Isopycnic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The low seems to be west of the apps and is currently farther NW than I remember where it should be. Also it is moving moving ENE. Tell me I'm wrong but this seems more and more like a non event for central Nc. towel thrown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I know everyone has already seen this, but I couldn't have drawn a better map myself as this was my thinking all along. (Map credit goes to DT/Wxrisk) There is still time for things to change, but with each passing hour it looks more and more like this will be close to verifying. I really feel bad for everyone back home in NC despite what some may think. I know my "conservative" attitude leading up to today was not taken well by some. Even though I am not there to experience it I was really hoping to see some pictures from friends and family back home at some point this Winter enjoying some snow. Looks like we will have to wait a little longer for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 lol did you see what Matthew East just posted? Again this happens everytime. When it's go time people cliff dive going, "look at the radar it's going to miss us". The thing is as the vort energy comes in it's going to start developing moisture...where exactly is anyone's guess...there will be some winners and losers with banding but to act like this thing is a widespread bust right now is foolish. If by 7 PM the radar looks the same then yes. However as I posted earlier I'll bet 80% of the people who are so worried will be jumping for joy by then. You might be right but i'm still not seeing anything that says there will be accumulating snow outside of the mountains sadly. Luckily for me, I don't have to worry about cliff diving or jumping for joy as I knew it was going to be rain here the whole time. Whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 You might be right but i'm still not seeing anything that says there will be accumulating snow outside of the mountains sadly. Luckily for me, I don't have to worry about cliff diving or jumping for joy as I knew it was going to be rain here the whole time. Whew. Well according to one person in Wilkesboro snow is starting. That is OUTSIDE of the mountains so his pictures should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well according to one person in Wilkesboro snow is starting. That is OUTSIDE of the mountains Just barely. so his pictures should be interesting. Again, just barely. That'll really have to be some extra-special snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Just barely. Again, just barely. That'll really have to be some extra-special snow. Yea a little underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I know everyone has already seen this, but I couldn't have drawn a better map myself as this was my thinking all along. (Map credit goes to DT/Wxrisk) There is still time for things to change, but with each passing hour it looks more and more like this will be close to verifying. I really feel bad for everyone back home in NC despite what some may think. I know my "conservative" attitude leading up to today was not taken well by some. Even though I am not there to experience it I was really hoping to see some pictures from friends and family back home at some point this Winter enjoying some snow. Looks like we will have to wait a little longer for that. I'm not going to say he's wrong, but he made that at 10:30 AM Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well according to one person in Wilkesboro snow is starting. That is OUTSIDE of the mountains so his pictures should be interesting. And Triadwx was reporting some snow hours ago in northern Davidson County. Then again, I think he had some bizarre OBS sightings last year, so I don't know whether he may be a Bethesda clone. I tend to doubt his report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Hey CR...They were telling the naysayers they were wrong earlier. I think it reaches a point where they just say forget it, it's useless. It's like banging your head against a wall. We both know this was not going to be a big event for us. It was a storm that we could see some flakes flying and possibly an inch or two. I believe there's still time for this to happen. We weren't supposed to get anything from the slp anyway. Our snow is coming from the energy coming from the north so I think we should wait and see what happens later in the day. If I see some flakes flying later then I'll be happy because that's what my expectations where to begin w/. They were, but how many times can you repeat yourself? Yeah, that's true. But I think there's also a component that there's not a lot of upside to this thing either. But it's all good. Just getting to see a few flakes is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm not going to say he's wrong, but he made that at 10:30 AM Saturday morning. No, he drew it today, he is know for making minor mistakes from time to time. lol If I could have drawn one yesterday at 10:30am it would have looked exactly like that and I wouldn't have changed a thing even with the NWS jumping on board overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 No, he drew it today, he is know for making minor mistakes from time to time. lol If I could have drawn one yesterday at 10:30am it would have looked exactly like that and I wouldn't have changed a thing even with the NWS jumping on board overnight. DT might bust on his bust map...seriously. That guy gives up too easily on his snow hole over his house in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 DT might bust on his bust map...seriously. That guy gives up too easily on his snow hole over his house in VA. Remember when he "screwed the pooch" with the Christmas/Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010? Huge bust for him. He gives up way, way too easily. I don't think he's as great of a forecaster as some seem to give him credit for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I was hoping his Map would say something, "THIS IS MY FINAL CALL YOU SLOPE HEAD...SERIOUSLY MY FINAL CALL"...then tomorrow there would be his "final final call" map. DT might bust on his bust map...seriously. That guy gives up too easily on his snow hole over his house in VA. Remember when he "screwed the pooch" with the Christmas/Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010? Huge bust for him. He gives up way, way too easily. I don't think he's as great of a forecaster as some seem to give him credit for. DT just being DT he does this with pretty much every storm. Almost always ends up being wrong in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I don't see how anyone forecasts snow in this area. There are just too many factors that make it difficult to get it right. I have seen it bust time and time again both ways, either too high or too low. You'd think after the huge miss with the record snow in Jan 2000 that we'd learn by now that you never really know what is going to happen around here with regards to snow. But more often we end up getting a lot less than was forecasted instead of more. You can't depend on the models, either. It's all just a big crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I don't see how anyone forecasts snow in this area. There are just too many factors that make it difficult to get it right. I have seen it bust time and time again both ways, either too high or too low. You'd think after the huge miss with the record snow in Jan 2000 that we'd learn by now that you never really know what is going to happen around here with regards to snow. But more often we end up getting a lot less than was forecasted instead of more. You can't depend on the models, either. It's all just a big crapshoot. Bring on the flowers, bring on the bees. Bring on the pants, that end at your knees. Everyone knows, snow is based on luck. If you believe the forecast, you'll end up saying.....damn. NO SNOW FOR YOU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I asked Siri if it's going to snow today. She said no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'd swear snow was covering my grass and starting to stick to my driveway/sidewalk if that was possible.....and it's all been light snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'd swear snow was covering my grass and starting to stick to my driveway/sidewalk if that was possible.....and it's all been light snow so far. Yeah, same here. I've been shocked as I really didn't expect light snow to stick with temperatures at/above freezing. I think the sleet earlier helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's looking pretty grim for snow here in Chapel Hill. The last real band has moved north. The deformation zone clearly going to set up, as we suspected all along, along the NC/VA border. So maybe some flurries as the tail of the precip comes through with the ULL later tonight, but otherwise, just cold and wet. Still, at least we *had* a storm threat this winter. I thought we might go the whole winter without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well, I think we can dismiss the "surfaces will be too warm for any significant snow accumulation in the Piedmont" argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well, I think we can dismiss the "surfaces will be too warm for any significant snow accumulation in the Piedmont" argument. I'd rather wait until someone in the piedmont gets something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 33.1f/31.8dp light snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's looking pretty grim for snow here in Chapel Hill. The last real band has moved north. The deformation zone clearly going to set up, as we suspected all along, along the NC/VA border. So maybe some flurries as the tail of the precip comes through with the ULL later tonight, but otherwise, just cold and wet. Still, at least we *had* a storm threat this winter. I thought we might go the whole winter without one. So, you 're saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'd rather wait until someone in the piedmont gets something significant. The precip going north has mostly has killed the chances for that, but it has had nothing to do with the ground being warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This doesn't make sense... do we get several shots of rain later this week, or just rain on Friday? from RAH this evening... AFD says... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... A GOOD SW FLOW IS FAVORED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE UNDER UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFFSHORE. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 45-50 RANGE. HIGHS ARE FAVORED IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. THEN DRIER AND COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. While point forecast says... Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'd rather wait until someone in the piedmont gets something significant. Your backyard isn't the entire Piedmont. I used the word "significant" because I've seen it thrown around by the naysayers a time or two. It provides the perfect amount of non-commitment and vagueness. After this disaster of a winter, the snow I already have on the ground today is significant. I can now welcome the spring in peace and with a settled mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well, I think we can dismiss the "surfaces will be too warm for any significant snow accumulation in the Piedmont" argument. I'd rather wait until someone in the piedmont gets something significant. The precip going north has mostly has killed the chances for that, but it has had nothing to do with the ground being warm. You guys are claiming victory based on your assuming something that was never said. Yesterday most were talking about piedmont accumulations of 2-6 inches. Even WRAL posted a graphical forecast of widespread accumulations of 3-6. The comments made about the warm ground not supporting accumulations of that amount with the present storm seem to be verifying. I was one of the first to say that snow rate trumps warm ground because I have seen it many times over the years. I also said that in this storm I didn't expect to see sufficient snow rates to overcome 50 degree soil temps. So far in the piedmont I haven't seen anything approaching the amounts being talked about yesterday. Something could still happen later but for now I'm comfortable with everything I've said about this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Your backyard isn't the entire Piedmont. I used the word "significant" because I've seen it thrown around by the naysayers a time or two. It provides the perfect amount of non-commitment and vagueness. After this disaster of a winter, the snow I already have on the ground today is significant. I can now welcome the spring in peace and with a settled mind. Significant isn't a powered donut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 You guys are claiming victory based on your assuming something that was never said. Yesterday most were talking about piedmont accumulations of 2-6 inches. Even WRAL posted a graphical forecast of widespread accumulations of 3-6. The comments made about the warm ground not supporting accumulations of that amount with the present storm seem to be verifying. I was one of the first to say that snow rate trumps warm ground because I have seen it many times over the years. I also said that in this storm I didn't expect to see sufficient snow rates to overcome 50 degree soil temps. So far in the piedmont I haven't seen anything approaching the amounts being talked about yesterday. Something could still happen later but for now I'm comfortable with everything I've said about this event. Whoa there, buddy. I didn't publish a call map or make a prediction. A few others were deliriously talking about three inches while others predicted a cold rain or no accumulation. (I read no reputable sources calling for half a foot in GSO.) Those of us who kept our mouths closed and minds open are happy with what we've got so far today. I'm taking today and calling it a win for my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Significant isn't a powered donut. It is when you're hungry (for snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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