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February Banter Thread


Gastonwxman

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I still can't believe the huge southern shift in the modeled heavier snow. I'm still doubtful that many pickup a thumping in NC but it seems pretty obvious now that the northern counties will get good lick. If this ends up thumping areas in central NC I'll eat my hat. I said earlier this week I could'nt see how this storm could trend better for NC due to lack of cold air. Well that's still a concern for me regardless of what the models are spitting out verbatim. I think this system has a pretty high bust potential wrt modeled snowfall but also a pretty high potential to perform very well for many in NC. I'm still leaning towards cliff jumpers tomorrow but my confidence has taken a huge hit.

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It sure has been interesting following the forecasts for this storm. This time last night, NWS said I was supposed to already be having showers and t-showers, rain heavy at times and 1/2-3/4", and a similar forecast for Sunday. Now, 24 hours later, it says- Rain likely, mainly after 3am, and less than 1/10" expected. I wasn't, and still am not expecting much in the frozen dept., but since we're already down 50% in rainfall for the year, I was looking forward to an extended rain event. Guess I'll just have to see how tomorrow pans out, since tonight's once 100% chance of precip is still down in SC waffling around.

/rant off

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This storm and all it's changes are starting to make me hope for a "perfect storm" scenario off the coast of SC/NC.

These kind of posts need to stay in banter and out of the wx thread, thank you for posting it in here! In case some are wondering were their posts are going, pretty liberal with the deletes tonight. If it smells like crap probably is and we are canning it. Later...

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I still can't believe the huge southern shift in the modeled heavier snow. I'm still doubtful that many pickup a thumping in NC but it seems pretty obvious now that the northern counties will get good lick. If this ends up thumping areas in central NC I'll eat my hat. I said earlier this week I could'nt see how this storm could trend better for NC due to lack of cold air. Well that's still a concern for me regardless of what the models are spitting out verbatim. I think this system has a pretty high bust potential wrt modeled snowfall but also a pretty high potential to perform very well for many in NC. I'm still leaning towards cliff jumpers tomorrow but my confidence has taken a huge hit.

Kudos, Marietta, for admitting when you were wrong. Of course, nothing has verified yet, so you still may be proven correct. Who knows what surprises are in store for us North Carolinians tomorrow? We shall see...

(Of course, I'm rooting for that hat eating, because it would mean a white evening in my backyard!) :snowwindow:

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These kind of posts need to stay in banter and out of the wx thread, thank you for posting it in here! In case some are wondering were their posts are going, pretty liberal with the deletes tonight. If it smells like crap probably is and we are canning it. Later...

NP, I'm trying now. =P

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It seems like everytime I say out loud (or type) what I think is going to happen, the opposite happens. Therefore, I'm going to predict that we get NOTHING but a few flakes.

In all seriousness, it's so hard to believe they are possibly calling for snow tomorrow. I just took the trash out and it reminds me of the beach in the late spring outside. It feels so good out. My daughter and I went shopping today and when we got home, there seemed to be a ton of birds in peoples yards. Don't they usually do that before snow?

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Frank Straight should have a video coming out some time soon tonight for anyone concerned. Last night around 11:45 he was talking about the South trend and he thought ultimately it'd be North and how the models within 60 hrs should be more accurate (even the gfs) so.. it'll be interesting what he has to say now.

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I've got kind of an IMBY serious question to ask, that immkeeping out of the other thread that I hope someone with some real knowledge can answer.

I've GOT to be in Johnson City Monday night, coming from CLT.

From what I can tell, temps will warm enough Monday, that I-40/26 will be passable Monday afternoon. Am I right?

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I've got kind of an IMBY serious question to ask, that immkeeping out of the other thread that I hope someone with some real knowledge can answer.

I've GOT to be in Johnson City Monday night, coming from CLT.

From what I can tell, temps will warm enough Monday, that I-40/26 will be passable Monday afternoon. Am I right?

What are you driving?

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Yes, you re right, road issues should be a a min Monday afternoon evening, just too warm on the front and backside of this one to present sig travel hazards late day Monday. Watch out for areas with elevation and keep an eye on surface temps along the way which would be a sign if possible icing should they get at or below freezing.

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Let the cliff diving begin in VA. And TN. And KY.

NC looks to be the sweet spot.

No cliff diving here. Ukie, SREF, GFS, and to some extent the NAM still have NE TN in the picture - maybe more so than we were. We were on the southern extent of the precip shield earlier. Now, we are on the northern extent. Defnitley a southward trend. If it were to trend south again, we'd be out of it.

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Call THP ahead of time. Sam's Gap may be in bad shape if this continues south.

Yep. the mountains are a different world. Also a bad accident can shut the highway down for a good while and you end up driving after the sun goes down. I'd keep at least a 1/2 tank of gas in my car in case I ended up sitting.

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Kudos, Marietta, for admitting when you were wrong. Of course, nothing has verified yet, so you still may be proven correct. Who knows what surprises are in store for us North Carolinians tomorrow? We shall see...

(Of course, I'm rooting for that hat eating, because it would mean a white evening in my backyard!) :snowwindow:

Yep, i'm an honest guy and will admit defeat when I'm wrong. I busted pretty bad on the trending part and could have busted in totality lol. I hope I did because I'm pulling for the best outcome for you NC guys. If I was sitting in NC tonight I'd be pretty optimistic and rightfully do based off the models. The more of NC that gets it the better!

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No cliff diving here. Ukie, SREF, GFS, and to some extent the NAM still have NE TN in the picture - maybe more so than we were. We were on the southern extent of the precip shield earlier. Now, we are on the northern extent. Defnitley a southward trend. If it were to trend south again, we'd be out of it.

Is it because of the weak SLP?

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Yep. the mountains are a different world. Also a bad accident can shut the highway down for a good while and you end up driving after the sun goes down. I'd keep at least a 1/2 tank of gas in my car in case I ended up sitting.

Your right about that! Get up over 3000 feet and it doesn't matter how warm is has been the previous day. If the temp drops and snow hard the roads will turn white.

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Is it because of the weak SLP?

Less warm air will come up the valley. On the other hand, qpf will now be limited w/ some downsloping. It's definitely not a good tremd for middle and west TN. NE TN basically has a different rulebook for snowstorms. We really go as Richmond goes, sometimes DC. My concern now is qpf, not temps. Funny how the conversation has changed.

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Yep, i'm an honest guy and will admit defeat when I'm wrong. I busted pretty bad on the trending part and could have busted in totality lol. I hope I did because I'm pulling for the best outcome for you NC guys. If I was sitting in NC tonight I'd be pretty optimistic and rightfully do based off the models. The more of NC that gets it the better!

I was in here saying it was VA's storm last night. that's why I dont have a red tag. (: lol

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

127 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/

COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK

LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER ENERGY PROVIDING FOR SOME WINTER PRECIP

POTENTIAL THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH FA. ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...BUT TEMPS COOLING OFF ENOUGH TO

WARRANT POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR

CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW NORTHERN FA.

I hate this area. They have our forecast set to "31 and rain" people don't understand that the "31" temp will occur after the moisture is gone..

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I can't wait for you guys up north say in GSO or in Winston Salem to post pictures if you get accumulating snow fall. Especially for those who said there was NO WAY anyone OUTSIDE of the mountains would get ANY accumulating snows out of this. Just goes to show that anything can happen. Of course we may all get skunked on this one but looks like someone outside of the mountains is gonna get hammered.

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I can't wait for you guys up north say in GSO or in Winston Salem to post pictures if you get accumulating snow fall. Especially for those who said there was NO WAY anyone OUTSIDE of the mountains would get ANY accumulating snows out of this. Just goes to show that anything can happen. Of course we may all get skunked on this one but looks like someone outside of the mountains is gonna get hammered.

if it accumulates...im takin pics...cause i am a big :weenie:

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