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February 2012 - Obs/Disco/Banter


NorEastermass128

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Another nice late summers day in February.

Who was laughing about 60 not long ago? Maybe by the end of the month we can approach 70, that'd offer some real excitement.

Why not? We did last year around the 18th, at least here in NY metro. I know EWR definitely was 70+ in that mid-month warmth last Feb.

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Well to be fair... Will and others said that the FRI and SUN threats would have been gravy if they were to occur. The real pattern change wouldn't take hold until later next week and that is when we would start having threats within the pattern. So maybe 2/10-12 will work out.

That said, I haven't been following the evolution of this pattern change that much. I've read some dire posts in which the change is fizzling out. If that is the case...ugh.

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Back down in the mid 30's here at 11:40 on Feb 1st. High today was 45. I had been going through photos of last years epic snow and came across one so I figured I'd do a before and after. I tried to make the second one smaller but my photo editing program was being a pain and I didn't feel like messing with it all night so here are the pictures.

Last year today: post-1860-0-60456000-1328156670.jpg

This year today: post-1860-0-05886000-1328157345.jpg

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39.8/31

Looking at the extended forecast...the lowest high for me for the next 7 days is 38, next Wednesday.

Sure I live on the "tropical" Connecticut shoreline, but at least once a winter, from what I remember, there are usually 2 or 3 days in a row with highs in the single digits to lower teens.

Looks like this might not be the year, unless the middle to end of February holds some kind of arctic pattern.

Other than the 8 inches of snow from the last storm down here, and the 4 from the October storm, this has been one of the worst winters I can ever remember. Maybe we can get a couple nice storms between February and March, but it looks like the window of opportunity is closing ever so slowly.

I think you're embellishing things a bit with respect to how cold a place you live. For example, BDR in its entire 60+ year history has had just 10 days with highs in the low teens or lower. There have been only two streaks of consecutive days of highs in the low teens or lower: 2/17-18/1958 and 1/8-9/1968. If you want to pick a high temperature where you can say it averages a streak of at least two days at or below that high temperature each winter, that temperature would be 23 for BDR. There have been 31 streaks of 2+ days with highs at or below 23 at BDR in the current 30-year normals period.

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My average temp for yesterday/today was a solid +19.8°F on the day from my 29 year average. I was curious when my last -19.8°F+ day was and I had to go back all the way to last January!

I also noticed that this mornings ground temperatures are the warmest they've been on February 2nd since I started keeping track of them in 2001. That's interesting because through 2/1/2002 I had an average met. winter temp of 34.5°F and this met. winter we've averaged 32°F and it follows less than 2 weeks after having been through our coldest stretch of the winter!

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My average temp for yesterday/today was a solid +19.8°F on the day from my 29 year average. I was curious when my last -19.8°F+ day was and I had to go back all the way to last January!

I also noticed that this mornings ground temperatures are the warmest they've been on February 2nd since I started keeping track of them in 2001. That's interesting because through 2/1/2002 I had an average met. winter temp of 34.5°F and this met. winter we've averaged 32°F and it follows less than 2 weeks after having been through our coldest stretch of the winter!

I'd imagine it has to do with the fact that yesterday was a torch whereas in 2002, we had a torch at the end of January, but the first few days of February had low temps in the teens.

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My average temp for yesterday/today was a solid +19.8°F on the day from my 29 year average.  I was curious when my last -19.8°F+ day was and I had to go back all the way to last January!

I also noticed that this mornings ground temperatures are the warmest they've been on February 2nd since I started keeping track of them in 2001.  That's interesting because through 2/1/2002 I had an average met. winter temp of 34.5°F and this met. winter we've averaged 32°F and it follows less than 2 weeks after having been through our coldest stretch of the winter!

Interesting stats Herb, no wonder the flowers are popping out.

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Meanwhile dark looking skies with some modest CU build up actually heading inland towards me from the water. Mini cold surge coming in from the Gulf of Maine. Maybe some pockets of SHSN along the coast later on or tonight.

Nasty looking but with the water so warm I'm at 44 with an ocean wind where normally it'd be 38 or so.

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