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February 3-6 Plains/Midwest Storm


okie333

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1016 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND ONLY MADE

MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST. 00Z UPPER AIR ANLYS INDCD 110

KT H3 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SW KS AT KDDC. H5 LOW WAS

LOCATED OVER NW KS AT 00Z WITH HEIGHT FALLS OF 40 TO 50 M PRETTY

WIDESPREAD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE 850 MB

ANALYSIS INDCD THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE RUNNING

ABOUT 2-3 C COOLER THAN THE 6 HOUR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z MODELS.

THE LOW WAS LOCATED DOWN IN SOUTHERN KS WITH STRONG MOIST

ADVECTION NOTED FM AR THRU MO INTO IA.

STRONG PV ADVECTION JUST NOW MOVG INTO SOUTHERN NE FROM NORTHERN

KS. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS STG FORCING IS RIPE FOR

WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH H7 TO H5 LAPSE RATES OF 7

C/KM...AND WE DID HAVE A REPORT OF LIGHTNING IN SE NEB EARLIER

THIS EVENING. PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS AROUND H7

HAS ALLOW FOR MAINLY -SN/IP OVER NE NEB THIS EVENING WITH

ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AN INCH...BUT THIS AREA APPEARS TO E SLOWLY

WEAKENING AS NEW DEVELOPMENT GETS GOING SOUTHERN NEB AND NRN KS.

WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS

PRECIP RAPIDLY EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTS NWD.

PRECIP TYPE CONTS TO BE A CONCERN BUT GIVEN TEH COOLER 00Z KOAX

SOUNDING...AND AMDAR SOUNDINGS EARLIER...FEEL A PRETTY QUICK

SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR ONCE THE MORE STEADY PRECIP

ARRIVES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BIE TO PMV TO RDK. WE THEN STILL

EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SAT MORNING

GIVEN THE FORCING AND WEAK STATIC STABILITY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED

FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV...WE CERTAINLY STILL EXPECT SOME

BANDING TO THE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. WE DID BUMP UP SNOW AMOUNTS

OVERNIGHT IN THE EXPECTED BAND OF BEST UVV...BUT WE ALSO REDUCED

SNOW AMOUNTS A TOUCH ON SAT MORNING. OVERALL THIS INCREASED STORM

TOTALS INTO THE 8-12 INCH RANGE FROM AROUND SEWARD TO FREMONT. WE

WILL LIKELY SEE THE DRYSLOT MAKE INTO SE NEB OVERNIGHT AND SO

LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT OR ON SAT MORNING WITH THE

MAIN BAND TO THE NORTH...BUT WILL LEAVE THE ADVRY GOING ATTM. NO

OTHER CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BOUSTEAD

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thanks for the update's. i'm sure alot of the snow starved weenies on the board are dropping in here to see how this one performs or perhaps live vicariously thru areas that are snowing

BI....where is your general location .....SE neb? (Edit...N platte) jeezus i think i get screwed sometimes ...judging by the radar's storm's total precip ...i hope you live on the Northern edge/side of town. looks like N side of town got 1.25 qpf SE side of town got .25 WOW

Yeah haha, huge differences across the area. Head to northern Lincoln county and they prolly saw 10+ round one. Round two is going to put some areas in northern Lincoln near 20". Highest report thus far was 17" in Ringgold north of here.

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NWS just upped amounts for lincoln to 5-9 tonight with 2-4 tomorrow **west omaha as well!**

Changeover yet? Sounding from 00Z...I would expect full changeover very soon. This system is fully dependent upon adiabatic cooling via forced mass convergence/ascent for its cooling. 5-9" seems like a pretty good call. Lots of compacting occurring with this heavy snow..ratios are not impressive.

post-999-0-85288300-1328334131.gif

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Quick update: 06Z SmartCast is zoning in on the Lincoln-Grand Island-Offutt, NE zones, with snow accumulations through 17Z from 12-14". Will be interested to see if that holds true. Seeing a few hours from 7-16Z of 1" Snowfall rates, with isolated pockets of up to 2.1" per hour in a few locales. In addition winds will be right around 30mph with gust to 35mph in some locations. Date updated @ http://smartwxmodel.net

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Full changeover in Lincoln NE for at least an hour. Already a good inch of very heavy wet snow on the roads... such little traffic now that the roads are already hazardous - and Front wheel drive has a tough go especially on hills, and speeds greater than 25 or 30 has shaky braking.

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Still snowing here south of Denver. Been snowing without a break for about 31 hours now. Earlier measured 30 inches IMBY and think we've accumulated about 2-3 inches since then. Expecting another 2-3 inches more tonight? Will provide total snowfall tomorrow afternoon when the snow should finally subside. Drifts are much higher. The deck in the back of my house is about 5 feet above ground level and the snow has accumulated so it looks like the gap doesnt even exist. My dog actually thought it was solid ground and walked right off the deck into the snow drift. She immediately sank and I had to "rescue" her. Funny stuff.

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Still snowing here south of Denver. Been snowing without a break for about 31 hours now. Earlier measured 30 inches IMBY and think we've accumulated about 2-3 inches since then. Expecting another 2-3 inches more tonight? Will provide total snowfall tomorrow afternoon when the snow should finally subside. Drifts are much higher. The deck in the back of my house is about 5 feet above ground level and the snow has accumulated so it looks like the gap doesnt even exist. My dog actually thought it was solid ground and walked right off the deck into the snow drift. She immediately sank and I had to "rescue" her. Funny stuff.

Sounds like you're the big winner of people on this board. I don't have an official number, but I know it's darn high (probably closer to 2 feet than your 3). Let's just say that when I got back from the Nuggets game, the front of my SUV was pushing snow in front of it like a snowplow in the apartment complex lot. I moved here this summer from east TN, and east TX before that, so the most I had ever seen at one time was ~10". This is awesome!

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TSSN near Kearney and Utica, NE...

KEAR 040755Z 01024G27KT 1SM OVC004 00/M01 A3020 RMK AO1 TSB20E35

KEAR 040735Z 01024G30KT 1SM OVC004 00/00 A3020 RMK AO1 TSB20E35

Slightly jealous since we never got into the moist conveyor belt of this storm (i.e., convective banding and TSSN), but I can't complain. It is nice (and odd) to see a wintry wonderland outside. This storm keeps this winter from being the most pathetic and futile in the history of my life.

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Still snowing here south of Denver. Been snowing without a break for about 31 hours now. Earlier measured 30 inches IMBY and think we've accumulated about 2-3 inches since then. Expecting another 2-3 inches more tonight? Will provide total snowfall tomorrow afternoon when the snow should finally subside. Drifts are much higher. The deck in the back of my house is about 5 feet above ground level and the snow has accumulated so it looks like the gap doesnt even exist. My dog actually thought it was solid ground and walked right off the deck into the snow drift. She immediately sank and I had to "rescue" her. Funny stuff.

That is pretty epic. I hope you can get some pics of that. Where exactly are you located S of Denver? Are you along the Divide?

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Quick update: 06Z SmartCast is zoning in on the Lincoln-Grand Island-Offutt, NE zones, with snow accumulations through 17Z from 12-14". Will be interested to see if that holds true. Seeing a few hours from 7-16Z of 1" Snowfall rates, with isolated pockets of up to 2.1" per hour in a few locales. In addition winds will be right around 30mph with gust to 35mph in some locations. Date updated @ http://smartwxmodel.net

my ex is from Bellevue, NE...his dad works at Offutt AFB...anyone know how things are? looked at radar and it seems like that area is socked in...

so does anyone here have any pics they could post or any snow totals to report?

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Here in Lincoln, NE I've heard people talk about at least 10 inches in some places already. Bellevue doesn't seem that bad yet, I think because they are further east - I was able to find this storm report on NWS local storm reports. It's that type of snow you can form a snowball right away

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

836 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0836 AM SNOW BELLEVUE 41.16N 95.92W

02/04/2012 M5.2 INCH SARPY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

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The deformation zone has pretty much set up along I-80 between Lincoln and Omaha, so a good 3 to 4 inches over the next 9 to 12 hours should be an easy bet. If that will actually accumulate or just pack down the snow is the question - as this stuff is very high water content. Tapering off to light snow as the 500 mb low ever so slowly moves east and southeast - looks like it's about to start doing that as it is starting to get smashed form the north on water vapor imagery

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a bit of a side note this morning in southern MN. due to all the moisture laying around on the top-side of this storm, not only did we have clouds, but we actually got a trace of "sublimation" snowflakes up here. they were mainly needle-like. but they're definitely from the fog we had, not synoptically driven events down south.

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000

NWUS53 KOAX 041733

LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

1132 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1128 AM SNOW 4 S LINCOLN 40.76N 96.67W

02/04/2012 M11.8 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR 30TH AND OLD CHENEY.

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Impressive snowfall totals from Colorado, where the almost 48 hr snowstorm is finally over with:

...COLORADO...

PINECLIFFE 4 SSE 50.5

BLACK HAWK 3 N 48.0

JAMESTOWN 3 W 45.2

EVERGREEN 3 S 36.0

CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 34.5

CONIFER 3 W 31.0

NEDERLAND 4 ENE 30.8

BUCKHORN MOUNTAIN 1 E 27.0

LIVERMORE 8 W 27.0

ROLLINSVILLE 27.0

WARD 4.6 NE 26.5

GENESEE 25.0

BELLVUE 4.7 W 24.1

CONIFER 3 WSW 24.0

CALHAN 5 NE 23.5

HORSETOOTH MOUNTAIN 3.2 NNW 22.0

MONUMENT 1 ENE 21.5

NEDERLAND 4.2 E 21.2

BOULDER 21.0

EVERGREEN 4 S 20.4

BOULDER 2 SSE 19.0

DENVER 5.3 SW 17.3

AIR FORCE ACADEMY 5 NE 13.0

ESTES PARK 3 S 11.1

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Still snowing here south of Denver. Been snowing without a break for about 31 hours now. Earlier measured 30 inches IMBY and think we've accumulated about 2-3 inches since then. Expecting another 2-3 inches more tonight? Will provide total snowfall tomorrow afternoon when the snow should finally subside. Drifts are much higher. The deck in the back of my house is about 5 feet above ground level and the snow has accumulated so it looks like the gap doesnt even exist. My dog actually thought it was solid ground and walked right off the deck into the snow drift. She immediately sank and I had to "rescue" her. Funny stuff.

On Thursday night, at 11:00PM I went out to shovel. We had 5" at that point. Yesterday morning: 7". Yesterday afternoon: 8". Yesterday night: 8.5"

I saw snow for over 28 hours. We had snow from 6:00PM Thursday until maybe after 10:00 or 11:00PM yesterday. In the mid-day yesterday it was pretty light, but there was always some snowflakes. It was snowing heavier at 8:30PM last night. I think I got 8.5" in my yard. We had winds of 15-20mph at times, but not the whole time.

At the CSU weather station, they had 9.1" as of 7:00PM last night, and 1.6" since then, so 9.7" was the snow total. Their snow depth was 8.9"

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