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February Observation/Discussion


Isopycnic

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It was 35 at 4:30 a.m. and crystal clear. By 7, it had risen to 39 and was raining. The sky just before sunrise was a poster child for the old saying, "Red sky at morning...", and when I did an about face, the alpenglow in the rain was incredible. Click on the image for the full picture.

post-1004-0-12498200-1328104523.jpg

post-1004-0-81201000-1328104540.jpg

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mcd0090.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0710 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MS/NWRN AL/SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22...

VALID 020110Z - 020245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22

CONTINUES.

FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED/BOWING LINE OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS

CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS ATTM...WITH SOME NEW

STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING E AND NE OF THE MAIN LINE -- INTO SRN

MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STORMS ARE MOVING

THROUGH ERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS -- WHERE DAYTIME

HEATING WAS MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A MUCH

COOLER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FARTHER E... ACROSS

MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL.

WITH ELEVATED CAPE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF NRN

MS AND INTO/ACROSS NRN AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...WITH A

PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEADILY DECREASING

INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH

-- AND THUS IT APPEARS THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 02/02/2012

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32799041 33009055 33318963 33878921 34368928 34788815

34928800 35438756 35558671 33898686 32728803 32799041

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:angry:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. H850 FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME DOWNSLOPE 06Z-09Z...ENDING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY DAYBREAK THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

-- End Changed Discussion --

EDIT: To say I had 23 raindrops :lol:

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:angry:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. H850 FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME DOWNSLOPE 06Z-09Z...ENDING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY DAYBREAK THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

-- End Changed Discussion --

EDIT: To say I had 23 raindrops :lol:

Dang, girl! Time to leave those portals behind!! I wasn't even trying and pulled down .3, lol. And looking for 70 degrees tomorrow.....the only time I could be happy with these stats is in July!!! Or last Dec., lol. T

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Not surprising.... our predicted tenth to quarter inch overnight has been reduced to a tenth or less... On the bright side, I did pick up a trace about 90 minutes ago.

Dropped mine to "occasional showers" and dropped mention of any amount. I did get .12 earlier this evening.

EDIT: Oops. Misread. Still saying tenth to a quarter so they verified.

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:angry:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. H850 FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME DOWNSLOPE 06Z-09Z...ENDING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY DAYBREAK THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

-- End Changed Discussion --

EDIT: To say I had 23 raindrops :lol:

My 0.06" almost created a puddle!

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Dang, girl! Time to leave those portals behind!! I wasn't even trying and pulled down .3, lol. And looking for 70 degrees tomorrow.....the only time I could be happy with these stats is in July!!! Or last Dec., lol. T

Yes it is time to leave these dang portals :lol: Looking for an afternoon high of 75 today, maybe I'll start working on my tan :sun:

My 0.06" almost created a puddle!

CAE recorded .01 ;)

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