Busick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Did someone stay up all night long drinking energy drinks, waiting for the next model to come out showing hope while they was looking at old pictures from 93,00,10 and finally fell asleep and hit the Storm mode button??? Note: I am talking about the Southeast not further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 (I'm responding to a post on the storm thread over here in the banter thread.) On the flip side, banal pessimism can also be annoying. (I'm not pointing at you, per se, beanskip.) I get tired of reading posts that only say, "Too bad, it's not going to snow," or "Epic fail about to occur," or "It's impossible for snow to occur because of..." I choose to be optimistic the entire time. It's just my personality, and I don't think there's anything wrong with that. Meteorology is still quite the inexact science. Granted, it's gotten a lot better with the advent of better technology and higher resolution computer models, yet there are still many unknowns. It's the the thrill of the unknown variables that make the chase that much more exciting, in my opinion. So, I continue to look for the potential in each model run that comes out. Sure, that potential for winter weather might be small, but as long as there is any glimmer of a chance from any model (take the CMC for the time being), I'll still hope for the best. I'll usually wind up with nothing for my troubles, but I'm fine with that. I think there are quite a few people on this board who enjoy tracking winter storms just as much as you do. And we each have our methods. Embrace the diversity. It's cool. I pretty much agree although I may be one of the posters you are referring to. You get a feel for someones online persona over time. There can be someone who is overly optimistic and that imo from a scientific perspective is pretty unscientific. I don't mind someone being optimistic early on but when you get down to the wire and you have say one model that is close but is not there and everything else points to a big no but the person still hangs onto hope, it's pretty annoying. imo it's just as annoying as someone who gives up before they should. There are a few posters who I won't call out(Burger you're a good example ) who are a happy medium and those are the guys I enjoy reading and their optimism. Sometimes pessimism is just facing reality, it's not that persons fault if they are able to put aside their inner weenie sooner than another poster. If they end up being right what is wrong with a realistic/pessimistic poster? I know I can get a tad carried away with the pessimism but it has served me well for the most part. I also love a good storm and will be one of the first to call it like I see it if we are in store for a thumping. I think the terrible winter this year has just painted me and others as overly pessimistic when it's just reality 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Did I remember to say that this winter sucks? Stop beating around the bush and sugar coating it skip, tell us how you feel, we're listening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I pretty much agree although I may be one of the posters you are referring to. You get a feel for someones online persona over time. There can be someone who is overly optimistic and that imo from a scientific perspective is pretty unscientific. I don't mind someone being optimistic early on but when you get down to the wire and you have say one model that is close but is not there and everything else points to a big no but the person still hangs onto hope, it's pretty annoying. imo it's just as annoying as someone who gives up before they should. There are a few posters who I won't call out(Burger you're a good example ) who are a happy medium and those are the guys I enjoy reading and their optimism. Sometimes pessimism is just facing reality, it's not that persons fault if they are able to put aside their inner weenie sooner than another poster. If they end up being right what is wrong with a realistic/pessimistic poster? I know I can get a tad carried away with the pessimism but it has served me well for the most part. I also love a good storm and will be one of the first to call it like I see it if we are in store for a thumping. I think the terrible winter this year has just painted me and others as overly pessimistic when it's just reality 95% of the time. I would have to agree with you, Marietta. Being moderate, while keeping it scientific, about everything is the best way to go. Now as for you, I wouldn't call you overly pessimistic but rather a Professional Cliff Diver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTriadwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM stays consistent, 1005 SLP off ILM. To bad it's on it's own. Doesn't mean it can't be right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would have to agree with you, Marietta. Being moderate, while keeping it scientific, about everything is the best way to go. Now as for you, I wouldn't call you overly pessimistic but rather a Professional Cliff Diver. lol, always perfecting the art. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope you guys are kidding. A major snowstorm in Northern NC won't happen with this event. I agree with beanskip that the optimism on this board sometimes borders on insanity. The likelihood every major model is horribly wrong at this time scale is pretty low. As a met, I thought I was doing folks a favor by offering insight into why this one probably won't work out. Apparently, that's not popular with everyone. I'm not going to say its likely to happen when it's not though. So carry on questioning those with more experience and knowledge on the subject. Brier, Did you ever see my post saying that it appears that the DGEX is, indeed, an extension of the 78 hour NAM and not the 78 hour GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well the forecast for today surely was a bust no rain for me not even any coming my way. Wonder what this means for this weekends storms? Perhaps things could change the models were showing me getting 1/4 -1/2 of rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well the forecast for today surely was a bust no rain for me not even any coming my way. Wonder what this means for this weekends storms? Perhaps things could change the models were showing me getting 1/4 -1/2 of rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wrt anything substantial/noteworthy for 90+% of the SE forum, it's over. If you don't live in the mountains and think you have a shot at anything substantial you probably need some therapy. true. not only that, it is doubtful that most of us will get anything this winter. the end of winter is in sight, nothing on the models of note. not only that, but anything that was modeled never panned out. thats just the type of winter its been and i see nothing to indicate any change before our snow period ends in mid march. bring on spring and put us out of our misery. the optimism is a broken record, just like the models showing winter wx over a week out in the see. its time to throw in the towel and let the lady sing. i say good riddance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That should pretty much close out the storm thread then, unless it merges with the severe thread. We could all stay tuned for the wraparound wishcast, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I pretty much agree although I may be one of the posters you are referring to. You get a feel for someones online persona over time. There can be someone who is overly optimistic and that imo from a scientific perspective is pretty unscientific. I don't mind someone being optimistic early on but when you get down to the wire and you have say one model that is close but is not there and everything else points to a big no but the person still hangs onto hope, it's pretty annoying. imo it's just as annoying as someone who gives up before they should. There are a few posters who I won't call out(Burger you're a good example ) who are a happy medium and those are the guys I enjoy reading and their optimism. Sometimes pessimism is just facing reality, it's not that persons fault if they are able to put aside their inner weenie sooner than another poster. If they end up being right what is wrong with a realistic/pessimistic poster? I know I can get a tad carried away with the pessimism but it has served me well for the most part. I also love a good storm and will be one of the first to call it like I see it if we are in store for a thumping. I think the terrible winter this year has just painted me and others as overly pessimistic when it's just reality 95% of the time. No, I wasn't really referring to any one person. I tend to be more aggravated by the "Doom and Gloom" posters. Beanskip (as he has already posted), yourself (as you stated above), and others tend to be more aggravated by the "Singing in the Rain" posters. It's just who we are. And, this board takes all kinds. Thus, we are each free to have our own opinions and give more credence to the individual posters whose style or knowledge we happen to like or admire more. I like to think that the few comments I post on this site are level-headed and reasonable, and I hope that has come across in my careful choice of words over the past year. You are correct in your remarks concerning the online persona that we all develop: It's there whether we want it to be or not. Thus, I try to carefully monitor my words and attempt to screen them before hitting that submit button. I'm just happy to have the chance to read the comments of all the educated mets as well as the less-meteorologically-educated-but-nonetheless-entertaining posters. Kudos to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Burn up that bandwidth burger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Queen Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As you all know, I do little posting, but more reading. I do have a few questions, why does every possible storm look good 7 to 10 days away, but as it gets closer it loses steam or key ingredients? Why does it seem to rarely gain strength or cold air for snow events. It just seems like models will flip and give us bad news often, but rarely do they flip with good news. Yes, I am keeping a little bit of hope for this weekend storm, but by reading your posts doesn't look good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Burn up that bandwidth burger! People don't realize I got a straight connection on a T3 line. Even with all the bandwith we use I still get constant speeds of 100mb down and that's when testing with servers out west. That's why I can post so fast! Plus since my job is to be on facebook I can always claim I'm just researching online communities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As you all know, I do little posting, but more reading. I do have a few questions, why does every possible storm look good 7 to 10 days away, but as it gets closer it loses steam or key ingredients? Why does it seem to rarely gain strength or cold air for snow events. It just seems like models will flip and give us bad news often, but rarely do they flip with good news. Yes, I am keeping a little bit of hope for this weekend storm, but by reading your posts doesn't look good at all. A lot of it has to do with models and their resolution. Think of it like looking at a house from far away. When looking at it you may not notice termite damage or other issues you can only see on a close up inspection. The models are like that, from far away they just see very large scale features, so to simplify it, it sees cold and moisture thus it might equal a big snow. However when it gets close to inspect it sees something to stop the cold or to stop the moisture. Hope my convoluted mess helps explain a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro shift is very interesting. One more shift like that at 00z we may have something Dadgum! I was ready to give up on this thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 And now the Euro brings me right back. This is crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Of course now the 12z euro makes me look even worse now for my comment lol! I hope I am wrong and I agree that one more euro shift like that and the RDU area could be looking interesting. I would LOVE to be proven wrong here! HAH! Let's stick with the reverse physcology, where a little negativity might do us some good :-) I do agree with you though, the odds are we won't see snow in central NC, but there is a small chance we can get a 1-2" backside event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Dadgum! I was ready to give up on this thing! Don't let one run of the Euro stop you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Glad I didn't toss the towel. Put me down for another 50 mile shift to the south and I'm good with it. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You guys are great down here...really appreciate the objective analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You guys are great down here...really appreciate the objective analysis! I told you Richmond would be in the sweet spot :-) I am usually in Richmond quite a bit, but Monday is a holiday so I won't be there, I would have gone up Sunday to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Burger, I'll 2nd your message. As for sticking around and putting up with us. We know us can be out of control. Heck I ran off a met and was very rude last year and I still feel bad for it. I think the thing is that as amateurs we look at less as science and more as a sport. We hope against hope we can score 8 points with 10 seconds left in the basketball game by fouling. Meanwhile the coaches and players no better. While I always try to stay optimistic I literally don't believe 100% we'll get what I'm hoping for. Much like my comments on the NAM earlier were more of just a "check out what the NAM shows...probably will not happen". However it could have been worded better. Either way I don't think anyone took much offense and hopefully you stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 99% chance this won't happen, but here is the best member....Avert your eyes unless you can handle the disappointment on Sunday. At least that is showing something more than rain, which has been the case up until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z Euro says not to fast! It's throwing a little bit of hope to us snow weenies..... come on baby just 50-75 more to the south!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Queen Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks Burger, that does make sense....and just after I sent that post, we get a little more hope....we shall see. Just frustrating, to always feel like you are going backwards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks Burger, that does make sense....and just after I sent that post, we get a little more hope....we shall see. Just frustrating, to always feel like you are going backwards! The thing with this system is that there are so many players on the field. They are like puzzle pieces that can all interlock on all sides. Each arrangement creates a different picture. Right now we are seeing the models arrange them in almost every way possible. You may not have been around for our Christmas storm last year but it was similar. We were relying on energy "phasing" (combining) but it had to phase at just the right time to lock in our storm. In fact during much of it the models were showing areas of 8 - 12 inches for my back yard. Of course I ended up with 3 inches which was still good but we took steps backwards from the "perfect" solution for my backyard. The puzzle pieces just didn't quite fit for me but worked out much better for others. Same thing on this storm...all we can hope for is that the pieces make a picture we like looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z Euro says not to fast! It's throwing a little bit of hope to us snow weenies..... come on baby just 50-75 more to the south!!!!! lol I know right. Jeez can't we get that miracle we're hoping for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks to me almost all models are nailing the phase and track of this thing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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