Dunkman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Surprised by all the cliff jumping in the model thread from the 18z NAM. I mean, it's the 18z NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Surprised by all the cliff jumping in the model thread from the 18z NAM. I mean, it's the 18z NAM.... Yea but you want the 18z NAM to atleast give you some hints of something. It all goes to crap around hour 60 or so on the NAM. The problem right now and someone mentioned earlier is just the over all lack of cold air. I won't tag it dead until probably 00z tomorrow's runs but I'm certainly loosing some interest in it. We'll just have to see. If the GFS with all still has this same solution after 12z it's pretty much dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 See number 8 below. But that's what makes it so fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Oh well, I need to get a new hobby, amazing how much my productivity goes in the crapper during weeks when we have a storm to track. Tell me about it, I have about 4 projects at work and done NADA today lol.. See number 8 below. Since this weekends possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread. 1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns. 2. Models that do not agree are outliers. 3. A model that shows a good hit can not, by definition, be an outlier. 4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset. 5. The words, "storm dynamics will generate it's own cold air" means we are screwed but would never admit it. 6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4. 7. Analogs will be posted and previous events mentioned, that have no relationship to the current storm. Examples, March 1960, 1993. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. 9. Many posts will appear that start with, "I can't understand why it is not......" Others will contain cuss words combined with the term "dry slot". 10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1. ADDENDUM: Brick will be happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad. And that is just the first 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 See number 8 below. Is your Alzheimers acting up again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like it's not going to be cold enough this weekend for snow. It's just going to be miserable with temps in the 40s Sunday and rain. And the models continue to be all over the place. No concensus at all. A lot of things have to happen for there to be snow this weekend in my area. The models can't seem to agree on anything. There might be a chance, but I don't think it's going to happen. Sounds like the GFS is all over the place with this weekend's storm. Every run is different. Sounds like the Canadian model is our only hope. We have to hope the Canadian is right and th eother models come around. All the other models right now are all rain or just a few flakes at the end. I hope this is another case where the models show something 10 days out, loses it, and then shows it again a couple days before it hits. You never really know what you will get around this area of NC when it comes to snow. That's both good and bad. Sometimes we get a surprise, and sometimes we get nothing. The models very rarely get it completely right. That's why forecasting snow in central NC is probably harder than anywhere else in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Is your Alzheimers acting up again? ??? 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Over 30,000 views in a day or two in the storm "threat" thread. That should show how god awful the winter has been right there. It's not gonna happen, it's literally entertainment at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Over 30,000 views in a day or two in the storm "threat" thread. That should show how god awful the winter has been right there. It's not gonna happen, it's literally entertainment at this point. Yep. All we have left is a good cold shot near the end of the month. A storm will come in as that cold air is leaving and that will be it except for a late hard freeze to screw up the plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 ??? 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. I was making fun of the fact that you posted twice that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Is your Alzheimers acting up again? It certainly appears that way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I will be heading to W MD for the weekend if the 18z GFS has half a clue what is going on, which I doubt. Family there, what better time to visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I was making fun of the fact that you posted twice that's all. Well then, you might be right. I never even noticed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It certainly appears that way lol. You're only 12 miles away and I'm not to old to find you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think there's one thing we all can take away from this winter, is to expect the unexpected. Charlotte is about to break a 150 year old record for no snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You're only 12 miles away and I'm not to old to find you. I thought you lived in Gastonia and posted singles ads?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I thought you lived in Gastonia and posted singles ads?? Yeah jburns we have you all figured out... I'm 99.9% sure this is you. http://www.myspace.com/457524002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I will be heading to W MD for the weekend if the 18z GFS has half a clue what is going on, which I doubt. Family there, what better time to visit. You have to figure someone's going to cave tonight, whether it's the Euro/CMC or GFS/UK....I would love to see the 50-50 low start getting modeled stronger and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Clean out your inbox Burger... WTF, be at-least a little bit productive today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You have to figure someone's going to cave tonight, whether it's the Euro/CMC or GFS/UK or the SE Crew....I would love to see the 50-50 low start getting modeled stronger and stronger. I fixed that for ya, there Buddy. Geeezzzz I'm jumping after tonight. JS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah jburns we have you all figured out... I'm 99.9% sure this is you. http://www.myspace.com/457524002 MySpace? MySpace??? It's still there? That is so 05. I thought you young guys were cool. This is so disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I thought you lived in Gastonia and posted singles ads?? LOL Yeah I forgot. I better go check my messages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Since this weekends possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread. 1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns. 2. Models that do not agree are outliers. 3. A model that shows a good hit can not, by definition, be an outlier. 4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset. 5. The words, "storm dynamics will generate it's own cold air" means we are screwed but would never admit it. 6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4. 7. Analogs will be posted and previous events mentioned, that have no relationship to the current storm. Examples, March 1960, 1993. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. 9. Many posts will appear that start with, "I can't understand why it is not......" Others will contain cuss words combined with the term "dry slot". 10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1. ADDENDUM: Brick will be happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad. And that is just the first 24 hours. Watcha think jburns? It's not 360 hr GFS but looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Clean out your inbox Burger... WTF, be at-least a little bit productive today Should be good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Watcha think jburns? It's not 360 hr GFS but looks good. NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Anyone ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 All HO scale in Gasotnia I see, thought so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 2012 END OF THE WORLD: GFS DESTROYS EURO @ DAY 3. I don't need no stinkin' mayan calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro has not spoken yet at 0z. GFS could still get trumped. At least I hope. But we are running low on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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