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February Banter Thread


Gastonwxman

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NCEP needs to just stop running the GFS. A waste of time and energy.

The GFS is not a bad model. When you watch every last detail four times a day you will see swings. The verification scores on the GFS make it one of the top models available. It is a work in progress and it will get better as the years go on. So I hope you are kidding about this, as the only way to improve is to continue to refine the model. I couldn't disagree with you more about the GFS, in a high chaos environment like we see with this upcoming system it's really amazing that the model performs as well as it does. Truly a magnificent feat if you really think about what the model can do predicting the weather days out.

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I will go on record saying two things.

1. I don't believe this snowstorm will provide a big snow to anyone in the southeast (I hope I eat crow on this one). But secondly, and more importantly..........

2. Many big snowstorms for our part of the world were horribly predicted by the GFS (and other models), even up to 2-3 days in advance of the system.

In a nutshell, I'd love to be very very wrong on this one.

I'd agree and disagree with this. I agree that sometimes the models at first do not show a hit but 2 days before they swap and show a hit. But in my recollection it's because of one standout factor that changes....mostly a track, OR a strength of a high, OR, CAD strength, etc. For this one there seems to be so MANY things that need to change significantly to be a hit. There's no phase, or no cut off low, there's no 50/50 low anymore, there's a High in the wrong place, etc.

I've never seen a storm go from completely rain 50 degrees to sub 32 and snow. The models aren't THAT bad IMO.

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There's not really anything wrong with the GFS that isn't wrong in other models, each model has it's own biases.

And remember, the models AREN'T the gospel, they're merely tools to help in forecasting. Read the HPC disco and you'll quickly discover how they blend models together to come up with a forecast. http://www.daculaweather.com/hpc_disco.php

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I'm reposting this here because I think it is getting lost in the very busy 2/18-19 thread:

I just compared the 6Z DGEX with the 0Z/6Z NAM and the 0Z/6Z GFS at 500 mb. The 90 hour 6Z DGEX has NW to WNW 500 mb flow into the NE US, which looks a whole lot more like the 78/84 hour NAM maps than the 78/84 GFS maps, which have more of a WSW to SW flow into the NE US. I believe that this is pretty good evidence that the DGEX is, indeed, handed off the 78 hour NAM solution as opposed to the 78 hour GFS solution:

DGEX link: http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

Opinions?

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Funny watching people pull their hair out in the model thread. I'll just sit back and watch the chaos. Where's my beer?

I'm baffled by the whole thing. Post after post on different models showing the same thing....rain. Keep hope alive I guess. I'm just ready to start hearing about the pattern later on down the road; end of February. That's my last hope, then bring on beach weather.

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Funny watching people pull their hair out in the model thread. I'll just sit back and watch the chaos. Where's my beer?

lol so true. esp since we all should realize how unreliable they are in the mid and longer range this year. i doubt feb 29 verify as super cold. that puts us in march. at least we are getting to the end of the line for this miserable winter. honestly i have about given up. i was optimistic for a while, but after watching how the models, patterns, etc have played out so far i just dont see anything on the horizon for the se before mid march. as far as i am concerned, while lately there have a few interesting runs here and there, there has really be nothing this winter to track that looks really good, with the cold air already in place before a storm moves in. if monday night didnt do it then the rest of the winter is looking about as boring

i can see optimism and holding out hope earlier in the season but when the models show rain for most with no source of cold air its time to cut the losses

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Never like it when we're depending on cold to catch the moisture... never works out, at least nothing memorable has worked out in these situations to me. We just have to get the cold air established, and then have a system over run it.

Looks like Carvers Gap called this one 3 days ago or so, saying it was gonna head inland. Few people called him a wishcaster and said it wasnt possible with the way the 50/50 was modeled, as if that was set in stone. Looks like the pattern is gonna hold for at least one more storm. Well, do we still have time? I think so... I think/hope we get a sneaky system sometime in here early March, but im not going to hold my breath on that the way this winter has gone.

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I suppose I would be OK with this and take my chances...

Actually that is the closest thing I have seen to the 12z Euro today, not much difference between that and the euro @ 102, 850 line just west of that in W NC and surface low a little north, but not much. Same general ball park, 1000mb coming off just north of CHS. Just looked at the wundemaps and the Euro is very close to giving NE NC/SE VA a nice SN, thickness, 850's and surface all very close as the slp wraps up off HAT, banding evident back into NE NC. Oh well, I need to get a new hobby, amazing how much my productivity goes in the crapper during weeks when we have a storm to track. But who am I kidding, love the thrill of the chase, agony of defeat sucks though and this one wreaks of it. :(

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Actually that is the closest thing I have seen to the 12z Euro today, not much difference between that and the euro @ 102, 850 line just west of that in W NC and surface low a little north, but not much. Same general ball park, 1000mb coming off just north of CHS. Just looked at the wundemaps and the Euro is very close to giving NE NC/SE VA a nice SN, thickness, 850's and surface all very close as the slp wraps up off HAT, banding evident back into NE NC. Oh well, I need to get a new hobby, amazing how much my productivity goes in the crapper during weeks when we have a storm to track. But who am I kidding, love the thrill of the chase, agony of defeat sucks though and this one wreaks of it. :(

Tell me about it, I have about 4 projects at work and done NADA today lol...but yes the thrill is in the chase and the Holy Grail is found once in awhile. Hey on the bright side this is the only REAL non productive week I've had because of a storm!

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You never really know what you will get around this area of NC when it comes to snow. That's both good and bad. Sometimes we get a surprise, and sometimes we get nothing. The models very rarely get it completely right. That's why forecasting snow in central NC is probably harder than anywhere else in the country.

I call "bull" on that statement. I believe that's what you call confirmation bias. You only think that because you happen to live there. I'm sure mets across the country have issues with forecasting snow, no matter where they reside. Even if they know it's going to snow, there are always issues concerning the quantity of frozen precipitation that are difficult to nail down.

Weather forecasting remains an inexact science to this day, and there are some who are better at it than others, and my hat is off to them. Being a TV or radio met is a thankless job. No one remembers when you get one right, but they always bring up those times when you failed to forecast properly. I think sports referees have similar situations: the only time most people notice them is when they get something wrong. You've gotta have thick skin to survive in either profession.

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