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February Banter Thread


Gastonwxman

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Snow Queen you can pretty much wave goodbye to prime climo time but we will see what happens late this month into March as you said. Of course anything then will disappear quick with the increasing sun angle etc. We shall see.

Ok, thanks, that is what i thought...but wanted to confirm. I know weird things have happened before that were unexpected, but by reading the posts, and using a little common sense tells me chances are we are done.

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Snow Queen you can pretty much wave goodbye to prime climo time but we will see what happens late this month into March as you said. Of course anything then will disappear quick with the increasing sun angle etc. We shall see.

Meh I am over it already, I am hoping we dont see a major pattern flip now till at least June, I want severe season to rock and not end up cloudy, 45 with drizzle for days on end.....

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I will be out for most of the day guys, going to Oxford to pickup my new (to me at-least) horse tiller. Please keep the weenie and crap posts to a min (this only applies to a small percentage), and try not to light up the report center while I am gone. ;)

Sounds like you are ready to start a garden :thumbsup: I would love to have one, but after the past few summers I'm not even going to attempt it :lol:

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Virga storm incoming :lol:

Station ID: KCAE Lat: 33.94 Long: 81.11

GFS Model Run: 0Z 10FEB 2012

HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Low Middle High Max Min Sfc Snowfall

Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds Clouds Clouds Tmp Tmp Vis in

0 02/10 00Z 44 33 111 4 0.00 0.00 549 568 2.6 -17.9 1023.2 0 CLR CLR CLR **** **** 20.0 0.0

3 02/10 03Z 41 33 142 6 0.00 0.00 550 568 4.0 -17.2 1022.7 20 CLR 194FEW232 CLR 44 41 20.0 0.0

6 02/10 06Z 39 33 169 5 0.00 0.00 550 569 4.0 -17.5 1023.3 21 CLR 194FEW232 299FEW355 44 39 20.0 0.0

9 02/10 09Z 38 33 171 5 0.00 0.00 550 568 4.1 -17.7 1022.3 67 CLR CLR 251BKN327 39 38 20.0 0.0

12 02/10 12Z 39 34 178 4 0.00 0.00 549 567 4.2 -17.9 1022.0 77 CLR 198SCT231 246BKN316 39 38 17.3 0.0

15 02/10 15Z 48 39 186 3 0.00 0.00 549 567 3.7 -18.3 1021.9 94 CLR 167BKN226 236BKN336 48 39 20.0 0.0

18 02/10 18Z 53 45 171 6 0.00 0.00 549 565 4.1 -17.0 1018.9 96 030FEW050 156BKN228 238BKN325 53 39 20.0 0.0

21 02/10 21Z 54 47 202 4 0.00 0.00 549 563 4.9 -19.0 1015.8 82 -RA 019FEW052 119BKN224 242SCT298 54 52 6.9 0.0

24 02/11 00Z 46 44 221 2 0.00 0.00 549 562 5.1 -18.7 1014.6 70 -RA 033FEW064 118BKN201 242FEW298 54 46 2.4 0.0

27 02/11 03Z 48 44 262 6 0.00 0.00 549 560 4.8 -18.9 1013.8 67 -RA 087SCT115 121SCT185 278FEW314 49 46 5.5 0.0

30 02/11 06Z 45 41 253 10 0.02 0.00 546 557 2.3 -19.8 1012.8 76 -RA 076BKN112 118SCT189 237SCT283 49 45 6.3 0.0

33 02/11 09Z 41 37 261 12 0.00 0.00 545 553 2.3 -18.2 1010.7 23 CLR 134FEW182 CLR 45 41 7.8 0.0

36 02/11 12Z 38 34 275 13 0.00 0.00 545 554 2.0 -17.1 1011.5 12 CLR 134FEW182 CLR 45 38 8.0 0.0

39 02/11 15Z 46 35 290 16 0.00 0.00 544 554 -0.2 -16.9 1011.8 5 CLR CLR 290FEW312 46 38 20.0 0.0

42 02/11 18Z 52 32 300 15 0.00 0.00 542 551 -2.7 -17.8 1011.9 38 CLR CLR 266SCT310 52 38 20.0 0.0

45 02/11 21Z 43 21 344 20 0.00 0.00 536 547 -6.2 -19.1 1014.0 86 -SN 048BKN079 CLR 236FEW287 52 43 20.0 0.0

48 02/12 00Z 31 11 340 18 0.00 0.00 529 544 -9.8 -18.9 1018.7 57 -FZRN 051BKN081 CLR 235FEW287 52 31 20.0 0.0

51 02/12 03Z 25 7 321 17 0.00 0.00 524 542 -9.8 -23.4 1022.4 0 CLR CLR CLR 31 25 20.0 0.0

54 02/12 06Z 24 4 335 15 0.00 0.00 522 541 -9.1 -26.2 1023.8 0 CLR CLR CLR 31 24 20.0 0.0

57 02/12 09Z 24 4 343 11 0.00 0.00 524 543 -7.6 -24.2 1024.4 0 CLR CLR CLR 25 24 20.0 0.0

60 02/12 12Z 24 5 320 7 0.00 0.00 528 548 -6.6 -22.6 1026.3 0 CLR CLR CLR 25 24 20.0 0.0

63 02/12 15Z 31 4 303 8 0.00 0.00 530 552 -7.1 -22.0 1028.3 0 CLR CLR CLR 31 24 20.0 0.0

66 02/12 18Z 39 7 303 9 0.00 0.00 533 554 -6.1 -20.4 1025.8 0 CLR CLR CLR 39 24 20.0 0.0

69 02/12 21Z 42 10 298 8 0.00 0.00 536 556 -5.1 -19.3 1024.5 0 CLR CLR CLR 42 39 20.0 0.0

72 02/13 00Z 31 9 281 4 0.00 0.00 538 559 -4.4 -18.6 1025.3 0 CLR CLR CLR 42 31 20.0 0.0

75 02/13 03Z 28 9 294 1 0.00 0.00 540 561 -3.3 -18.7 1026.5 0 CLR CLR CLR 31 28 20.0 0.0

78 02/13 06Z 29 10 184 1 0.00 0.00 540 561 -2.7 -17.7 1025.9 0 CLR CLR CLR 31 28 20.0 0.0

81 02/13 09Z 28 10 203 1 0.00 0.00 541 561 -2.0 -17.9 1025.4 0 CLR CLR CLR 29 28 20.0 0.0

84 02/13 12Z 28 9 132 2 0.00 0.00 542 563 -1.5 -17.5 1025.8 0 CLR CLR CLR 29 28 20.0 0.0

87 02/13 15Z 40 12 180 4 0.00 0.00 543 564 -0.8 -17.8 1026.4 15 CLR CLR 230FEW271 40 28 20.0 0.0

90 02/13 18Z 47 17 192 5 0.00 0.00 544 563 -0.2 -17.5 1023.9 13 CLR CLR 230FEW277 47 28 20.0 0.0

93 02/13 21Z 48 22 188 7 0.00 0.00 545 563 0.3 -17.5 1021.6 31 CLR 193FEW229 230SCT256 49 47 20.0 0.0

96 02/14 00Z 37 22 195 7 0.00 0.00 545 564 1.1 -18.1 1022.5 17 CLR 193FEW229 231FEW257 48 37 20.0 0.0

99 02/14 03Z 35 23 200 6 0.00 0.00 546 564 0.8 -17.5 1022.9 79 CLR 150SCT193 256BKN317 38 35 20.0 0.0

102 02/14 06Z 35 25 210 7 0.00 0.00 545 563 1.3 -17.0 1021.7 64 CLR 151SCT190 245BKN310 38 34 20.0 0.0

105 02/14 09Z 36 27 247 5 0.00 0.00 545 562 0.7 -17.9 1020.7 99 -RA CLR 154BKN196 235BKN311 36 35 20.0 0.0

108 02/14 12Z 36 27 320 1 0.00 0.00 545 563 0.1 -18.4 1022.1 99 091FEW114 138BKN206 232BKN308 37 35 20.0 0.0

111 02/14 15Z 40 31 186 3 0.04 0.00 545 564 0.6 -17.7 1022.6 95 -RA 082SCT110 139BKN224 230BKN286 40 35 20.0 0.0

114 02/14 18Z 43 38 148 3 0.06 0.00 547 564 1.8 -17.4 1020.5 97 -RA 076SCT113 130BKN222 230BKN282 43 35 4.5 0.0

117 02/14 21Z 44 41 123 6 0.04 0.00 549 564 3.4 -16.4 1018.9 99 -RA 062BKN112 115BKN185 CLR 44 42 1.1 0.0

120 02/15 00Z 44 43 135 5 0.05 0.00 550 566 5.5 -16.2 1019.0 99 -RA 050BKN113 116BKN164 CLR 44 42 0.5 0.0

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Looks like the Valentine's Day storm is going to be a dud, even for the mountains.

But now we have a huge storm to watch for the 19th/20th! It's gonna happen! :lmao:

:lmao: ...Wake me up when we're w/in a week.

I do agree w/ what Cold Rain said in the other thread about it being nice to see a high to the north. That's the reason I haven't posted a thing about the possibilities of snow on the 14th. High sliding off the coast never seem to work out for us.

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I never said we shouldn't discuss it, I thought the extent of the discussion on the long, long range op's was a bit much. Let's be real, there is not much to really say about a Global OP run in it's most extended hour. It also has little value in terms of sensible weather. It's likely never to verify and my point was comparing the last two years to this year. You guys both missed the boat on my comment.

But read back over what was said. Everyone just gave a specific of what a model was showing. I didn't see anyone over hyping or anything like that. We all just basically said what it showed. I'm just not getting what you define as "extent". If someone said, "Euro shows a huge snow storm but probably won't happen" do you honestly think in any winter no one would at least want some of the details? This happens every year especially when the OP Euro shows it. I think the fact that people are saying things like what your saying is more of a sign of how bad this winter has been. With good cause I agree since it's been so dreadful...just my personal opinion is that there is nothing wrong with discussing some specifics of a LR OP prediction even if it has a 2% chance of verifying. Let's face it anything the Euro or GFS shows for a raging blizzard especially this year is fun to dream about.

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But read back over what was said. Everyone just gave a specific of what a model was showing. I didn't see anyone over hyping or anything like that. We all just basically said what it showed. I'm just not getting what you define as "extent". If someone said, "Euro shows a huge snow storm but probably won't happen" do you honestly think in any winter no one would at least want some of the details? This happens every year especially when the OP Euro shows it. I think the fact that people are saying things like what your saying is more of a sign of how bad this winter has been. With good cause I agree since it's been so dreadful...just my personal opinion is that there is nothing wrong with discussing some specifics of a LR OP prediction even if it has a 2% chance of verifying. Let's face it anything the Euro or GFS shows for a raging blizzard especially this year is fun to dream about.

I can't disagree with anything you just wrote. I think sometimes the weenies get a tad too excited and some don't realize the odds are very, very low and near 0 for the exact depiction.

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How did it go yesterday? I was thinking about you, you 'ole tough mudder.

It was awesome Peach, thanks for asking! 12 miles of 20+ obstacles with cold ass water, electric shock, lot of mud, crawling through pipes, climbing nets, jumping off a 15 plank into a cold lake, more mud, mud, and the Dong Dangler.. Not to mention running hills, watching a 250 pound grown man twist his ankle, bloody noses and people blacking out from shock and much more..

It was around 43 when we started at 9am. However, the wind continued to blow more out of the NW which made it cold. I was good until mile 10 when I had a serve cramp in my left leg (I got it stuck in the mud and as I went to pull out the leg cramped bad) but it went away quickly.

Photos posted by Tough Mudder!

http://www.facebook.com/#!/media/set/?set=a.10150663950857790.446807.121520047789&type=3

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