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February Observation/Discussion


Isopycnic

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From the latest Huntsville AFD: http://www.daculaweather.com/afd_hun.php

POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STRONG

COLD ADVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE MAY ALLOW RAIN TO

BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS

TOO REMOTE OF A POSSIBILITY TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

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How often do we/will we continue to see this in the models? via RAH

THE LATEST GFS AND NOW THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODELS DEPICT ALMOST

DOUBLE THE QPF OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION THAN

THE 12Z/NAM WITH THE EVENT. YET... THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IN

PARTICULAR THE SPC WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT MINIMAL QPF OVER CENTRAL

NC. THIS LACK OF QPF MAY BE THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE NCEP MODELS

TYPICAL FAILURE IN CAPTURING GULF COAST CONVECTION AND ITS ROLE IN

DISRUPTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS UPSTREAM.

HOWEVER... THE LATEST EURO SUPPORTS HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CENTRAL NC

WITH THE CONVECTION FALLING APART AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH

LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL KEEP CURRENT

CATEGORICAL POP IN PLACE... AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST RAINFALL

AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.25. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT SPREAD EAST ACROSS

GA... AND THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT (35-45KT SSW FLOW 925-850MB)

IN THE MODELS IS NOT DISRUPTED... THEN QPF OF UP TO A HALF INCH

WOULD BE LIKELY.

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Gotta love it... from RAH

RADAR TRENDS GENERALLY SUM UP THE SITUATION QUITE WELL. A QPF BUST

IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE EARLIER MCS THAT TRACKED EAST

ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST STATES HAS WEAKENED AS IT

PUSHED TOWARD THE GA/FL EAST COAST. YET... THE CONVECTION HAD A

CONSIDERABLE AFFECT DOWNSTREAM (NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THROUGH

THE CAROLINAS)... BASICALLY DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE INFLUX NORTHWARD

AND CREATING A SHADOW AFFECT IN NOT ALLOWING RAIN (AS WIDESPREAD AS

ADVERTISED) TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. WE SUSPECTED YESTERDAY THAT

GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF

INTO OUR REGION AND THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE. HOWEVER... IT HAS BEEN

MORE DRAMATIC THAT WE SUSPECTED.

THE NCEP MODELS FORECAST A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR BETTER WITH THIS

EVENT... AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST VERY LITTLE.

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS YESTERDAY FOR PICKING

UP ON THIS. THE NCEP MODELS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS FAILED WITH THIS

EVENT THUS FAR.

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Gotta love it... from RAH

RADAR TRENDS GENERALLY SUM UP THE SITUATION QUITE WELL. A QPF BUST

IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE EARLIER MCS THAT TRACKED EAST

ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST STATES HAS WEAKENED AS IT

PUSHED TOWARD THE GA/FL EAST COAST. YET... THE CONVECTION HAD A

CONSIDERABLE AFFECT DOWNSTREAM (NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THROUGH

THE CAROLINAS)... BASICALLY DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE INFLUX NORTHWARD

AND CREATING A SHADOW AFFECT IN NOT ALLOWING RAIN (AS WIDESPREAD AS

ADVERTISED) TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. WE SUSPECTED YESTERDAY THAT

GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF

INTO OUR REGION AND THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE. HOWEVER... IT HAS BEEN

MORE DRAMATIC THAT WE SUSPECTED.

THE NCEP MODELS FORECAST A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR BETTER WITH THIS

EVENT... AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST VERY LITTLE.

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS YESTERDAY FOR PICKING

UP ON THIS. THE NCEP MODELS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS FAILED WITH THIS

EVENT THUS FAR.

Just cannot get any rain to central/ne NC... watching the rainfall dry up on the radar is saddening... :(

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THE NCEP MODELS FORECAST A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR BETTER WITH THIS

EVENT... AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST VERY LITTLE.

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS YESTERDAY FOR PICKING

UP ON THIS. THE NCEP MODELS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS FAILED WITH THIS

EVENT THUS FAR.

Isn't this reason to not take the ECMWF and GFS outputs as gospel truth at this stage? We're still a ways out from the High-Res models being able to forecast this weekend's system, and those global models failed miserably today. (Yes, I know it's a different setup - today versus this weekend, but it's the principle of the matter.)

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Well... rain is about over here. A whopping .04" and 0.41" for the month. Can't get snow, can't get rain, can't get cold, can you feel my pain. I hear a country song in the making... :violin:B)

I got a whopping .2 out of this storm which goofy said would give me an inch and a quarter just a few days back. Need to get the Rain Mizer off the spigot :)

I'm curious how the weekend storm produces. I'm doubting if goes right over me like it's showing. I'm guessin it goes south, and I end up with another few tenths, and still no snow, lol. T

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U lucky dog... I got about a tenth of an inch. . . a lot less than I was hoping for. Maybe our storm this weekend can drop some rain, but I expect to get dry slotted and end up with another disappointing showing in the rain guage.

.24 here. I'll take it. Only have 2.67 for the year. Not a good start.

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We got lucky and got under an W-E training band for a while this afternoon and ended up with .47" for the day! Certainly a lot better than the predicted 10th or less! Kept me out of the yard, but that's OK. Now let's see what the weekend has in store. It holds a lot of promise for wetness, wonder who might see some whiteness?

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We got lucky and got under an W-E training band for a while this afternoon and ended up with .47" for the day! Certainly a lot better than the predicted 10th or less! Kept me out of the yard, but that's OK. Now let's see what the weekend has in store. It holds a lot of promise for wetness, wonder who might see some whiteness?

Not bad. I'm glad for my quarter inch. As for the chances of my seeing whiteness this weekend I would have a better chance at A&T's homecoming. :P

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I got a whopping .2 out of this storm which goofy said would give me an inch and a quarter just a few days back. Need to get the Rain Mizer off the spigot :)

I'm curious how the weekend storm produces. I'm doubting if goes right over me like it's showing. I'm guessin it goes south, and I end up with another few tenths, and still no snow, lol. T

Goofy and Dr No are insisting that it will rain :wub:

Total of 0.33" nice

I had .12 today and that means for the month I'm at .13 :lol:

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