WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 Getting close to 70F in DC Thursday? Wind direction looks favorable to maybe get the extra bump in the afternoon temps to reach that point. GFS was pretty chilly next week, so I expect the Euro to show a mega-torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Strong storms, possible hail and high winds in my forecast for today and later with the front Thursday night. Tomorrow looks like a great day to take off from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Only got down to 39 at the house this morning vs a low of 24 yesterday. I think overcast conditions will keep anyone from reaching 70 tomorrow, but anything is possible. I'm not quite ready for the 60s or 70s. That said, I'm not really sure I want 20s or 30s unless we're going to get snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 that cluster of storms in TN look very spring-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's, um, "nice" out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Maybe we'll have a quick spring and go right into summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Smells like Spring. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The heat is on. My temps have already risen 8 degrees from the low. 42 at 5 a.m. 50 now with brisk SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 54 and climbing. Really want to hit 70. Zone "only" has the high to 66 and Tony Pann on WBAL this morning gave a range for 60 - 65. Hope both bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 posted this over in banter, but probably should have been here: 12z NAM shows some breaks in the clouds (pre-frontal) in the late morning and early afternoon...temps get into the low to mid 70's; CAPE ~ 500/750 J/kg; shear was never an issue with this system (although uni-directional tomorrow); at the very least LWX will probably have to add thunder and wouldn't be surprised in the new Day 2 SPC outlook moves the slight risk up to around the MD/PA border (or at least mentions the potential for an upgrade given uncertainty in the instability tomorrow.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Chris, I'm glad you posted this. I kinda stink at reading models for thunder and I was wondering if we had some of the ingredients in place for tomorrow. I plan on investing some time this spring learning how to better identify chances for storms and severe. This lack of tracking winter has left me jonesing for new knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 LWX WFO issues Fire Weather Watch: http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/4990213 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Chris, I'm glad you posted this. I kinda stink at reading models for thunder and I was wondering if we had some of the ingredients in place for tomorrow. I plan on investing some time this spring learning how to better identify chances for storms and severe. This lack of tracking winter has left me jonesing for new knowledge. I'd still classify it as a marginal risk.....cloud bases are going to be quite high in the afternoon...LCLs are over 1000m...if anything they should be pretty and great to photograph towers (assuming there is development).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 LWX WFO issues Fire Weather Watch: http://inws.wrh.noaa...ertinfo/4990213 Oh lovely...a bunch of kids from the neighborhood here like to start a fire in the woods on Friday nights. I'll have to keep an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'd still classify it as a marginal risk.....cloud bases are going to be quite high in the afternoon...LCLs are over 1000m...if anything they should be pretty and great to photograph towers (assuming there is development).... I'm just hoping for some thunder. My whole family (except the dog, lol) like thunderstorms in general. I'll bring my new camera to work tomorrow just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 posted this over in banter, but probably should have been here: 12z NAM shows some breaks in the clouds (pre-frontal) in the late morning and early afternoon...temps get into the low to mid 70's; CAPE ~ 500/750 J/kg; shear was never an issue with this system (although uni-directional tomorrow); at the very least LWX will probably have to add thunder and wouldn't be surprised in the new Day 2 SPC outlook moves the slight risk up to around the MD/PA border (or at least mentions the potential for an upgrade given uncertainty in the instability tomorrow.). I'd go more conservative and put the Slight Risk up through SE VA, with a See Text up to the MD/PA border based on the NAM. I just don't think it'll come together as fast as we would need it to up this way. 12z GFS is coming in now and it's slower, so that's a good sign for those who want storms/severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'd go more conservative and put the Slight Risk up through SE VA, with a See Text up to the MD/PA border based on the NAM. I just don't think it'll come together as fast as we would need it to up this way. 12z GFS is coming in now and it's slower, so that's a good sign for those who want storms/severe. I think that's a good assessment and a more likely course of action from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 First day w/o running the heat in the car this morning and temps were knocking on 60F by 11am(at least by the bank thermos, lol) Great day out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The 12z NAM looks pretty impressive with regards to the synoptic wind threat. Here's a screenshot from BUFKIT - take a look just after 18z tomorrow. Additionally, LWX in their update this morning says that a wind advisory is a near certainty with a high wind watch being evaluated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Additionally here is the NAM potential wind gust map for 21z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Severe thread for tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 46F right now. We're going to get a 20F bump before the front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 46F right now. We're going to get a 20F bump before the front? It's 49 here. No way that the temp is jumping 20F after 12:30 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Additionally here is the NAM potential wind gust map for 21z tomorrow Sigh...if only we could get a snow map that looks like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Almost 1pm and temps still in the upper 40s. Think the temp forecast for most of MD is going to bust at the very least. Might get to 60, but I think 70 is probably not reachable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 really glad i wore a short sleeve shirt today for work...not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It's 49 here. No way that the temp is jumping 20F after 12:30 PM. Maybe not, but it is currently 71 in Cho, 79 in Richmond, 81 in the tidewater, and 72 in Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Maybe not, but it is currently 71 in Cho, 79 in Richmond, 81 in the tidewater, and 72 in Roanoke. it's funny, i was on the phone w/ someone from richmond two hours ago and she couldn't believe me when i disagreed about how nice a day it was. she said it was sunny and 80 there, and i told her it was 49,cloudy, and drizzly here. we warmed up to 59 a little while ago when some sun broke out, but the clouds have returned and it's down to 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I guess I can record another Trace - show shower in Burke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Nice T inArlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.