usedtobe Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Wonderful piece, Wes. I enjoyed reading it. Thanks, but I got compared to the accuwx HM and his hyping so I guess some of the earlier hyping from not CWG blogs poisoned the well a little. I think your call has as much chance at verifying as mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I agree but do think the Ao will stay negative pretty much through the month which might allow the NAO to occasionally go negative. Even then, I think the higher heights in the atlantic will be a little farther south or east than we'd like in DC. Not good if your worried of east based NAO's coming/going which could lead to more inland tracks, assuming we get systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 We are still going to have to time something and there is some luck involved. I'm not going all-in on this upcoming pattern nor that winter is over once it "breaks". The AO and Atlantic are not hostile like they were for most of the winter. I like Wes's idea of uncertainty and near normal guess for February. Anyone going strongly one way or the other about the next 6 weeks I would dismiss immediately and not pay any attention to them. There are definitely some yellow flags on some of the guidance, especially with how they try and break down the ridge out west...EC ensembles especially. I didn't like seeing that trend in the last 24 hours, but some of the guidance also tried to build back some ridging in the final panels, so perhaps the big ridge wanes and then maybe a weaker one replaces it, as long as the tropics try to help out. The weeklies really tried to build a -NAO, but I don't know if I completely buy that outlook. I noticed these Monday updates seem to always look a little more favorable, than the new set of weeklies come out Thursday and wipe out any good trends from the Monday update. Should be interesting to see going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Thanks, but I got compared to the accuwx HM and his hyping so I guess some of the earlier hyping from not CWG blogs poisoned the well a little. I think your call has as much chance at verifying as mine. Conveying uncertainty is the best way to go here. Nobody should be expressing confidence about the pattern. I'd be surprised if we got shutout in February but beyond that I have no confidence in any outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 And yes, nice piece Wes. I enjoy your breakdown of the pattern..even from up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 There are definitely some yellow flags on some of the guidance, especially with how they try and break down the ridge out west...EC ensembles especially. I didn't like seeing that trend in the last 24 hours, but some of the guidance also tried to build back some ridging in the final panels, so perhaps the big ridge wanes and then maybe a weaker one replaces it, as long as the tropics try to help out. The weeklies really tried to build a -NAO, but I don't know if I completely buy that outlook. I noticed these Monday updates seem to always look a little more favorable, than the new set of weeklies come out Thursday and wipe out any good trends from the Monday update. Should be interesting to see going forward. I think if we got 6-10" area wide between now and March 31st most of us would be happy. There are a lot of ways to do that and they don't all necessarily require a money pattern to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think if we got 6-10" area wide between now and March 31st most of us would be happy. There are a lot of ways to do that and they don't all necessarily require a money pattern to lock in. I think there is a decent shot at getting a moderate event there (>3")...most likely between Feb 10-20...I wouldn't look to the weekend or early next week stuff to try and get it...if that works out, nice bonus. The most likely period is probably either when the trough retrogrades a bit or when the PNA starts to break down a little and we get a period of split flow before it breaks down totally. Obviously without a robust -NAO in the classic Davis Straight region, it will require some synoptic luck too. It might come in the form of a messy overrunning or transition event. If the ridging in Greenland gets decently potent, that will obviously help...some of the guidance has been trying to build the heights more and more in that region as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think if we got 6-10" area wide between now and March 31st most of us would be happy. There are a lot of ways to do that and they don't all necessarily require a money pattern to lock in. Yeah exactly. The pattern becomes more favorable which is about all you can ask. Hopefully the models don't accelerate any break down of that ridge, with the final middle finger coming around from the vortex west of AK. It sends a trough into the GOA that tries to break it down a bit, but the EC and GEM..even the 12z GEFS looked like it tried to rebuild ridging into the area just west of the Pacific coast near day 15-16. I have noticed the EC ensembles have had a pattern of developing dateline ridging at day 15 but seems to never get past day 12, as you go forward in time. I think many will be just happy to have increased chances of events, with hopefully a shot of more widespread action once the trough retros and nrn stream domination relaxes just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 The ens mean sure looks more favorable than the operational but the cfs2 has toned down the cold in the east and now has two weeks of near average temps and it generally keeps things dry except it get to near normal fro week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The ens mean sure looks more favorable than the operational but the cfs2 has toned down the cold in the east and now has two weeks of near average temps and it generally keeps things dry except it get to near normal fro week 2. this is the first year I've seen the cfs2 mentioned (maybe because it's new, I don't know) how is it vs. the CFS we all know and love....are you aware of any stats on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Mitch, I don't know any stats on it. I think DTK is going to look into it. As far as I know it's a more sophisticated version of the original CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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