dsaur Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 (I'm responding to a post on the storm thread over here in the banter thread.) On the flip side, banal pessimism can also be annoying. (I'm not pointing at you, per se, beanskip.) I get tired of reading posts that only say, "Too bad, it's not going to snow," or "Epic fail about to occur," or "It's impossible for snow to occur because of..." I choose to be optimistic the entire time. It's just my personality, and I don't think there's anything wrong with that. Meteorology is still quite the inexact science. Granted, it's gotten a lot better with the advent of better technology and higher resolution computer models, yet there are still many unknowns. It's the the thrill of the unknown variables that make the chase that much more exciting, in my opinion. So, I continue to look for the potential in each model run that comes out. Sure, that potential for winter weather might be small, but as long as there is any glimmer of a chance from any model (take the CMC for the time being), I'll still hope for the best. I'll usually wind up with nothing for my troubles, but I'm fine with that. I think there are quite a few people on this board who enjoy tracking winter storms just as much as you do. And we each have our methods. Embrace the diversity. It's cool. +1. I guess everyone has their own way of dealing with loving winter weather and living in one of the worst places for it in the country I said in a post a while back that in 100 years they'll have much better models but still won't be able to be 100% with the weather. I'm guessing, of course, but my thinking is even if they come up with super computers that are better than a human mind, they still won't be able to calculate all of the "butterfly wing" effects that take place the world over, and affect the weather world wide. Forecasts will always have a chance for a bust. The best met will get some wrong, the biggest weenie will get some right. It will always be the best plan to go outside and look up when the time comes...that's the only way to be 100% sure. But even then, I've seen some things....... soccer ball snow flakes among them, lol. But what has me very scared now, is finding out Burger has the power to chase mets away! I've seen weenie power.. I've seen Brick fry men's minds. But Burger power, if it exists, is beyond frightening, lol. I'm glad I'm on the boy's good side....I hope Personally, I'm now a devote practitioner of Larry's Ice Cream Zen after this past two months. I find I'm happy with the normal course of the weather, but I'm getting fatter...as bad as this winter has been, I suppose I might have gone overboard with it! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Fool me once EURO shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. No dice, not falling for this again. Gotta move on. My therapist wold be outraged if he knew I was back here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 12z Euro Ensemble mean is much slower/further south than the 00z Euro ensemble mean. When compared with the 12z operational ECMWF it is slightly quicker and slightly further north. But I think it shows the Euro is not an outlier withing its own ensemble and the shift/trend could be real. Of course we need to see the trend continue in the next couple of cycles to get too excited. Fool me once EURO shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. Not going to fall for it!! This has got cool (not cold) rain written all over it. Gotta move on. My therapist would be furious if he knew I went back into the storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 They are definitely comparing each others forecast before they send them out, because the grids have to agree somewhere in the time between forecasting periods. McAvoy is a great forecaster. I got the opportunity to learn some of the tools of the trade from him in the Summer of 2010 when I was interning back at the GSP office. Really nice guy who is also a UNCA alum. Thanks for taking time to post Phil. UNCA has a great & growing met alumni base. Great write up last night on the main board. The mnt crew still misses you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Check out what Allan Huffman has to say about this weekend he just updated at 2:30 http://m.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/update-on-weekend-storm-system?CID=examiner_alerts_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Check out what Allan Huffman has to say about this weekend he just updated at 2:30 http://m.examiner.co..._alerts_article RaleighWx is a far better met than him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 RaleighWx is a far better met than him... This made me laugh out loud. NAM is going sloooooowwwwwwww. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 RaleighWx is a far better met than him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 RaleighWx is a far better met than him... I'm not saying who is better than who I just said take a look at what Allan had to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not saying who is better than who I just said take a look at what Allan had to say. I am He and thanks for reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not saying who is better than who I just said take a look at what Allan had to say. Just to let you in on the joke, they are the same people...so he gave us his update before he had his update on his website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not saying who is better than who I just said take a look at what Allan had to say. ...Mr. Bob is messing w/ ya. Allan is RaleighWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not saying who is better than who I just said take a look at what Allan had to say. Now that made me laugh out loud... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I am He and thanks for reading. That is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not saying who is better than who I just said take a look at what Allan had to say. I am He and thanks for reading. ...Mr. Bob is messing w/ ya. Allan is RaleighWx. Well this certainly lightened the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Someone go to NCEP and tell them to give the NAM a kick start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I am He and thanks for reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I second that motion! RaleighWx could school him! LOL! HAHAHAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Brothers are great !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Brothers are great !! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nice to see the effect my reverse jinx had on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well this certainly lightened the mood. I moved this stuff out of the discussion thread. it's too good to delete.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Harvey Dent...I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well this certainly lightened the mood. Not for me. I don't like eiher one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I was really ready to give up on anything this weekend, and then the latest model runs start trending better for us. Hope they keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I was really ready to give up on anything this weekend, and then the latest model runs start trending better for us. Hope they keep it up! Keep me posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Keep me posted... :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z Euro says not to fast! It's throwing a little bit of hope to us snow weenies..... come on baby just 50-75 more to the south!!!!! you got that - just saw the latest map in the model thread. has some snow just a county away lol. a shift like that would add interest to mby haha. just when i thought winter was over (i am still not convinced, but all hope isnt yet lost to salvage this winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I was really ready to give up on anything this weekend, and then the latest model runs start trending better for us. Hope they keep it up! Are the lights officially back on? Brick for WOTY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Are the lights officially back on? Brick for WOTY!! We need to brick o' meter. Just a giant picture of his head next to a thermostat measuring the excitement of a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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