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February Short Range Obs/Discussion Thread


WxUSAF

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I dunno if this goes here or in the storm thread.... but I think here is better so it doesnt get lost... great post by Coastal

Euro ensembles still break down the ridge and try to torch the east near Valentines Day. They still continue that trend.

Before that, there is still a pretty good storm signal near the 10th to the 12th as the long wave trough gets into a better position for some sort of storminess in the East. Obviously too early to say if it would be more interior or coastal...but the signals are there.

It's what happens after that's the problem. We may break out of the pattern..or at least walk the line as mild Pacific air enters the country. However, guidance is still at a disagreement with the GEFS and GEM having more ridging, less Pacific flow and therefore colder air and a better trough signal in the east The EC flattens the ridge out and actually floods the country with milder air. This has been a trend in the last 48-60 hrs. It does to build a little ridging back up again near the end of the run as the Aleutian low tries to send more ridging into AK, but that's far out in time.

The other guidance basically has trended a bit towards the EC, but they also remain a bit stubborn and do not break down the ridging. I'd still probably blend some of the guidance together, as all models may be displaying some of their bias in the long range, but you can't ignore what the EC is doing. However I think tropical forcing and placement of Aleutian low may argue that the EC could be a bit fast in flipping the PNA negative. Regardless, I just don't like seeing the better guidance show a quicker pattern flip and that concerns me.

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I dunno if this goes here or in the storm thread.... but I think here is better so it doesnt get lost... great post by Coastal

It's a very good post and is what I worried about when posting my pattern is getting better post. If the euro is correct, I'm going to look pretty foolish and already have plenty fo weenies on the CWG site proclaiming that they think I'm wrong.

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It's a very good post and is what I worried about when posting my pattern is getting better post. If the euro is correct, I'm going to look pretty foolish and already have plenty fo weenies on the CWG site proclaiming that they think I'm wrong.

You should have a contest, you against the weenies. Make them post their predictions against yours, that will shut them up pretty quickly.

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The "low" this morning at BWI is only 50F. NWS is forecasting upper 60s this afternoon, and the real low temp of the day will probably come just before midnight. I think a +20F day is quite possible. Record highs though, seem well out of reach since in 2002, the big 3 airports were all 75-77F.

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