weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Well everyone this is it! It's now April, no more full months to go...just weeks now until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I am looking forward to chasing something good this year...SE IN in early June? Doubt we'll get back to back years with significant severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 6, 2012 Author Share Posted April 6, 2012 It's almost May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 SPC AC 130602 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX...CNTRL AND WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...SE NEB...NW MO AND FAR SW IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS... TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS ECNTRL KS...CNTRL OK INTO NW TX. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NAM AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA KS SWD TO AROUND OKLAHOMA CITY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 60 TO 75 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND LOOPED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY. 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST DUE TO THE EXPECTED INTENSE NATURE OF THE STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO QUESTION. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ...MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STORMS EXPANDING NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED IN ECNTRL NEB. THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS SERN NEB...SW IA...NW MO AND ERN KS WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS LOCATED. ...NW TX/WCNTRL TX... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL DUE TO THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 04/13/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 That is incredible wording for a day 2 outlook, especially for the first issuing of the Day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 score expect a few of these setups in the next three/four months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 The month of April is moving by way too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Since Wiz is asleep at the wheel. 5 days!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 25, 2012 Author Share Posted April 25, 2012 Since Wiz is asleep at the wheel. 5 days!! I've been real distracted lately with the Bruins and the Whale. I'll update the thread when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 I've been real distracted lately with the Bruins and the Whale. I'll update the thread when I get home. Well atleast you can't use the Bruins as an excuse anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Looks like we break out of this ugly, cool wx pattern soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Well atleast you can't use the Bruins as an excuse anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Agreed It is funny though because growing up on the shoreline getting a good thunderstorm east of New Haven was virtually impossible. I think I only saw hail once in my life. Living up here in the valley it's a different beast. Just depends on where in the region you are. Agree with your agreement. Up in the NE corner, I've seen a lot of storms tear across western and central CT before fading away - but nothing like happens down along the SE cooast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 2 days left...and in 3 hours and 2 minutes it will be 1 day!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I hope you get to chase something good this year! 2 days left...and in 3 hours and 2 minutes it will be 1 day!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 I hope you get to chase something good this year! I know! I'm not doing baseball this year so I won't have that in the way. My friend from NH will be coming down the final week of May/first week of June...we've had some pretty good success choosing this period the past 3 years we've done this so hopefully this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 If you ever want to go and dont have anyone to go with just let me know because I want to go after anything this year I know! I'm not doing baseball this year so I won't have that in the way. My friend from NH will be coming down the final week of May/first week of June...we've had some pretty good success choosing this period the past 3 years we've done this so hopefully this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 If you ever want to go and dont have anyone to go with just let me know because I want to go after anything this year Sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 What s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif prolific damij Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2012 Author Share Posted May 1, 2012 IT'S MAY 1st!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Congrats!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Welcome to May 1st, when it's 45F and raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Friday is looking interesting according to the GFS. Especially in Eastern New York and Western MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Thank goodness we have youtube to get a good thunderstorm, before summer ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 I'm going to be extremely honest, I don't think this is really going to be a great season at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I'm going to be extremely honest, I don't think this is really going to be a great season at all. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Shocker. I think it may be relatively boring with little threats...something like 1999 or 2003 perhaps. Those were great years though for NY/PA, especially 1999 they had several damaging wind events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 You know it's bad when the best severe of the year was in March...just like the best snow is in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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