGATION

SYSTEMS WERE TWISTED AND OVERTURNED. AN ADDITIONAL TWO MILES TO THE

NORTHEAST...TWO SINGLE POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED AT THE BASE AS WELL

AS SOME FARM EQUIPMENT WAS STREWN ACROSS FARM FIELDS. WINDS WERE

ESTIMATED AT 100 MPH WITH THIS TORNADO. THE MOST EXTREME DAMAGE WAS

SNAPPED POWER POLES.

THERE WERE NO REPORTED INJURIES OR FATALITIES REPORTED.

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wild night. posted about it in the tx thread. we appeared to be right where the original couplet was heading, too. they're using boats to rescue people in bryan right now like mentioned above. campus had several feet of water on some roads.

there were a lot of panicking people inside the restaurant as we watched the storm blow through. lots were getting reports of tornado touchdowns just to the southwest in snook and wellborn, and kbtx was up and live with weather info on all the bar and restuarant tvs. we saw a transformer blow just down the road at one point.

parking lot of one of the off-campus student apartments in town:

https://twitter.com/...6071937/photo/1

Round 2 is on tap for later tonight as the front begins to plow into the moist stuff. I had KBTX reports streaming while talking to my daughter in a bathroom on campus in the A&M Library annex and son hiding in the home hallway. 3 satellite loops rolling as well. The meso continued to veer just S enough to veer S of College Station. I could hear the hail pounding the building with a strong E wind, which was frightening because it meant the entire meso was rotating hard on its WSW to ESE track..

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We didn't have anything too exciting here in the Ft. Smith area. Lots of cloud-to-ground lightning here though. And some loud boomers.But nothing to really write home about. There was a report of a trapped individual around lake wister when his Trailer flipped from the winds. But he was later rescued and believed to be ok. But the town of waldron didn't fare too well. Hopefully we will get more on it tomorrow from the local news stations. Definitely ready for Severe weather season to kick in high gear. Love this type of weather so much more than winter.

"ESTIMATED 60-70 MPH WINDS CAUSED DAMAGE IN A 2-MILE SWATH ACROSS WALDRON. DOZENS OF TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ... AS WELL AS STREET LIGHTS. SEVERAL HOUSES HAD" per spc report.

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Sad news from the chasing community this evening... news reports indicate the accident was caused by a 'wrong-way' driver and the vehicles collided head on..

via:

SevereStudios Storm Chasers

Some very sad news to report tonight. Our storm chaser and friend Andy Gabrielson was killed in a car accident on I-44 in Oklahoma this afternoon. This was confirmed to me by his dad Greg via phone about 6:30 this evening. My thoughts and prayers are with the Gabrielson family and our extended storm chaser family as well. _Kory

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Sad news from the chasing community this evening... news reports indicate the accident was caused by a 'wrong-way' driver and the vehicles collided head on..

via:

SevereStudios Storm Chasers

Some very sad news to report tonight. Our storm chaser and friend Andy Gabrielson was killed in a car accident on I-44 in Oklahoma this afternoon. This was confirmed to me by his dad Greg via phone about 6:30 this evening. My thoughts and prayers are with the Gabrielson family and our extended storm chaser family as well. _Kory

Oh,NO!!!

We in the Chaser community have lost a friend. Please give my condolances to his family.

Melissa

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