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Pattern change CWG article


usedtobe

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only think you should have added (for us weenies) Wes is the CFS precip map for weeks 1 and 2 :)

look at week 2! hopefully the forecast works out

http://origin.cpc.nc...k2_20120129.gif

Mitch, that's a day later run than what I saw earlier today when I wrote the piece. The cold weeklies are week 2 and 3 though even 4 didn't torch over us. We can hope wetter run is right. maybe it's picking up on the GFS storm idea.

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Favorite article of the year Wes! I think it's the only relatively optimistic one though. lol

Interesting point about the AO and I'm glad you explained it in detail. I started wondering about it when I saw it dipping down below -3 and then -4. It's so hard to be optimistic this year but I really think that we are on the verge of a period that will actually "feel" like winter.

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Not worth much. The models aren't of much use this winter. I think focusing on a specific period or threat window has humbled some of the best mets this winter.

Color me skeptical about the prolonged -NAO regime setting up in the weeklies, but the Pacific pattern fits the expected MJO progression quite nicely.

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Color me skeptical about the prolonged -NAO regime setting up in the weeklies, but the Pacific pattern fits the expected MJO progression quite nicely.

Indices don't matter to me at this point. I'm happy the MJO is entering the good phases, but beyond that I don't really care what the models show beyond day 4 as long as we aren't in an entirely hostile regime. It helps that I am not swinging for the fences.

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Indices don't matter to me at this point. I'm happy the MJO is entering the good phases, but beyond that I don't really care what the models show beyond day 4 as long as we aren't in an entirely hostile regime. It helps that I am not swinging for the fences.

Sounds like if something were to pop it will be on very short notice. Model chaos with the MJO moving into a better position just makes it worse as far as "seeing" prospects.

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Sounds like if something were to pop it will be on very short notice. Model chaos with the MJO moving into a better position just makes it worse as far as "seeing" prospects.

We are still going to have to time something and there is some luck involved. I'm not going all-in on this upcoming pattern nor that winter is over once it "breaks". The AO and Atlantic are not hostile like they were for most of the winter. I like Wes's idea of uncertainty and near normal guess for February. Anyone going strongly one way or the other about the next 6 weeks I would dismiss immediately and not pay any attention to them.

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We are still going to have to time something and there is some luck involved. I'm not going all-in on this upcoming pattern nor that winter is over once it "breaks". The AO and Atlantic are not hostile like they were for most of the winter. I like Wes's idea of uncertainty and near normal guess for February. Anyone going strongly one way or the other about the next 6 weeks I would dismiss immediately and not pay any attention to them.

Without the AO tanking and transient PNAs I think it would have been safe to say climo would have been tough to get to this season

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Wes, since you're saying that the models currently show a northern steam dominated pattern, does it mean that the 40N folks have a much better shot at seeing significant snow, as opposed to us?

Fozz,

it wouldn't take much for the polar jet to dig south when the PNA ridge is very amplified; some of the largest snowstorms have done this.

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Fozz,

it wouldn't take much for the polar jet to dig south when the PNA ridge is very amplified; some of the largest snowstorms have done this.

Well, even Wes did say that a 1/26/11 type storm is possible, but I think it's more likely that this region gets fringed or gets minor 1-3" type events. A few of these flawed events can certainly bring DC/BWI to their February average of 5-8". I'd be much more excited if I was in northern NJ, based on my take of this article.

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Well, even Wes did say that a 1/26/11 type storm is possible, but I think it's more likely that this region gets fringed or gets minor 1-3" type events. A few of these flawed events can certainly bring DC/BWI to their February average of 5-8". I'd be much more excited if I was in northern NJ, based on my take of this article.

Fozz,there are signs that a split flow may develop at some point. If that happens then the chances of getting a storm that effects a large part of the east coast are improved. However, just like Chris said, you can get a northern impulse to dig enough to effect northern VA on up through NE.

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Fozz,there are signs that a split flow may develop at some point. If that happens then the chances of getting a storm that effects a large part of the east coast are improved. However, just like Chris said, you can get a northern impulse to dig enough to effect northern VA on up through NE.

I sure hope that you, Chris, and BethesdaBoy end up being right, but I think it's far too early to get excited about a huge storm when the pattern won't even be ideal, and it's hard to even have that in a 2nd year Nina (if this were happening in a Nino instead, I'd be much more excited).

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Wes, since you're saying that the models currently show a northern steam dominated pattern, does it mean that the 40N folks have a much better shot at seeing significant snow, as opposed to us?

Your more likely to get clipper type events and miller b rvrnyd with the northern stream dominating which do bettr as you move north from dc. We usually don't do well with miller b type events in Dc. Back in the 60s we had more of them and of course feb 10th of 2009. .

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Color me skeptical about the prolonged -NAO regime setting up in the weeklies, but the Pacific pattern fits the expected MJO progression quite nicely.

I agree but do think the Ao will stay negative pretty much through the month which might allow the NAO to occasionally go negative. Even then, I think the higher heights in the atlantic will be a little farther south or east than we'd like in DC.

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