Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think everyone should change their avatar to this picture for good mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 OK, someone tell me there is no chance of seeing snow here this weekend so I can stop watching every model run and keep myself from going crazy. Doesn't look like anything but rain here on Sunday, and then back to the mid 50s on Monday. I think everyone should change their avatar to this picture for good mojo. So you don't want snow or you want snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I want snow. I just don't want to be watching the model runs all week and then end up not getting anything. That is the torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I want snow. I just don't want to be watching the model runs all week and then end up not getting anything. That is the torture. Considering you can't actually give any actual analysis on a map I didn't think you watched model runs. Tell me what did the 00z GFS look like to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Considering you can't actually give any actual analysis on a map I didn't think you watched model runs. Tell me what did the 00z GFS look like to you? I guess I should clarify that it is waiting for others here to post about the model runs. The play by plays are both exciting and torture at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looks like the last GFS run was just a lot of rain. Oh joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Can I banter in here that winter is over. Looking forward to spring and yard work, yayyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Have to hope the models trend colder closer to this weekend. It did seem we had a couple days last week that were colder than forecasted because the clouds came sooner and stayed longer than was thought to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Can I banter in here that winter is over. Looking forward to spring and yard work, yayyyy Sure, come to my side (the dark side). I've figured out that I just need to stop posting. One of those things if you don't have anything good to say, then don't say it. That way everyone won't think you're negative all the time ( a Widremann is what they call it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Sure, come to my side (the dark side). I've figured out that I just need to stop posting. One of those things if you don't have anything good to say, then don't say it. That way everyone won't think you're negative all the time ( a Widremann is what they call it). I am just beat on this winter, ready for it to be over, can't believe we have been watching models since early December and there has been nothing to show for it. Losing the 50/50 low was the last thing I thought would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Have to hope the models trend colder closer to this weekend. It did seem we had a couple days last week that were colder than forecasted because the clouds came sooner and stayed longer than was thought to occur. Other models don't have to trend cooler...they have cold. Wait until after 2pm for the 12z runs and see what the euro, cmc, etc. say. Don't give up because a couple of runs of the GooFuS show 4-5" in Raleigh then rain with the 850 freezing line in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Other models don't have to trend cooler...they have cold. Wait until after 2pm for the 12z runs and see what the euro, cmc, etc. say. Don't give up because a couple of runs of the GooFuS show 4-5" in Raleigh then rain with the 850 freezing line in VA. The GFS showed 4 to 5 inches of snow in RDU before? I must have missed that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Like I've said a million times, I'll loose hope and get depressed on Thursday and Friday if the system is no longer there. Models flip, then flop then flip back it's always a rollercoaster and that's what makes it fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The GFS showed 4 to 5 inches of snow in RDU before? I must have missed that one. Yeah last night's 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Like I've said a million times, I'll loose hope and get depressed on Thursday and Friday if the system is no longer there. Models flip, then flop then flip back it's always a rollercoaster and that's what makes it fun. And also drives you crazy at the same time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's like the models are playing whack-a-mole. Every new run one necessary feature that wasn't there on the previous one appears, but then another one disappears. Oh well, at least it feels like winter in the SE now. Tracking a would be snow storm knowing that we'll probably end up with 35 and rain. It's better than the torch at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Like I've said a million times, I'll loose hope and get depressed on Thursday and Friday if the system is no longer there. Models flip, then flop then flip back it's always a rollercoaster and that's what makes it fun. True that. I'd rather not be in the bullseye right now and I'm being completely honest. If NC is in the bullseye come Thurs/Fri I will be excited, less time for things to change. Right now consider it more time for things to go our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah last night's 0z. I'd gladly take that. There is still a lot of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's like the models are playing whack-a-mole. Every new run one necessary feature that wasn't there on the previous one appears, but then another one disappears. Oh well, at least it feels like winter in the SE now. Tracking a would be snow storm knowing that we'll probably end up with 35 and rain. It's better than the torch at least! No it isn't. Cold air with no snow is like having a hot girl who's boring in bed. Pointless. If it isn't going to snow, I'll take sunny and 70 every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 No it isn't. Cold air with no snow is like having a hot girl who's boring in bed. Pointless. If it isn't going to snow, I'll take sunny and 70 every day. I couldn't disagree more. I want it cold in winter whether I get snow or not. Snow is the icing (nice pun) on the cake. Winter rocks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well, I guess it is a catch-22 for me. I hate the cold, but I love snow, and you can't have snow without the cold. I just hate when it is cold and no snow to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Just read RaleighWx's latest blog. We need the northern and southern streams to become friends and cooperate! http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/watching-snow-potential-for-this-weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I made the mistake of posting about this weekend's potential event on Facebook. Now everyone is asking me how much we're going to get, ect. I really should just keep my mouth shut because most people don't hear the "potential" in "potential event" and are going to berate me when cold water falls from the heavens this weekend as opposed to white bundles of joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I made the mistake of posting about this weekend's potential event on Facebook. Now everyone is asking me how much we're going to get, ect. I really should just keep my mouth shut because most people don't hear the "potential" in "potential event" and are going to berate me cold water falls from the heavens this weekend as opposed to white bundles of joy. Just post back w/ "Nevermind, it looks like a mostly rain event now." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I made the mistake of posting about this weekend's potential event on Facebook. Now everyone is asking me how much we're going to get, ect. I really should just keep my mouth shut because most people don't hear the "potential" in "potential event" and are going to berate me cold water falls from the heavens this weekend as opposed to white bundles of joy. Nah man you shouldn't. Hype it up, and maybe start adding ****ALERT**** ****ALERT**** to the beginning of each and every model run update. You'll get quite a following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I made the mistake of posting about this weekend's potential event on Facebook. Now everyone is asking me how much we're going to get, ect. I really should just keep my mouth shut because most people don't hear the "potential" in "potential event" and are going to berate me cold water falls from the heavens this weekend as opposed to white bundles of joy. I posted on facebook about it, too. It's funny because everyone else keeps saying it's not going to do anything, WRAL is calling for 50 and rain on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I posted on facebook about it, too. It's funny because everyone else keeps saying it's not going to do anything, WRAL is calling for 50 and rain on Sunday. WRAL is not a standard. Because WRAL says 50 and rain for Sunday does not mean they are making a mistake or that they are right. It means that statistically speaking, the probability of a moderate to major event happening given the winter we've had is low and the probability of a rain event is high. So TV mets rather not mention the S word unless they're willing to accept if it doesn't snow, people will call them WRONG. The fact is, they'll like to see more agreement and a more conclusive event being displayed as we get closer before they start talking about snow, mixing, etc. For now, expect to continue to see rain and the high to slowly decrease as we get closer. Basically, when talking about the 5-7 day forecast, you don't want to throw out a keyword that makes people think it will snow...so in the live forecast you want to say "and a chance of rain for the weekend..." to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I posted on facebook about it, too. It's funny because everyone else keeps saying it's not going to do anything, WRAL is calling for 50 and rain on Sunday. They will probably be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 WRAL is not a standard. Because WRAL says 50 and rain for Sunday does not mean they are making a mistake or that they are right. It means that statistically speaking, the probability of a moderate to major event happening given the winter we've had is low and the probability of a rain event is high. So TV mets rather not mention the S word unless they're willing to accept if it doesn't snow, people will call them WRONG. The fact is, they'll like to see more agreement and a more conclusive event being displayed as we get closer before they start talking about snow, mixing, etc. For now, expect to continue to see rain and the high to slowly decrease as we get closer. Basically, when talking about the 5-7 day forecast, you don't want to throw out a keyword that makes people think it will snow...so in the live forecast you want to say "and a chance of rain for the weekend..." to end it. I know they have to be conservative. I am just saying that is the reasoning people on facebook are saying it's not going to happen. It might not, but they don't have the inside info like we do on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I know they have to be conservative. I am just saying that is the reasoning people on facebook are saying it's not going to happen. It might not, but they don't have the inside info like we do on this board. Oh I misunderstood your post. I was thinking come on brick!!! Well tell them what I said, a lot of TV meteorology has the public's thoughts in mind. If it was geared to weather weenies they'd model talk all day. Don't we wish huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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