CranberryWX Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 That warm air is def making its way towards you. Areas to your SW in Kentucky are already approaching the mid-60s with dews approaching the upper 50s. There have already been 3-4 tor warnings not too far from L'ville this morning. There's a break between this current batch of light storms moving through and the line associated with severe weather in central KY. From the satellite view there doesn't appear to be any chance of the sun breaking through before it gets to my back yard. So, maybe not so bad...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I forgot how refreshing a solid moderate rain and 41 degrees feels. Who needs snow or warm sun when such a refreshing day is on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 These are some solid mod rains in all those yellows on radar. Today will be a soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Rain 40/38 0.25" as of 9 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Monthly temp anomalies through the 28th: DCA: +5.2F BWI: +5.8F (!!!!) IAD: +4.6F Perhaps the stats-minded folks can jump in, but I've got to believe that at least BWI and DCA are near record levels. Top 5 at least? Also. It's raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I forgot how refreshing a solid moderate rain and 41 degrees feels. Who needs snow or warm sun when such a refreshing day is on tap. As long as the last remaining bits of road brine/salt are washed away I'm loving today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 40 up here with steady rain. Have gotten some patches of heavy rain every once and awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Monthly temp anomalies through the 28th: DCA: +5.2F BWI: +5.8F (!!!!) IAD: +4.6F Perhaps the stats-minded folks can jump in, but I've got to believe that at least BWI and DCA are near record levels. Top 5 at least? Also. It's raining. DCA will have the 4th warmest February on record. BWI will be somewhere around there too, but there are a couple of close ones. Up to 0.43" at home so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 DCA will have the 4th warmest February on record. BWI will be somewhere around there too, but there are a couple of close ones. Up to 0.43" at home so far. Just passed 0.70" at home in Clarksburg. It's POURING (in downtown at SW too). 38.9°F / 40°F with a due S wind of 6mph. Nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Just passed 0.70" at home in Clarksburg. It's POURING (in downtown at SW too). 38.9°F / 40°F with a due S wind of 6mph. Nice storm. 0.71" here and the highest rates of the storm so far. Looks like the back edge is clear of I-81 so we'll break before round 2 later. Looks like the models did a pretty good job with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 RN+ 41/39 Up to 0.71" for the storm so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Another line of storms is moving through with a few rumbles of thunder. It keeps warming up dispite the rain, currently 63/60. It feels like the gulf coast outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Very slight bit of clearing showing up on the visible behind the initial batch. Don't know if we'll see any of it in the metro regions. Storm total 0.90" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Round 1 in the books at 0.99". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Rain slowed down. Had a few rumbles of thunder earlier. .83 of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Rain has cleared off, but watching that line in WV advancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 FYI, 1300z SPC OTLK had 2% TOR not even in LWX area and only in SW VA. 1630z SPC OTLK now has it in all of VA and is basically SW of a line from KIAD to KDCA, along with this tiny mention: PRE-FRONTAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE DESTABILIZATION ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR NEW STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 FYI, 1300z SPC OTLK had 2% TOR not even in LWX area and only in SW VA. 1630z SPC OTLK now has it in all of VA and is basically SW of a line from KIAD to KDCA, along with this tiny mention: Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Meh. Thanks Ian 12z GFS advertising large SRH values in the 0-3 and 1km levels.. but LI's are positive and CAPE is nil 12z NAM at KIAD at 18z has SRH near 800 but still same no CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Meh. very meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 TOR WATCH issued for just outside RNK CWA in SW VA Lee/Scott/Wise counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The HRRR likes us for 4 distinct rounds of precip today. The main batch that just passed, round two which is getting ready to enter Virginia, round 3 which is that mess from Charleston, WV back into KY which gets here just after sundown, and then a final line that sweeps through around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The HRRR likes us for 4 distinct rounds of precip today. The main batch that just passed, round two which is getting ready to enter Virginia, round 3 which is that mess from Charleston, WV back into KY which gets here just after sundown, and then a final line that sweeps through around midnight. I'm impressed if that comes true. The round that is in the area around 00z on that model looks like substantial rain and then this sucker comes through at 04z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 FWIW, in the last round at 03z... LI's are negative and there is some CAPE... and SRH's are moderate... so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm impressed if that comes true. The round that is in the area around 00z on that model looks like substantial rain and then this sucker comes through at 04z No composite reflectivity. Bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 FWIW, in the last round at 03z... LI's are negative and there is some CAPE... and SRH's are moderate... so we shall see - We will get NOTHING! No composite reflectivity. Bad! If Yoda can grasp at straws I will do the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Hey, lol. I just want a thunderstorm, thats all. Anything close to severe is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 For our WV peeps MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 291824Z - 291900Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR WITH THE AFFECTED OFFICES. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /REF. 18Z WILMINGTON OH SOUNDING/. FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. SVR STORMS OVER KY WILL LIKELY MOVE NEWD TOWARD WV DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT /REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 183/. ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... http://spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0185.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 49 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 140 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012 TORNADO WATCH 49 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC027-051-010200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0049.120229T1840Z-120301T0200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN DICKENSON WVC005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-029-035-039-043-045-047- 051-053-059-067-069-073-079-081-085-087-095-099-103-105-107-109- 010200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0049.120229T1840Z-120301T0200Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRAXTON BROOKE CABELL CALHOUN CLAY DODDRIDGE FAYETTE GILMER HANCOCK JACKSON KANAWHA LINCOLN LOGAN MARSHALL MASON MCDOWELL MINGO NICHOLAS OHIO PLEASANTS PUTNAM RALEIGH RITCHIE ROANE TYLER WAYNE WETZEL WIRT WOOD WYOMING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 132 WWUS30 KWNS 291835 SAW9 SPC AWW 291835 WW 49 TORNADO KY OH VA WV LE 291840Z - 010200Z AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 25NNW CAK/AKRON OH/ - 60SSW HTS/HUNTINGTON WV/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /15SE CLE - 63ENE LOZ/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050. You beat the weather radio...lol Most of the western half of WV under the Watch. 67/62 with no sun....If we get some breaks in the clouds that would shoot up the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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