Tullioz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I just think it's funny how different the opinions are. It's like this. There is the "Model World" and the "Real World" and the line between them is very fine. You see, in the real world common sense prevails; in the model world sometimes common sense takes a back seat. Fortunately for me there is a great distance between me and MBY which allows me to focus more on the real world and see things for what they really are. I will admit if I were back in NC I would be seeing things in a different light and staying up til all hours of the night waiting for the 0Z Euro and everyone's opinions. I say this as it is after 3am here, so maybe even now I am finding the lines between the real and model world a little blurred. Either way, the way I see it from here, no significant snow for anyone outside of the mountains in NC this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am loving how things seem to actually look more favorable as we close in to an event, however I am worried models will start going back to all rain. I don't really care if it accumulates on roads or grass, I would be just excited to see it fall from the sky! That looks to be a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 SREF Ensembles/mean on Bufkit that I have are showing a possible changeover to snow/ip for KCAE as a possibility if the moisture is available at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Brick, is this a cut n paste from another forum that you post on? He does post on Scout's Inside Carolina's forums as "Carolina Fever". CarolinaFever All-American 42486 posts this site Ignore this Member Send Private Message Nominate | Report Posted: Today 1:54 PM Snow for NC this Sunday Things really turned around yesterday afternoon, and now the closer we get to Sunday, the more and more snow the weather models bring to NC. The latest European model gave the northern half of NC 4-8 inches. From HKY to GSO to RDU to RWI. 2-4 is south of that southern foothills to near CLT to Southern Pines to Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow, the midatlantic forum really fell off the map after the Euro came out. Tells you just how much weight is given to that particular model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 He does post on Scout's Inside Carolina's forums as "Carolina Fever". CarolinaFever All-American 42486 posts this site Ignore this Member Send Private Message Nominate | Report Posted: Today 1:54 PM Snow for NC this Sunday Things really turned around yesterday afternoon, and now the closer we get to Sunday, the more and more snow the weather models bring to NC. The latest European model gave the northern half of NC 4-8 inches. From HKY to GSO to RDU to RWI. 2-4 is south of that southern foothills to near CLT to Southern Pines to Greenville. I guess I have stalkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess I have stalkers. Don't flatter yourself. Just painfully obvious that you're one and the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Don't flatter yourself. Just painfully obvious that you're one and the same. He also post elsewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 how much for my 10-digit grid coordinate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I have a question that definitely belongs in this thread. For the past couple days I have seem the HPC as well as GSP and other weather offices lean heavily on the GFS and at times just toss the other models. While this has been going on, the GFS 2 days ago was burying New England, then yesterday it was the DC area, and now it's WVA to Richmond. Meanwhile, the Euro has been constantly discounted by just about everyone and it has basically stuck to the same idea the entire time of a southern track and no phasing with the northern energy. I'm sure there's a reason, I certainly know less than the mets at these offices, and less than most people on these forums, but it's really confusing to me to see their most recent forecasts still heavily weighting the GFS and largely discounting the solutions of other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Some of you have a serious mancrush on Brick. Let it go. He says what 90% of AmericanWx lurkers are thinking. Every tragedy must have its Greek chorus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Blacksburg says what SNOW for my area... .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...RAIN. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is insane. Am I the only one that thinks it's not going to be any accumulating snow at ALL in NC this weekend? I'm reading the storm board and just all the little changes, and variables, details and it still looks like it's too warm to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is insane. Am I the only one that thinks it's not going to be any accumulating snow at ALL in NC this weekend? For Charlotte, unlikely. For north of I-40, quite possible. I wouldn't bet the farm it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The last I heard, the news was saying we were going to get lots of rain this weekend. I was confused when I went to the mall after work and people were hoarding winter boots and talking about how the news said they may need them this weekend. I wanted to tell them "Um, you need RAIN boots, not snow boots". What changed? I'm going to have to go back through this discussion and see what in the world is going on. They just showed a preview of the news for tonight and Lanie Pope said the piedmont may see winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Grandfather Mountain's Facebook Page just posted this with the picture below... "The milder weather is bringing the bears out of their winter dens more frequently than normal." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The last I heard, the news was saying we were going to get lots of rain this weekend. I was confused when I went to the mall after work and people were hoarding winter boots and talking about how the news said they may need them this weekend. I wanted to tell them "Um, you need RAIN boots, not snow boots". What changed? I'm going to have to go back through this discussion and see what in the world is going on. They just showed a preview of the news for tonight and Lanie Pope said the piedmont may see winter weather. Basically the 12z Euro painted the Triad with 4-8", craziness ensued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is insane. Am I the only one that thinks it's not going to be any accumulating snow at ALL in NC this weekend? I'm reading the storm board and just all the little changes, and variables, details and it still looks like it's too warm to snow. No, I'm not seeing it either. If I were in the top row of counties or so in NC I'd feel better about it but for the metro areas I don't see it other than some flurries or snow showers at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Basically the 12z Euro painted the Triad with 4-8", craziness ensued. Oh good grief. It's a good thing I don't have to go to the grocery store. They'll be insane tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Grandfather Mountain's Facebook Page just posted this with the picture below... "The milder weather is bringing the bears out of their winter dens more frequently than normal." That's awesome! Although, I now wonder if they're going to head towards more populated areas in search of food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Grandfather Mountain's Facebook Page just posted this with the picture below... "The milder weather is bringing the bears out of their winter dens more frequently than normal." I would bet brick's snow that he just took a shit in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Oh good grief. It's a good thing I don't have to go to the grocery store. They'll be insane tonight. I doubt normal people follow the euro. Now if your local met goes on TV and shows the Euro then you have an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I doubt normal people follow the euro. What does that say about people who do follow the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I doubt normal people follow the euro. Now if your local met goes on TV and shows the Euro then you have an issue. Well, the news started with "DOT employees may be getting overtime this weekend! Salt trucks are loaded up and ready to go!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What does that say about people who do follow the Euro? If you are insinuating that our behavior is normal all I can do is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What does that say about people who do follow the Euro? We are all crazy and are obsessed with snow (and weather in general)! Most of my friends think I'm crazy in regards to my enthusiasm for snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We are all crazy and are obsessed with snow (and weather in general)! Most of my friends think I'm crazy in regards to my enthusiasm for snow! They're right you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I have a question that definitely belongs in this thread. For the past couple days I have seem the HPC as well as GSP and other weather offices lean heavily on the GFS and at times just toss the other models. While this has been going on, the GFS 2 days ago was burying New England, then yesterday it was the DC area, and now it's WVA to Richmond. Meanwhile, the Euro has been constantly discounted by just about everyone and it has basically stuck to the same idea the entire time of a southern track and no phasing with the northern energy. I'm sure there's a reason, I certainly know less than the mets at these offices, and less than most people on these forums, but it's really confusing to me to see their most recent forecasts still heavily weighting the GFS and largely discounting the solutions of other models. I think the HPC is pretty balanced. They will throw out any model they feel is an outlier. Not sure what you mean about the Euro being discounted by everyone, as I'd say it's widely accepted as the best global model in the world. I do notice that there are folks (including mets) in the mid-atlantic threads that mainly go with a Euro/GFS blend (includes both the operational and ensemble runs), and tend to stay away from the UKMet and Canadian models....which doesn't make sense to me, and our current storm is a great example....the UKMet and Canadian have been south of the GFS the past couple of days, and it appears as if those 2 had the better idea compared to the GFS. Ultimately, I think you have to consider all the guidance, taking into account the bias of each model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the HPC is pretty balanced. They will throw out any model they feel is an outlier. Not sure what you mean about the Euro being discounted by everyone, as I'd say it's is widely accepted the best global model in the world. I do notice that there are folks (including mets) in the mid-atlantic threads that mainly go with a Euro/GFS blend (includes both the operational and ensemble runs), and tend to stay away from the UKMet and Canadian models....which doesn't make sense to me, and our current storm is a great example....the UKMet and Canadian have been south of the GFS the past couple of days, and it appears as if those 2 had the better idea compared to the GFS. Ultimately, I think you have to consider all the guidance, taking into account the bias of each model. One idea is a plan. Three ideas is paralysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 WXII12 has leaked the news. Oh my... Triad transportation crews say they have salt trucks ready to roll. Read more: http://www.wxii12.com/video/30486822/detail.html#ixzz1mgWKpX00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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