prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Liking this one for the plains as it doesn't look promising for once it crosses the ole miss. MN gets squat...hoping for a big storm soon, rain or snow as i don't give a damn as we need moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 looks like west central kansas gets what 3-4 feet? lol some continuity tommorrow would be a treat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 looks like west central kansas gets what 3-4 feet? lol some continuity tommorrow would be a treat qpf for Goodland, KS FRI 00Z 03-FEB 9.1 6.9 1013 51 80 0.01 558 547 FRI 06Z 03-FEB 2.2 0.2 1019 97 99 0.21 557 542 FRI 12Z 03-FEB -0.2 -2.0 1019 98 100 0.53 555 539 FRI 18Z 03-FEB -0.5 -3.0 1020 97 100 0.46 555 539 SAT 00Z 04-FEB -0.1 -2.5 1021 98 100 0.49 554 537 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -0.8 -3.4 1023 97 100 0.49 553 534 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -2.9 -5.8 1026 95 100 0.41 552 531 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -3.0 -6.4 1030 91 99 0.20 553 530 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -3.5 -6.7 1031 92 99 0.09 554 529 SUN 06Z 05-FEB -3.9 -7.0 1033 89 95 0.04 555 529 SUN 12Z 05-FEB -5.0 -7.5 1033 89 98 0.02 555 528 SUN 18Z 05-FEB -4.5 -7.7 1034 86 95 0.02 555 527 MON 00Z 06-FEB -5.6 -7.6 1033 88 96 0.03 553 527 MON 06Z 06-FEB -8.1 -6.7 1032 84 100 0.01 553 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Updated QPF forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It is the NAM, but the 12Z is completely phased through 42 hours. First run that has been phased fully with the secondary wave off the Baja California coast. will be interesting to see what the non-hydro NAM will look like with the Gulf fully tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It is the NAM, but the 12Z is completely phased through 42 hours. First run that has been phased fully with the secondary wave off the Baja California coast. will be interesting to see what the non-hydro NAM will look like with the Gulf fully tapped. 12z euro has jumped north again from 0z and now LBF gets nailed...we expect lots of pics, baro. LBF FRI 12Z 03-FEB 0.2 -0.3 1024 69 86 0.01 558 538 FRI 18Z 03-FEB 2.0 -1.0 1026 61 99 0.02 559 538 SAT 00Z 04-FEB 2.9 -1.1 1025 82 100 0.04 559 539 SAT 06Z 04-FEB 0.7 -2.3 1025 98 99 0.18 559 538 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -1.0 -4.1 1025 94 100 0.41 556 536 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -1.9 -4.8 1027 95 100 0.41 556 534 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -2.3 -5.4 1028 96 87 0.14 556 533 SUN 06Z 05-FEB -1.8 -5.2 1029 96 93 0.08 555 532 SUN 12Z 05-FEB -2.4 -5.9 1029 96 96 0.05 554 531 SUN 18Z 05-FEB -2.5 -6.6 1029 91 94 0.02 553 530 DEN FRI 00Z 03-FEB 4.4 5.5 1015 39 82 0.01 556 543 FRI 06Z 03-FEB -0.2 0.3 1022 63 100 0.03 556 538 FRI 12Z 03-FEB -2.9 -2.5 1025 89 99 0.28 554 533 FRI 18Z 03-FEB -3.6 -3.4 1030 90 98 0.31 555 531 SAT 00Z 04-FEB -3.9 -3.4 1030 91 100 0.24 556 532 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -4.1 -3.6 1031 91 100 0.19 556 532 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -4.4 -3.9 1031 92 100 0.25 556 531 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -4.6 -4.3 1033 90 100 0.19 556 529 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -4.8 -4.4 1033 91 99 0.10 556 529 SUN 06Z 05-FEB -5.9 -5.2 1033 93 93 0.04 556 529 SUN 12Z 05-FEB -7.1 -6.1 1033 93 78 0.01 555 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 that is for LBF. DEN data via euro FRI 06Z 03-FEB -1.2 -1.0 1025 80 95 0.04 555 535 FRI 12Z 03-FEB -3.3 -3.2 1028 80 100 0.11 554 532 FRI 18Z 03-FEB -3.9 -3.6 1030 80 100 0.29 556 531 SAT 00Z 04-FEB -3.9 -3.4 1030 88 99 0.34 556 532 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -4.2 -3.8 1032 91 100 0.35 556 531 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -4.6 -4.2 1033 92 99 0.29 556 530 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -4.6 -4.4 1035 90 99 0.15 558 530 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -5.0 -4.4 1034 90 98 0.05 558 530 SUN 06Z 05-FEB -8.7 -5.2 1035 95 91 0.01 558 530 so is that 1.4" of water content for Denver? Just wondering, since I know some people who drive down there every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 so is that 1.4" of water content for Denver? Just wondering, since I know some people who drive down there every day. yes, 1.63 total qpf for Denver via euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dang. That would be great. Big difference from last night's forecast. HPC looks like it's thinking 4-8 inches but even that would be very nice. It's been ugly as heck the past few days, and the prairie dogs are thinking spring. Is the Euro as much of a lock here the past couple years as it seems to have been for the Northeast? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Interesting now... HPC and the surrounding NWS offices to the east are getting all excited about this one for eastern CO west to the foothills, while BOU is playing it safe for the moment till the models come together better. Wonder who will end up right. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Interesting now... HPC and the surrounding NWS offices to the east are getting all excited about this one for eastern CO west to the foothills, while BOU is playing it safe for the moment till the models come together better. Wonder who will end up right. Thoughts? It is a tricky situation for the Front Range as the mid level low needs to rapidly close off and deepen as the system tracks eastward or the mid level flow will have a strong downslope flow component. The ECMWF type solution would be ideal. NAM/GFS nasomuch. FWIW I am leaning CMC/ECMWF given the incredible feedback potential we have here...which is odd as the EC/GFS have switched places with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z euro has jumped north again from 0z and now LBF gets nailed...we expect lots of pics, baro. LBF FRI 12Z 03-FEB 0.2 -0.3 1024 69 86 0.01 558 538 FRI 18Z 03-FEB 2.0 -1.0 1026 61 99 0.02 559 538 SAT 00Z 04-FEB 2.9 -1.1 1025 82 100 0.04 559 539 SAT 06Z 04-FEB 0.7 -2.3 1025 98 99 0.18 559 538 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -1.0 -4.1 1025 94 100 0.41 556 536 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -1.9 -4.8 1027 95 100 0.41 556 534 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -2.3 -5.4 1028 96 87 0.14 556 533 SUN 06Z 05-FEB -1.8 -5.2 1029 96 93 0.08 555 532 SUN 12Z 05-FEB -2.4 -5.9 1029 96 96 0.05 554 531 SUN 18Z 05-FEB -2.5 -6.6 1029 91 94 0.02 553 530 DEN FRI 00Z 03-FEB 4.4 5.5 1015 39 82 0.01 556 543 FRI 06Z 03-FEB -0.2 0.3 1022 63 100 0.03 556 538 FRI 12Z 03-FEB -2.9 -2.5 1025 89 99 0.28 554 533 FRI 18Z 03-FEB -3.6 -3.4 1030 90 98 0.31 555 531 SAT 00Z 04-FEB -3.9 -3.4 1030 91 100 0.24 556 532 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -4.1 -3.6 1031 91 100 0.19 556 532 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -4.4 -3.9 1031 92 100 0.25 556 531 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -4.6 -4.3 1033 90 100 0.19 556 529 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -4.8 -4.4 1033 91 99 0.10 556 529 SUN 06Z 05-FEB -5.9 -5.2 1033 93 93 0.04 556 529 SUN 12Z 05-FEB -7.1 -6.1 1033 93 78 0.01 555 529 I am not booking this event yet, still potential for a bust here. My biggest worry is a farther S track and/or the potential for significant Latent Heat Release and the development of a low level PV anomaly influencing the WCB flow field. The upper low needs to deepen hard and fast...and at the right time or this could end east and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 So.. I'm just becoming alert to this threat... Getting out of DEN on Friday AM... bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 So.. I'm just becoming alert to this threat... Getting out of DEN on Friday AM... bad? given what the 00z runs are saying as of this moment, early am may be marginal. but if not departing right near sunrise, i'd maybe plan to be there until saturday. we'll see what the later runs come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Started a svr thread for this system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It is a tricky situation for the Front Range as the mid level low needs to rapidly close off and deepen as the system tracks eastward or the mid level flow will have a strong downslope flow component. The ECMWF type solution would be ideal. NAM/GFS nasomuch. FWIW I am leaning CMC/ECMWF given the incredible feedback potential we have here...which is odd as the EC/GFS have switched places with this event. I am not booking this event yet, still potential for a bust here. My biggest worry is a farther S track and/or the potential for significant Latent Heat Release and the development of a low level PV anomaly influencing the WCB flow field. The upper low needs to deepen hard and fast...and at the right time or this could end east and fast. Very cool- thanks Baro. Learning something here...in New England downsloping matters little unless you're in the CT River valley, though failure to close off an ULL still means "out to sea"or just a quick hitting inch or two ... here, "sea" means Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 given what the 00z runs are saying as of this moment, early am may be marginal. but if not departing right near sunrise, i'd maybe plan to be there until saturday. we'll see what the later runs come up with. DIA itself tends to be great in the snow, with its de-icing assembly line and runways that are far enough apart to allow parallel IFR operations, but airlines do things like cancel flights anyway sometimes to avoid impacts on the rest of their routes. Give it a day or so. If the EC verifies you might want to be renting cross-country skis for the weekend, as the plains will be getting all the fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 DIA itself tends to be great in the snow, with its de-icing assembly line and runways that are far enough apart to allow parallel IFR operations, but airlines do things like cancel flights anyway sometimes to avoid impacts on the rest of their routes. Give it a day or so. If the EC verifies you might want to be renting cross-country skis for the weekend, as the plains will be getting all the fresh snow. never flew there personally, or was up at 5000ft. heard the place is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 0z euro still on the north track taking the upper low thru MN...gives msp 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 just took a closer look at the 00Z models and here's what I am noticing is causing the major difference in the solutions, going west to east, up to t+84: the 2nd trailing vort center to this system. the Canadian Global is the most compact between the trailer and the lead low, while the most spread out is the GFS, with the euro and NAM in the middle the 700 center is the most cut-off on the canadian global, followed by the euro, NAM, and the GFS is least cut-off SLP by t=84: Canadian global 1008, 1012 for the GFS, ~1013 ECMWF, 1010 on the NAM and take a look at the approxamite warm front coming down on the back side of the damming high near the southern trans-canada highway in Ontario. as well as the pressures in James Bay. the vast majority of the models have the bubble-like warm front leaning down in almost pretty standard fare. but on the GFS, you actually have a low in James Bay that trowals out and hooks onto that warm front near the Lake of the Woods. this extra top-side trowal is actually flattening out the 500, 700 , and surface ridge on the top side a lot more than the other models, and maybe even weakening the surface ridge. This weaker ridge could lead to the low going a bit further north on a particular model. i know that was getting a bit picky with everything, but those points of emphasis are looking like the main difference right now in how this system is reacting in placement and when it starts to open up or remain closed, imho. my first guess would be to discard most of the GFS scenario and probably go more of a Canadian global/Euro blend. but we can see as time gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 DIA itself tends to be great in the snow, with its de-icing assembly line and runways that are far enough apart to allow parallel IFR operations, but airlines do things like cancel flights anyway sometimes to avoid impacts on the rest of their routes. Give it a day or so. If the EC verifies you might want to be renting cross-country skis for the weekend, as the plains will be getting all the fresh snow. That's been my experience at DIA. I have landed under some surprising conditions. What I have going for me is that I think JetBlue is highly incented to get their planes in there and out. They have full planes going from BOS and heading straight back. Oh well, we'll see. Flight out is 10:40 AM MT Friday. --- I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=42.367703,-71.016073 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Great Work....I have noticed that the NAM closes that nothern feature of the H5 low. I think CO gets smashed!!! Denver looks to get around 6-12" (IMO) It wouldn't surprise me if some people see blizzard conditions and over a FOOT of snow. just took a closer look at the 00Z models and here's what I am noticing is causing the major difference in the solutions, going west to east, up to t+84: the 2nd trailing vort center to this system. the Canadian Global is the most compact between the trailer and the lead low, while the most spread out is the GFS, with the euro and NAM in the middle the 700 center is the most cut-off on the canadian global, followed by the euro, NAM, and the GFS is least cut-off SLP by t=84: Canadian global 1008, 1012 for the GFS, ~1013 ECMWF, 1010 on the NAM and take a look at the approxamite warm front coming down on the back side of the damming high near the southern trans-canada highway in Ontario. as well as the pressures in James Bay. the vast majority of the models have the bubble-like warm front leaning down in almost pretty standard fare. but on the GFS, you actually have a low in James Bay that trowals out and hooks onto that warm front near the Lake of the Woods. this extra top-side trowal is actually flattening out the 500, 700 , and surface ridge on the top side a lot more than the other models, and maybe even weakening the surface ridge. This weaker ridge could lead to the low going a bit further north on a particular model. i know that was getting a bit picky with everything, but those points of emphasis are looking like the main difference right now in how this system is reacting in placement and when it starts to open up or remain closed, imho. my first guess would be to discard most of the GFS scenario and probably go more of a Canadian global/Euro blend. but we can see as time gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 looking at the 12Z runs this morning, both the nam and the GFS are starting to latch onto the idea of the weakness being generated with that surface trough based in James and Hudson bays at t+72. it'll be interesting what the euro and canadian global are saying on that scenario. maybe the GFS was onto something? or are both models dreaming? (edit below) took a look at the 12Z canadian global. it's stronger with the other frontal boundary coming down James and Hudson Bays than the last run. it's not building an all-out trowal to the milder prairie airmass like the GFS and NAM, but the trens is looking like that weakness is starting to affect the system more, as the system's look in MO is appearing a bit more like the GFS than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z ukmet looks like it's following the euro with the further north placement...be interesting to see if the euro holds on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 So.. I'm just becoming alert to this threat... Getting out of DEN on Friday AM... bad? You may have serious troubles trying to drive there and/or park there. Looks like this will be a big one for Devner. Possibly 5" or for my location, based on the 9z SREF. I don't think Denver has seen many storms over 7" in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ucbedge Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I live in Denver and fly into/out of DIA frequently....most recently being during the 12/22/11 snowstorm. It was nearly whiteout conditions at the airport during that snowstorm. From the terminal, you couldnt see the rear of parked planes. Yet the airport was still functioning, although with sizable delays. From my experience, there are two things you have to be concerned about: 1) Driving to/from DIA. Driving Pena Blvd during a snowstorm can be scary, esp if there's any wind. Your flight may be unaffected, but you'll find it difficult or impossible to actually get to the airport to catch your flight. 2) Flight operations are open, but extremely delayed. During the 12/22 snowstorm, we sat on the tarmac waiting to be de-iced/takeoff for 2.5 hours. This means if you have connections (like I did) you might miss them. Good luck! That's been my experience at DIA. I have landed under some surprising conditions. What I have going for me is that I think JetBlue is highly incented to get their planes in there and out. They have full planes going from BOS and heading straight back. Oh well, we'll see. Flight out is 10:40 AM MT Friday. --- I am here: http://maps.google.c...7703,-71.016073 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Thanks. I got a Yukon XL from Hertz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This is why I don't book events this winter...when something can go wrong it will. Farther south and more progressive...double whammy here. Oh well, will still be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am just going to have to post this total snowfall image because it shows over 18" for Denver. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This is why I don't book events this winter...when something can go wrong it will. Farther south and more progressive...double whammy here. Oh well, will still be fun to watch. Hm? Not having easy access to models or time to look at them today. Any agreement or are we still reaching for the Tums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.