weatherwiz Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Severe weather in New England is a waste of time and dead period. Kind of similar to looking at computer models this winter and hoping for any type of significant pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 You're coming to D-block next year? I should actually find out within the month month or so I'm going to assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 77 Days Until May 1st!!!!!! Added the countdown to my sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 77 Days Until May 1st!!!!!! Severe season starts May 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Severe season starts May 15th Severe season starts and ends on June 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Severe season starts May 15th May 1st is an easier date to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Severe season starts and ends on June 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looking forward to the upcoming severe weather season. We always have severe storms in SNE...some towns get more some get less but it will happen. I have read other naysayer's posts (we don't have severe, the season here stinks, etc). Every year is different. How can you shoot the season down if it hasn't even started? How many people have to die before it is comsidered a "good" severe weather day? I think the variety of weather in this area makes it one of the best to live in. Lets see...last year we had crippling snowstorms, hail, tornadoes, floods, a tropical storm, noreasters, record heat, and some even had an earthquake. No haboob...damn. Bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looking forward to the upcoming severe weather season. We always have severe storms in SNE...some towns get more some get less but it will happen. I have read other naysayer's posts (we don't have severe, the season here stinks, etc). Every year is different. How can you shoot the season down if it hasn't even started? How many people have to die before it is comsidered a "good" severe weather day? I think the variety of weather in this area makes it one of the best to live in. Lets see...last year we had crippling snowstorms, hail, tornadoes, floods, a tropical storm, noreasters, record heat, and some even had an earthquake. No haboob...damn. Bring on spring! Your post gave me a pants tent. To answer your question most people on this board only care about weather as it relates to their backyard and with convection and severe wx obviously the chances of seeing severe criteria in any one location is extremely low, therefore, not many people here care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 To answer your question most people on this board only care about weather as it relates to their backyard and with convection and severe wx obviously the chances of seeing severe criteria in any one location is extremely low, therefore, not many people here care. Well put. I think severe in SNE (epescially Western areas) is no where near as bad as some of the posters here make it out to be. I also don't believe that we used up our "severe quota" for the next 15 years cause of the 6/1/11 event. Just look at 5/29/95, 7/3/97, 5/31/98. Obvisiously not a great chance that we get another big event but I'll be in full severe mode come May 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well put. I think severe in SNE (epescially Western areas) is no where near as bad as some of the posters here make it out to be. I also don't believe that we used up our "severe quota" for the next 15 years cause of the 6/1/11 event. Just look at 5/29/95, 7/3/97, 5/31/98. Obvisiously not a great chance that we get another big event but I'll be in full severe mode come May 15th. I don't even care if we don't see another 6/1/11 type event or setup...I just want an active summer with lots of t'storm chances...a summer like 2008 would be really awesome where for a solid 2+ month period we had severe wx like 2-3 days per week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looking forward to the upcoming severe weather season. We always have severe storms in SNE...some towns get more some get less but it will happen. I have read other naysayer's posts (we don't have severe, the season here stinks, etc). Every year is different. How can you shoot the season down if it hasn't even started? How many people have to die before it is comsidered a "good" severe weather day? I think the variety of weather in this area makes it one of the best to live in. Lets see...last year we had crippling snowstorms, hail, tornadoes, floods, a tropical storm, noreasters, record heat, and some even had an earthquake. No haboob...damn. Bring on spring! Other than some marble size hail and rotted maple limbs being blown down, it's not easy to get good severe in SNE. We just don't have the atmospheric variables to support it, like other places to our south and west. Maybe 2-3 times a season we get a good severe outbreak, but that's about it. Personally, I enjoy a tstm with good CG, but even those aren't easy to come by. Different strokes for different folks, but consider yourself lucky to get multiple, good severe events in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Last year was the first year since 2001 I did not see hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Last year was the first year since 2001 I did not see hail. Despite it being the long range gfs, this is pretty schweet for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Other than some marble size hail and rotted maple limbs being blown down, it's not easy to get good severe in SNE. We just don't have the atmospheric variables to support it, like other places to our south and west. Maybe 2-3 times a season we get a good severe outbreak, but that's about it. Personally, I enjoy a tstm with good CG, but even those aren't easy to come by. Different strokes for different folks, but consider yourself lucky to get multiple, good severe events in SNE. I agree...it is not easy getting the right variables here most of the time. No one is more frustrated than I when storms form in NY just to die after crossing into SNE. I am happy when we get a good old thunderstorm. I think for me just knowing that it CAN happen helps me get through the spring/summer. With today's technology we now know when we are getting storm...and when they miss us or never form. Maybe that is part of the feeling we rarely get good severe weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Last year was the first year since 2001 I did not see hail. Last year was the first time I ever had 3 hail events in one day including some golf ball sized hail. The storm at night was amazing. 6/1 was quite a day in C Mass. That's the thing with ANY severe weather event in any state...location...location...location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The storm that I drove threw in Northampton on 6/1 cracked my windshield largest hail ive ever seen then to drive back and have a tornado in front of me was the adrenaline rush of my life Last year was the first time I ever had 3 hail events in one day including some golf ball sized hail. The storm at night was amazing. 6/1 was quite a day in C Mass. That's the thing with ANY severe weather event in any state...location...location...location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Anyone start the 2012 Volcano Activity thread yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Anyone start the 2012 Volcano Activity thread yet? http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2011/10/02/anak-krakatau1-raised-to-highest-alert-status-quakes-are-now-continous-warn-officials Start with this one........... It's only been 129 years since the las good season......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Despite it being the long range gfs, this is pretty schweet for the SE Definitely some signs of some potential for some activity down in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Maybe we can start it on April 15th this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Maybe we can start it on April 15th this year. Bee-u-tee-full!!! Let's hope the April - September outlooks are exactly the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX COAST...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST STATES... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX ON SATURDAY AS A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE TX COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION OR A LINEAR MCS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT 12Z MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS THE MCS MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TX SATURDAY...A WELL-DEVELOPED 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS JET PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL-LINE IN SE LA SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 65 KT RANGE AND 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 300 TO 400 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE OR WITH DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND IN THE MS DELTA WHERE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. THIS SETUP MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AS A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SQUALL-LINE WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE A PERSISTENT WIND DAMAGE THREAT FROM SRN LA LATE SATURDAY MORNING EXTENDING ENEWD TO CNTRL GA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS INSTABILITY. IF MORE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POSSIBILITY JUSTIFIES A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LINEAR MCS. ..BROYLES.. 02/17/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Weenies getting closer to me heinie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 3 more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 expect a few of these setups in the next three/four months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 El nino summers like this upcoming one coming of back to back ninas tend to lead to horriffic severe wx seasons in the Northeast. Many times you can go the whole summer without even seeing a t-storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 El nino summers like this upcoming one coming of back to back ninas tend to lead to horriffic severe wx seasons in the NortheaIst. Many times you can go the whole summer without even seeing a t-storm Wtf? One, the data set is way to small to make that judgement and two, both the years that fit your criteria, 1972 and 1976 actually were solid yeas severe wise here....I think NH had 8 tornadoes in 1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thankfully it's Spring and I can begin contributing here. no one should be looking for another 1 in 50 or 100 year event with a major deadly event. a year with several smaller events with f1-f2 (1970s and '50s?) would be just fine. On another note, after the warm-down next week (highs near or just below avg), it looks like we rocket into the 50s 60s by early March with the continued southeast ridge and little blocking. btw time sens, nah-nah....more warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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