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February Banter Thread


Gastonwxman

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I've found Greenville/Spartanburg NWS office to be pretty good IMO (not sure that's yours). They are pretty consistent in going with the prevailing model guidance consensus. But if there's some disagreement and they're not sure, they usually cover their basis like you said and mention a little of everything. That's what's solidifies my pessimism this weekend, because they have yet to even mention the possibility of piedmont snow for this weekend. If there were a healthy chance, I think they'd at least state it bears watching in their disco.

I agree GSP usually has excellent discussions. Unfortunately my office is RAX.

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The GFS and GEFS were attrocious up here with the last coastal. In reality all models grossly underestimated the strength of the southern s/w until the last day or two, with the NCEP models not doing well even inside of 24. The OP GFS and to an extent some of the GEFS members continually tried to develop a low under convective elements in NC in the D1-2 range, and prior to that about a thousand miles offshore.

The GGEM was by far the superior model, FWIW, for whatever reason in that particular event where we had interaction between a deeper southern s/w and a slower, broader northern system.

saw this in the MA thread. Thought it was interesting given the CMC run from earlier today.

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$%**%*#$%**#* GFS. There, now I'm better.

Acceptance is a wonderful thing, That said you have a few more stages to go.

I think you are on stage three.

1. SHOCK & DENIAL-

You will probably react to learning of the loss with numbed disbelief. You may deny the reality of the loss at some level, in order to avoid the pain. Shock provides emotional protection from being overwhelmed all at once. This may last for weeks.

2. PAIN & GUILT-

As the shock wears off, it is replaced with the suffering of unbelievable pain. Although excruciating and almost unbearable, it is important that you experience the pain fully, and not hide it, avoid it or escape from it with alcohol or drugs. Life feels chaotic and scary during this phase.

3. ANGER & BARGAINING-

Frustration gives way to anger, and you may lash out and lay unwarranted blame for the bad run on someone else. Please try to control this, as permanent damage to your online relationships may result. This is a time for the release of bottled up emotion. You may rail against fate, questioning "Why me?" You may also try to bargain in vain with the models for a way out of your despair ("I will never drink again if you just bring winter back")

4. "DEPRESSION", REFLECTION, LONELINESS-

Just when your friends may think you should be getting on with your life, a long period of sad reflection will likely overtake you. This is a normal stage of grief, so do not be "talked out of it" by well-meaning outsiders. Encouragement from others is not helpful to you during this stage of grieving.

During this time, you finally realize the true magnitude of your loss, and it depresses you. You may isolate yourself on purpose, reflect and focus on memories of the past. You may sense feelings of emptiness or despair.

5. THE UPWARD TURN-

As you start to adjust to life without winter, your life becomes a little calmer and more organized. Your physical symptoms lessen, and your "depression" begins to lift slightly.

6. RECONSTRUCTION & WORKING THROUGH-

As you become more functional, your mind starts working again, and you will find yourself seeking realistic solutions to problems posed by life without winter. You will start to work on practical and financial problems and reconstructing your life.

7. ACCEPTANCE & HOPE-

During this, the last of the seven stages in this grief model, you learn to accept and deal with the reality of your situation. Acceptance does not necessarily mean instant happiness. Given the pain and turmoil you have experienced, you can never return to the carefree, untroubled YOU that existed before this tragedy. But you will find a way forward.

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Folks,

****Fwiw warning**** Wow, major SE cold wave 2/27-9 if the 0Z Goofy were to just happen to be close to accurate. Those suffering from a lack of cold this winter are going to salivate over these maps. Wow, -14C at KATL! Can you say coldest air of season? Can you say lows in the teens and highs barely above freezing at KATL? By the way, that's four runs in a row of a cold 11-15 in the northcentral U.S. Could this be due to a cold bias or is this the real deal? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available.

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I'd rather a huge MA and NE storm than it falling apart and everyone getting nothing. At least I could watch a blizzard on TV and follow reports from our lucky board members there. Obviously I want to get buried, but this winter has been so bad if I can't get hit I hope someone does.

Patiently waiting for my blizzard on the Euro, I'm sure I won't be disappointed.....

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Folks,

****Fwiw warning**** Wow, major SE cold wave 2/27-9 if the 0Z Goofy were to just happen to be close to accurate. Those suffering from a lack of cold this winter are going to salivate over these maps. Wow, -14C at KATL! Can you say coldest air of season? Can you say lows in the teens and highs barely above freezing at KATL? By the way, that's four runs in a row of a cold 11-15 in the northcentral U.S. Could this be due to a cold bias or is this the real deal? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available.

**Fwiw** Well, the 6Z Goofy breaks the four in a row Goofy string of cold 11-15's with it being only moderately chilly at best. What will the 12Z show? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates. :)

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**Fwiw** Well, the 6Z Goofy breaks the four in a row Goofy string of cold 11-15's with it being only moderately chilly at best. What will the 12Z show? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates. :)

Euro montly all the way....Feb 25-27 or bust!! Hopefully it won't be dry, but even if it is, I'll take it.

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As most of you all know me...I have taken the "Rocky stance" to not giving up on Winter 2012. HOWEVER, my hopes are waning and my fears are becoming quite the reality when summing up Winter 2012. I, like Rocky, am in a stance with the towel in hand, but not thrown yet...

I made a post a few weeks ago about that. I'm right there with you.

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I made a post a few weeks ago about that. I'm right there with you.

LOL Jonathan! I FIGURED you would find that "gem" before me. Hey...maybe I can do a youtube video on how bad the winter has been and then take a .45 cal and shoot up my laptop? LOL.

MAYBE....this pic I posted will provide the karma we need. Holding on a wing and prayer...

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I made a post a few weeks ago about that. I'm right there with you.

As most of you all know me...I have taken the "Rocky stance" to not giving up on Winter 2012. HOWEVER, my hopes are waning and my fears are becoming quite the reality when summing up Winter 2012. I, like Rocky, am in a stance with the towel in hand, but not thrown yet...

If Apollo is winter... Well you guys know how that ended up for him.....

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I just don't think the temps will be there for anyone east of the mountains. When you're hoping for a storm to magically delay 24-36 hours to allow for the mysterious "dynamic cooling," that means rain rain rain.

Magic? Mysterious? It's science...will it delay? The NAM seems to think so as well as the Canadian. Will there be dynamic cooling? Of course there will IF we can get all players on the field we need to come together.

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Magic? Mysterious? It's science...will it delay? The NAM seems to think so as well as the Canadian. Will there be dynamic cooling? Of course there will IF we can get all players on the field we need to come together.

I know that dynamic cooling is real. It's also what folks cling to with the tips of their fingernails when absolutely nothing else points to snow.

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I will go on record saying two things.

1. I don't believe this snowstorm will provide a big snow to anyone in the southeast (I hope I eat crow on this one). But secondly, and more importantly..........

2. Many big snowstorms for our part of the world were horribly predicted by the GFS (and other models), even up to 2-3 days in advance of the system.

In a nutshell, I'd love to be very very wrong on this one.

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I know that dynamic cooling is real. It's also what folks cling to with the tips of their fingernails when absolutely nothing else points to snow.

It's clinged to because of how many people have benefited from it in marginal situations. I'll admit, this isn't the perfect setup and the safe approach is to expect rain. However that won't stop me from hoping for an looking for a way for this to trend better...I also don't loose any sleep (outside of model watching) when we end up with rain as opposed to snow.

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