Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The good thing is we are still 5 days out from anything happening, and the models are all over the place. Who knows what's going to really happen. Maybe we will get one good snow this winter after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The good thing is we are still 5 days out from anything happening, and the models are all over the place. Who knows what's going to really happen. Maybe we will get one good snow this winter after all. LOL.. are you bi-polar? You change so much emotionally minute by minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 LOL.. are you bi-polar? You change so much emotionally minute by minute. I'm just like the model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm just like the model runs! Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Since this weekends possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread. 1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns. 2. Models that do not agree are outliers. 3. A model that shows a good hit can not, by definition, be an outlier. 4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset. 5. The words, "storm dynamics will generate it's own cold air" means we are screwed but would never admit it. 6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4. 7. Analogs will be posted and previous events mentioned, that have no relationship to the current storm. Examples, March 1960, 1993. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. 9. Many posts will appear that start with, "I can't understand why it is not......" Others will contain cuss words combined with the term "dry slot". 10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1. ADDENDUM: Brick will be happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad. And that is just the first 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Since this weekends possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread. 1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns. 2. Models that do not agree are outliers. 3. A model that shows a good hit can not, by definition, be an outlier. 4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset. 5. The words, "storm dynamics will generate it's own cold air" means we are screwed but would never admit it. 6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4. 7. Analogs will be posted and previous events mentioned, that have no relationship to the current storm. Examples, March 1960, 1993. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. 9. Many posts will appear that start with, "I can't understand why it is not......" Others will contain cuss words combined with the term "dry slot". 10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1. ADDENDUM: Brick will be happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad. And that is just the first 24 hours. I love #8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Just post back w/ "Nevermind, it looks like a mostly rain event now." LOL, I will string it out longer first! Nah man you shouldn't. Hype it up, and maybe start adding ****ALERT**** ****ALERT**** to the beginning of each and every model run update. You'll get quite a following. That might be a good idea. Tomorrow's facebook post. ****ALERT**** MASSIVE WINTER STORM TO HIT SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND ... POTENTIAL FOR UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY ... STAY POSTED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM MY FEED AS DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE IRONED OUT ****ALERT**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Since this weekends possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread. 1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns. 2. Models that do not agree are outliers. 3. A model that shows a good hit can not, by definition, be an outlier. 4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset. 5. The words, "storm dynamics will generate it's own cold air" means we are screwed but would never admit it. 6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4. 7. Analogs will be posted and previous events mentioned, that have no relationship to the current storm. Examples, March 1960, 1993. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. 9. Many posts will appear that start with, "I can't understand why it is not......" Others will contain cuss words combined with the term "dry slot". 10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1. ADDENDUM: Brick will be happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad. And that is just the first 24 hours. That is awesome. Don't forget people throwing out the 6z and 18z runs just because they don't like them. Also, some people may cling to the JMA and NOGAPS if they look good. Oh, and the GFS will continually be called the GooFuS, oftentimes with no logical basis except that it isn't showing a winter storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The good thing is we are still 5 days out from anything happening, and the models are all over the place. Who knows what's going to really happen. Maybe we will get one good snow this winter after all. Be pessimistic, Brick. I find it to be much easier to be pessimistic this year than in previous years since this winter has been so atrocious already. Why should it change now? If you set your expectations low enough, you can never be disappointed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 LOL, I will string it out longer first! That might be a good idea. Tomorrow's facebook post. ****ALERT**** MASSIVE WINTER STORM TO HIT SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND ... POTENTIAL FOR UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY ... STAY POSTED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM MY FEED AS DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE IRONED OUT ****ALERT**** You forgot to put WOOF! WOOF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Since this weekends possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread. 1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns. You forgot, "it's snowing 800 miles to our west, this is a good sign for us down stream". I'm most guilty of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You forgot, "it's snowing 800 miles to our west, this is a good sign for us down stream". I'm most guilty of that one. I tried to keep it to 10 points. Many didn't make the cut. The material was almost endless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I know they have to be conservative. I am just saying that is the reasoning people on facebook are saying it's not going to happen. It might not, but they don't have the inside info like we do on this board. NWS is trying to cover all the bases. Sunday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 40%. If it rains, they are right. If it's sunny, they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 NWS is trying to cover all the bases. Sunday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 40%. If it rains, they are right. If it's sunny, they are right. I've found Greenville/Spartanburg NWS office to be pretty good IMO (not sure that's yours). They are pretty consistent in going with the prevailing model guidance consensus. But if there's some disagreement and they're not sure, they usually cover their basis like you said and mention a little of everything. That's what's solidifies my pessimism this weekend, because they have yet to even mention the possibility of piedmont snow for this weekend. If there were a healthy chance, I think they'd at least state it bears watching in their disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lolz at the Carolina Crusher being an analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lolz at the Carolina Crusher being an analog Who said that?? Edit: nvm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I guess we have a chance with this storm but need a perfect 50-50 low of proper strendth/location and we need a perfect SLP track with marginal cold air, not liking our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I guess we have a chance with this storm but need a perfect 50-50 low of proper strendth/location and we need a perfect SLP track with marginal cold air, not liking our chances. Unfortunately, I fully agree PB, tho I think the mtns have a decent shot here....maybe even at a big dawg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I guess we have a chance with this storm but need a perfect 50-50 low of proper strendth/location and we need a perfect SLP track with marginal cold air, not liking our chances. Yeah, but it is a non zero probability, which is better than it has been. Seen almost certain warning events (warnings hoisted) verify mid 30's and rn, also seen marginal events which were modeled with boundary layer issues, mixing stuff, verify all SN. Just as long as we are close at this range there is a chance. What kind of gets me, and I don't know if this will be the case with this storm, is the guidance latching onto a solution 7+ days out, hold it for a day or two, than all hell breaks loose between 120 till about 72 hrs out, model loosing the storm, weird solutions, etc, then around 72 hours we see everything converge on something similar to what was originally advertised, maybe a little less extreme. Folks al jumping ship 5 days out because it appears too warm/marginal a setup to eek out frozen type, kind of comical because some are the first ones to wet themselves when all of a sudden the guidance trends back to a hit. This is without a doubt the best chance of a sig winter storm for parts of the SE this winter. This has and will be a fun one to track, been awhile since we have seen one coming from 8-9 days out, as long as it is close, we have a chance. Wait till the 0z runs 2/17 before stressing about exact track, temps, etc... No Euro tonight, paid for that this morning, but will be up for the early runs. Sent from my iPhone 4S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 WeatherNC, you gonna chase if it doesnt hit ENC but is close nearby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 WeatherNC, you gonna chase if it doesnt hit ENC but is close nearby? Maybe, wife has the weekend off, talked about maybe going "antiqueing" on Saturday, north and west of Raliegh Don't know about a bonafied chase, three years in a row I witnessed a 1' SN-fall, would like to keep that streak going. Would need a pretty good shot at seeing 8-12" and not too far away, maybe central VA. I am not going to DC again. Still plenty of time to figure out if what and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 But mommy, I don't wanna go to school today. I want to stay home and bake cookies with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Unfortunately, I fully agree PB, tho I think the mtns have a decent shot here....maybe even at a big dawg. Yeah they could really get a good one, I still think this could up like Dec 19 2010, track wise, which is close to what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Maybe, wife has the weekend off, talked about maybe going "antiqueing" on Saturday, north and west of Raliegh Don't know about a bonafied chase, three years in a row I witnessed a 1' SN-fall, would like to keep that streak going. Would need a pretty good shot at seeing 8-12" and not too far away, maybe central VA. I am not going to DC again. Still plenty of time to figure out if what and where. I'm leaving for West Virginia on Friday and will return Sunday evening...so depending on when all this starts I should see something regardless on my way home. Hopefully I get to drive through some 1-2" rates now wouldn't that be cool. Taking the HD camera...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Since this weekends possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread. 1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns. 2. Models that do not agree are outliers. 3. A model that shows a good hit can not, by definition, be an outlier. 4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset. 5. The words, "storm dynamics will generate it's own cold air" means we are screwed but would never admit it. 6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4. 7. Analogs will be posted and previous events mentioned, that have no relationship to the current storm. Examples, March 1960, 1993. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. 9. Many posts will appear that start with, "I can't understand why it is not......" Others will contain cuss words combined with the term "dry slot". 10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1. ADDENDUM: Brick will be happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad. And that is just the first 24 hours. You crack me up...This is an instant classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, but it is a non zero probability, which is better than it has been. Seen almost certain warning events (warnings hoisted) verify mid 30's and rn, also seen marginal events which were modeled with boundary layer issues, mixing stuff, verify all SN. Just as long as we are close at this range there is a chance. What kind of gets me, and I don't know if this will be the case with this storm, is the guidance latching onto a solution 7+ days out, hold it for a day or two, than all hell breaks loose between 120 till about 72 hrs out, model loosing the storm, weird solutions, etc, then around 72 hours we see everything converge on something similar to what was originally advertised, maybe a little less extreme. Folks al jumping ship 5 days out because it appears too warm/marginal a setup to eek out frozen type, kind of comical because some are the first ones to wet themselves when all of a sudden the guidance trends back to a hit. This is without a doubt the best chance of a sig winter storm for parts of the SE this winter. This has and will be a fun one to track, been awhile since we have seen one coming from 8-9 days out, as long as it is close, we have a chance. Wait till the 0z runs 2/17 before stressing about exact track, temps, etc... No Euro tonight, paid for that this morning, but will be up for the early runs. Sent from my iPhone 4S Yes, non zero is not bad for us! To be honest I am just glad to be tracking something, might even look at the NAM tonight, haven't done that in a long time. I was getting so bored looking at 200+ hour model runs hoping for a wintery look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm leaving for West Virginia on Friday and will return Sunday evening...so depending on when all this starts I should see something regardless on my way home. Hopefully I get to drive through some 1-2" rates now wouldn't that be cool. Taking the HD camera...we'll see. Have fun! I was going to do the same until I tore my meniscus playing ball, wanted to go skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is how I imagine most mets looking when asked what they think will happen this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Maybe, wife has the weekend off, talked about maybe going "antiqueing" on Saturday, north and west of Raliegh Don't know about a bonafied chase, three years in a row I witnessed a 1' SN-fall, would like to keep that streak going. Would need a pretty good shot at seeing 8-12" and not too far away, maybe central VA. I am not going to DC again. Still plenty of time to figure out if what and where. "antiquing" hasn't she figured out your ways by now.... I was going to say if you ended up in my neck of the woods to give me a holler but you dispelled that possibility... Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just saw a post in the storm thread about wishcasting....who exactly is wishcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.