weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Two more months until May 1st!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Other than some marble size hail and rotted maple limbs being blown down, it's not easy to get good severe in SNE. We just don't have the atmospheric variables to support it, like other places to our south and west. Maybe 2-3 times a season we get a good severe outbreak, but that's about it. Personally, I enjoy a tstm with good CG, but even those aren't easy to come by. Different strokes for different folks, but consider yourself lucky to get multiple, good severe events in SNE. Yep, especially down along the south coast. Storms just usually aren't that impressive. Went to the mountains of New Mexico a while back, now that's an area that has some real storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 One more full month until May...WOWOWOWOWOWOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 One more full month until May...WOWOWOWOWOWOW April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 April? There is only one more full month between now and May...April. We're already going through March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 lol I would love to be there when you saw your first tornado There is only one more full month between now and May...April. We're already going through March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 lol I would love to be there when you saw your first tornado Should have happened last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Maybe this year will be your time.. Ive seen two now and both times I wasnt expecting it Should have happened last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Time for a bump...we're almost there. IT'S ALMOST MAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I can feel it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Well put. I think severe in SNE (epescially Western areas) is no where near as bad as some of the posters here make it out to be. I also don't believe that we used up our "severe quota" for the next 15 years cause of the 6/1/11 event. Just look at 5/29/95, 7/3/97, 5/31/98. Obvisiously not a great chance that we get another big event but I'll be in full severe mode come May 15th. Agreed It is funny though because growing up on the shoreline getting a good thunderstorm east of New Haven was virtually impossible. I think I only saw hail once in my life. Living up here in the valley it's a different beast. Just depends on where in the region you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I can feel it!! that is a gorgeous shot of a CB over the tree tops. Bet that would be cool lookin' at night with lightning curling around the edges... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 notice the "mini" tornado alley in SNE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 God I love when this thread gets posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 that is a gorgeous shot of a CB over the tree tops. Bet that would be cool lookin' at night with lightning curling around the edges... Towering CU chase on the rock hopper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Towering mens weenies make me want to ride them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 God I love when this thread gets posts The storm that turned day into night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 The storm that turned day into night! That was a sick line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 12z GFS actually carries a warm frontal MCS right through SNE at D8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 12z GFS actually carries a warm frontal MCS right through SNE at D8 It's starting!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Should have titled this countdown to March 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 Pretty crazy how we kicked off severe wx season on March 14th. Perhaps from now on I should do my countdowns to March 1st b/c May is too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Pretty crazy how we kicked off severe wx season on March 14th. Perhaps from now on I should do my countdowns to March 1st b/c May is too late. Last night reminded me of the second wave of activity on June 1st. Sometimes the actions needs to wait until the actual support approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 Last night reminded me of the second wave of activity on June 1st. Sometimes the actions needs to wait until the actual support approaches. Yeah I was actually thinking about this in the shower. Despite the loss of heating the models held onto some decent elevated instability through the night with CAA in the mid levels and the better support was to move through overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Only a few more weeks to go . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 I actually believe this season is going to SUCK. However, if you look back at years in which we had a summer with ENSO neutral following a La Nina winter the years have been pretty decent...there is much more to it than that. I think we will be in a drought by the end of summer...precip departures since winter aren't pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 My God...next week look potentially VERY active across much of the Plains and South...vigorous s/w energy and negatively tilted trough along with a major dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 I actually believe this season is going to SUCK. However, if you look back at years in which we had a summer with ENSO neutral following a La Nina winter the years have been pretty decent...there is much more to it than that. I think we will be in a drought by the end of summer...precip departures since winter aren't pretty. I'm not sure how well winter precip correlates...I'd have to look at all seasons, but I recall two seasons right off the top of my head that had low winter precip and a good severe wx season here....1989 and 1995. Other good years like 1998, 2011, and 1997 had high precip in winter. But I'm not sure how predictive these are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 I'm not sure how well winter precip correlates...I'd have to look at all seasons, but I recall two seasons right off the top of my head that had low winter precip and a good severe wx season here....1989 and 1995. Other good years like 1998, 2011, and 1997 had high precip in winter. But I'm not sure how predictive these are. That would be really interesting to look into if there is any correlation at all between winter/early spring precip anomalies and how active the summer convection season is here...at least for the stronger end events we see. I would think though at least one thing you'd like to see is a very dry winter/spring across the southern Plains and portions of the deep south and even Ohio Valley. I actually think there is a slight correlation between this and having a better chance of an EML sustaining itself into the Northeast here...if you have an EML going over a region with very rich moist soils that just adds to the low-level moisture (which is good) but with all the atmospheric mixing that's just going to screw with that dry air in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 If I were storm chasing tomorrow. I would set up shop somewhere right around Topeka KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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