Gastonwxman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 A nice 63 for a high today. Course, I never like it when it's warm in winter but this gives me a chance to get in on a bike ride when the opportunity comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 From the latest Huntsville AFD: http://www.daculaweather.com/afd_hun.php POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE MAY ALLOW RAIN TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS TOO REMOTE OF A POSSIBILITY TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How often do we/will we continue to see this in the models? via RAH THE LATEST GFS AND NOW THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODELS DEPICT ALMOST DOUBLE THE QPF OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION THAN THE 12Z/NAM WITH THE EVENT. YET... THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IN PARTICULAR THE SPC WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT MINIMAL QPF OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS LACK OF QPF MAY BE THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE NCEP MODELS TYPICAL FAILURE IN CAPTURING GULF COAST CONVECTION AND ITS ROLE IN DISRUPTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS UPSTREAM. HOWEVER... THE LATEST EURO SUPPORTS HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH THE CONVECTION FALLING APART AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL KEEP CURRENT CATEGORICAL POP IN PLACE... AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.25. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT SPREAD EAST ACROSS GA... AND THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT (35-45KT SSW FLOW 925-850MB) IN THE MODELS IS NOT DISRUPTED... THEN QPF OF UP TO A HALF INCH WOULD BE LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 .69" so far for February. Radar looks juicy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 .69" so far for February. Radar looks juicy out west. .72" for Feb here man, and yep Ive got my eye on the rains in the southern half of MS, hoping they drift far enough north to bring us longer lasting rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well... rain is about over here. A whopping .04" and 0.41" for the month. Can't get snow, can't get rain, can't get cold, can you feel my pain. I hear a country song in the making... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 HPC forecast rain for today .5 to .75 inches. Actual rainfall .02. I'm glad this wasn't a winter storm or it would have been an epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Gotta love it... from RAH RADAR TRENDS GENERALLY SUM UP THE SITUATION QUITE WELL. A QPF BUST IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE EARLIER MCS THAT TRACKED EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST STATES HAS WEAKENED AS IT PUSHED TOWARD THE GA/FL EAST COAST. YET... THE CONVECTION HAD A CONSIDERABLE AFFECT DOWNSTREAM (NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS)... BASICALLY DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE INFLUX NORTHWARD AND CREATING A SHADOW AFFECT IN NOT ALLOWING RAIN (AS WIDESPREAD AS ADVERTISED) TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. WE SUSPECTED YESTERDAY THAT GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF INTO OUR REGION AND THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE. HOWEVER... IT HAS BEEN MORE DRAMATIC THAT WE SUSPECTED. THE NCEP MODELS FORECAST A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR BETTER WITH THIS EVENT... AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST VERY LITTLE. CONGRATULATIONS TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS YESTERDAY FOR PICKING UP ON THIS. THE NCEP MODELS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS FAILED WITH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Gotta love it... from RAH RADAR TRENDS GENERALLY SUM UP THE SITUATION QUITE WELL. A QPF BUST IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE EARLIER MCS THAT TRACKED EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST STATES HAS WEAKENED AS IT PUSHED TOWARD THE GA/FL EAST COAST. YET... THE CONVECTION HAD A CONSIDERABLE AFFECT DOWNSTREAM (NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS)... BASICALLY DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE INFLUX NORTHWARD AND CREATING A SHADOW AFFECT IN NOT ALLOWING RAIN (AS WIDESPREAD AS ADVERTISED) TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. WE SUSPECTED YESTERDAY THAT GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF INTO OUR REGION AND THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE. HOWEVER... IT HAS BEEN MORE DRAMATIC THAT WE SUSPECTED. THE NCEP MODELS FORECAST A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR BETTER WITH THIS EVENT... AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST VERY LITTLE. CONGRATULATIONS TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS YESTERDAY FOR PICKING UP ON THIS. THE NCEP MODELS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS FAILED WITH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. Just cannot get any rain to central/ne NC... watching the rainfall dry up on the radar is saddening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 THE NCEP MODELS FORECAST A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR BETTER WITH THIS EVENT... AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST VERY LITTLE. CONGRATULATIONS TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS YESTERDAY FOR PICKING UP ON THIS. THE NCEP MODELS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS FAILED WITH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. Isn't this reason to not take the ECMWF and GFS outputs as gospel truth at this stage? We're still a ways out from the High-Res models being able to forecast this weekend's system, and those global models failed miserably today. (Yes, I know it's a different setup - today versus this weekend, but it's the principle of the matter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 MHX forecasted high today is 58, just made it up to 50 around the noon hour and still sitting there under -rn. Likely going to bust on temps by a good margin, 6-8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 More rain than what was forecasted in our area.Temps made it to 50 but are at 1:45 its dropped to 47 now.Does anyone know when our next cold front is coming through?Also do we have anything close to last weekends cold coming ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well... rain is about over here. A whopping .04" and 0.41" for the month. Can't get snow, can't get rain, can't get cold, can you feel my pain. I hear a country song in the making... I got a whopping .2 out of this storm which goofy said would give me an inch and a quarter just a few days back. Need to get the Rain Mizer off the spigot I'm curious how the weekend storm produces. I'm doubting if goes right over me like it's showing. I'm guessin it goes south, and I end up with another few tenths, and still no snow, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wholly cow, it's raining!!! 0.06" at the house so far! EDit 0.12" Edit : 0.20" Edit: 0.30".. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Huh...I'm back under pretty good rain, though it isn't too impressive on radar, it might find me another .1 if it goes on a bit. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We're up to .08" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Picked up another .05. I'll take it, but would rather see a flooding T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 MHX forecasted high today is 58, just made it up to 50 around the noon hour and still sitting there under -rn. Likely going to bust on temps by a good margin, 6-8 degrees. I'd say the Atlanta area busted in similar fashion. Never could clear the clouds and get sunshine like it was forecasted to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Total of 0.33" nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Total of 0.33" nice U lucky dog... I got about a tenth of an inch. . . a lot less than I was hoping for. Maybe our storm this weekend can drop some rain, but I expect to get dry slotted and end up with another disappointing showing in the rain guage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Finished with .16" as a system total, which is a big disappointment. I really thought from looking at the radar last night we would easily beat a half inch. Maybe we will have better luck this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 U lucky dog... I got about a tenth of an inch. . . a lot less than I was hoping for. Maybe our storm this weekend can drop some rain, but I expect to get dry slotted and end up with another disappointing showing in the rain guage. .24 here. I'll take it. Only have 2.67 for the year. Not a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 .10" here Hopefully the weekend storm will bring some....something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We got lucky and got under an W-E training band for a while this afternoon and ended up with .47" for the day! Certainly a lot better than the predicted 10th or less! Kept me out of the yard, but that's OK. Now let's see what the weekend has in store. It holds a lot of promise for wetness, wonder who might see some whiteness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We got lucky and got under an W-E training band for a while this afternoon and ended up with .47" for the day! Certainly a lot better than the predicted 10th or less! Kept me out of the yard, but that's OK. Now let's see what the weekend has in store. It holds a lot of promise for wetness, wonder who might see some whiteness? Not bad. I'm glad for my quarter inch. As for the chances of my seeing whiteness this weekend I would have a better chance at A&T's homecoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 A whopping 0.03 inch here in Hickory. A whole lot of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I got a whopping .2 out of this storm which goofy said would give me an inch and a quarter just a few days back. Need to get the Rain Mizer off the spigot I'm curious how the weekend storm produces. I'm doubting if goes right over me like it's showing. I'm guessin it goes south, and I end up with another few tenths, and still no snow, lol. T Goofy and Dr No are insisting that it will rain Total of 0.33" nice I had .12 today and that means for the month I'm at .13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Goofy and Dr No are insisting that it will rain I had .12 today and that means for the month I'm at .13 It's amazing to me how you can keep beating my low totals What is your average for Feb? Can you remember back that far, with the help of dusty records Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm thinking the outer cylinder of my rain gauge may finally get some use from this upcoming storm. We shall see if I break that one inch mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You guys can have all of my rain this weekend. My yard has never been completely dry all winter. Here's wishing you guys in a drought all the QPF!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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