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Countdown to May 1st


weatherwiz

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Other than some marble size hail and rotted maple limbs being blown down, it's not easy to get good severe in SNE. We just don't have the atmospheric variables to support it, like other places to our south and west. Maybe 2-3 times a season we get a good severe outbreak, but that's about it. Personally, I enjoy a tstm with good CG, but even those aren't easy to come by. Different strokes for different folks, but consider yourself lucky to get multiple, good severe events in SNE.

Yep, especially down along the south coast. Storms just usually aren't that impressive. Went to the mountains of New Mexico a while back, now that's an area that has some real storms.

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Well put. I think severe in SNE (epescially Western areas) is no where near as bad as some of the posters here make it out to be. I also don't believe that we used up our "severe quota" for the next 15 years cause of the 6/1/11 event. Just look at 5/29/95, 7/3/97, 5/31/98. Obvisiously not a great chance that we get another big event but I'll be in full severe mode come May 15th.

Agreed

It is funny though because growing up on the shoreline getting a good thunderstorm east of New Haven was virtually impossible. I think I only saw hail once in my life. Living up here in the valley it's a different beast. Just depends on where in the region you are.

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Pretty crazy how we kicked off severe wx season on March 14th. Perhaps from now on I should do my countdowns to March 1st b/c May is too late.

Last night reminded me of the second wave of activity on June 1st. Sometimes the actions needs to wait until the actual support approaches.

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Last night reminded me of the second wave of activity on June 1st. Sometimes the actions needs to wait until the actual support approaches.

Yeah I was actually thinking about this in the shower. Despite the loss of heating the models held onto some decent elevated instability through the night with CAA in the mid levels and the better support was to move through overnight.

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I actually believe this season is going to SUCK. However, if you look back at years in which we had a summer with ENSO neutral following a La Nina winter the years have been pretty decent...there is much more to it than that. I think we will be in a drought by the end of summer...precip departures since winter aren't pretty.

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I actually believe this season is going to SUCK. However, if you look back at years in which we had a summer with ENSO neutral following a La Nina winter the years have been pretty decent...there is much more to it than that. I think we will be in a drought by the end of summer...precip departures since winter aren't pretty.

I'm not sure how well winter precip correlates...I'd have to look at all seasons, but I recall two seasons right off the top of my head that had low winter precip and a good severe wx season here....1989 and 1995. Other good years like 1998, 2011, and 1997 had high precip in winter. But I'm not sure how predictive these are.

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I'm not sure how well winter precip correlates...I'd have to look at all seasons, but I recall two seasons right off the top of my head that had low winter precip and a good severe wx season here....1989 and 1995. Other good years like 1998, 2011, and 1997 had high precip in winter. But I'm not sure how predictive these are.

That would be really interesting to look into if there is any correlation at all between winter/early spring precip anomalies and how active the summer convection season is here...at least for the stronger end events we see.

I would think though at least one thing you'd like to see is a very dry winter/spring across the southern Plains and portions of the deep south and even Ohio Valley. I actually think there is a slight correlation between this and having a better chance of an EML sustaining itself into the Northeast here...if you have an EML going over a region with very rich moist soils that just adds to the low-level moisture (which is good) but with all the atmospheric mixing that's just going to screw with that dry air in the mid levels.

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