okie333 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Thought I'd make a thread about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Gah, jinxed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Just wondering if the cold air will actually be in place for it to snow in Oklahoma. We should have the moisture, but this looks to be about our only chance of a decent winter storm. I hope we can get a little colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Gah, jinxed! I would be quite OK with the bullseye being in Jenks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 LOL..I live at 51st and Harvard...I would be fine with Jenks being the bullseye:) LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Just wondering if the cold air will actually be in place for it to snow in Oklahoma. We should have the moisture, but this looks to be about our only chance of a decent winter storm. I hope we can get a little colder! 00z GFS says probably not. We'll see though, I haven't looked at the full temp profile and everything because it's still pretty far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 12ZGFS says NE will get the blizzard...so much for it being a southern storm...time to get depressed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yeah looks like another cold rain for us. :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I am watching, closely. 12Z GGEM had a freak dream run for portions of NE into the Front Range. These have a tendency to dig farther S than progged, however, hence why I am not buying the GGEM/GFS yet given the latest ECMWF solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I am watching, closely. 12Z GGEM had a freak dream run for portions of NE into the Front Range. These have a tendency to dig farther S than progged, however, hence why I am not buying the GGEM/GFS yet given the latest ECMWF solutions. Certainly an interesting situation, and one with the potential to give someone some pretty impressive snowfall totals. It seems like the strength of the +PNA ridge and timing of the ridge wave-breaking (fold-over ridge scenario) will have significant ramifications as to where and how long this storm system cuts off. The way I see it, the ridge will be "shielding" the cut-off low from any kickers, while some fairly impressive baroclincity fuels warm-air advection type precip out ahead of the low. At this point, things can still easily go wrong. If the ridge does not fold over quickly enough, the cutoff will become re-absorbed by the jet before heavy snow can accumulate. On the other hand, if the trough digs too far south, it quickly moderates in a warmer airmass, the T-gradient diminishes, and snow only falls over the higher terrain of S CO and NM. The 12Z GFS would be ideal for the western 2/3 of NE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 12Z Euro is ugly. Keeps the trough an open, positively tilted wave, then finally cuts it off too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 FINAL... MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE 12Z/30 GUIDANCE WAS JUST AS CHAOTIC AS THE 00Z/30 CYCLE...WITH NO MODEL TO MODEL NOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. AT LEAST THE 12Z/30 GEFS MEAN WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE MANUAL BLEND...INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY DAY 5. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. Edit to add my post from Adam's Medium Range thread on the main page: The HPC has a lot of interest in the Pacific at this time. And possible additional G-IV/C-130 missions has been tasked as well as the 2 C-130 missions from Alaska. NOUS42 KNHC 301730 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST MON 30 JANUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 31/1100Z JANUARY TO 01/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-061 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/0000Z B. AFXXX 09WSC TRACK55 C. 31/1830Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 01/0600Z FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/1200Z B. NOAA9 10WSC TRACK55 C. 01/0730Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 01/1800Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/0000Z. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/1200Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 lol Perfect! Now we only need this to shift 600 miles to the SE and we're in business. That's not asking too much is it! When you can't beat em, be sarcastic. Dayum, this sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 18z GFS continues the dumping on NE and Baro country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 18z GFS continues the dumping on NE and Baro country. The ggem dumps over 2.50 qpf on baro but he's waiting for the euro to cave to the gfs before he gets pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I might be the first person on this board to see flakes from this storm. I hope it's over an inch. The 18z GFS and 12z GFS show different scenarios for snowfall, with the 18z showing a large snowfall for the Colorado north plains. 12z GFS shows the main heavy snowfall will be in north central Nebraska. 12z GFS and 18z GFS both deepen the 500mb low at the CO/KS border at 12z-18z Friday. So I am still wondering as to the reason for the big differences between the QPF. It must be on some maps I haven't looked at yet. Wasn't it just a few days ago that it looked like the models showed the bad weather action would shift to the Ohio Valley and Colorado was in a huge ridge? Well the huge ridge may have to wait for a blizzard-like trough first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z GFS continues the dumping on NE and Baro country. The ggem dumps over 2.50 qpf on baro but he's waiting for the euro to cave to the gfs before he gets pumped. I am actually quite excited about this threat...first legit real winter threat here in months. And for once, the GOM is actually wide open. It is really going to come down to how rapidly the eastern Pacific Ridge builds in behind this wave...and the intensity of the lead PV anomaly ejecting into the plains. We need both to be right given the overall positive tilt nature to the mean trough. Given the track record of this year, both of those happening at the same time are slim. ECMWF, even though it has not been handling the overall evolution very well, still suggests a southern track. Even with the GGEm/GFS solutions, I won't get too excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 is this storm going to do anyting in NM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 is this storm going to do anyting in NM? Northern NM is in the same boat as much of the remainder of the region...it is highly dependent on the strength of the lead PV anomaly and how rapid the deepening is. Given the incredible moist fetch off the GOM, there is going to be significant positive feedback potential, but it is dependent on that anomaly. GFS/GGEM would support a defo band into the northern NM region whereas a weaker solution like the NAM/ECMWF would be high elevation upslope only...wind elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The overall track on the GFS went pretty well south with the ULL/sfc low but still a great hit for NE, great trajectories coming off the gulf for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 0z GGEM went south also, baro still does well but MN gets screwed again...i'm glad i didn't get excited on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The overall track on the GFS went pretty well south with the ULL/sfc low but still a great hit for NE, great trajectories coming off the gulf for sure. From the looks of it the CMC took a nosedive south too. Just as I expected. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Northern NM is in the same boat as much of the remainder of the region...it is highly dependent on the strength of the lead PV anomaly and how rapid the deepening is. Given the incredible moist fetch off the GOM, there is going to be significant positive feedback potential, but it is dependent on that anomaly. GFS/GGEM would support a defo band into the northern NM region whereas a weaker solution like the NAM/ECMWF would be high elevation upslope only...wind elsewhere. thanks, i'm assuming this would be around feb 2nd for my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 My gosh the ECMWF just caved in dramatic fashion. Blasts the Front Range with the biggest snowstorm of the winter. NW KS gets wiped off the map. I am throwing all weather caution into the wind and getting excited for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am actually quite excited about this threat...first legit real winter threat here in months. And for once, the GOM is actually wide open. It is really going to come down to how rapidly the eastern Pacific Ridge builds in behind this wave...and the intensity of the lead PV anomaly ejecting into the plains. We need both to be right given the overall positive tilt nature to the mean trough. Given the track record of this year, both of those happening at the same time are slim. ECMWF, even though it has not been handling the overall evolution very well, still suggests a southern track. Even with the GGEm/GFS solutions, I won't get too excited yet. euro caved to the ggem/gfs. LBF FRI 00Z 03-FEB 5.3 4.0 1016 66 92 0.01 558 544 FRI 06Z 03-FEB 1.7 1.0 1022 87 98 0.02 558 540 FRI 12Z 03-FEB -0.2 -0.8 1024 92 93 0.07 558 538 FRI 18Z 03-FEB 1.2 -2.1 1026 81 100 0.08 559 538 SAT 00Z 04-FEB 1.5 -2.1 1025 87 100 0.08 559 538 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -0.6 -4.3 1027 78 95 0.07 558 536 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -2.6 -5.3 1029 89 98 0.19 556 533 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -2.8 -5.7 1031 88 100 0.27 556 531 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -2.2 -5.7 1031 81 100 0.10 556 531 SUN 06Z 05-FEB -2.8 -6.3 1033 82 100 0.04 556 530 SUN 12Z 05-FEB -4.1 -6.0 1033 79 99 0.03 556 530 SUN 18Z 05-FEB -2.9 -6.1 1034 77 100 0.03 556 529 MON 00Z 06-FEB -4.0 -5.0 1030 71 98 0.01 554 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 euro caved to the ggem/gfs. FRI 00Z 03-FEB 5.3 4.0 1016 66 92 0.01 558 544 FRI 06Z 03-FEB 1.7 1.0 1022 87 98 0.02 558 540 FRI 12Z 03-FEB -0.2 -0.8 1024 92 93 0.07 558 538 FRI 18Z 03-FEB 1.2 -2.1 1026 81 100 0.08 559 538 SAT 00Z 04-FEB 1.5 -2.1 1025 87 100 0.08 559 538 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -0.6 -4.3 1027 78 95 0.07 558 536 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -2.6 -5.3 1029 89 98 0.19 556 533 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -2.8 -5.7 1031 88 100 0.27 556 531 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -2.2 -5.7 1031 81 100 0.10 556 531 SUN 06Z 05-FEB -2.8 -6.3 1033 82 100 0.04 556 530 SUN 12Z 05-FEB -4.1 -6.0 1033 79 99 0.03 556 530 SUN 18Z 05-FEB -2.9 -6.1 1034 77 100 0.03 556 529 MON 00Z 06-FEB -4.0 -5.0 1030 71 98 0.01 554 530 Where is that at? Just curious...what does it do for Denver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Liking this one for the plains as it doesn't look promising for once it crosses the ole miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Where is that at? Just curious...what does it do for Denver? that is for LBF. DEN data via euro FRI 06Z 03-FEB -1.2 -1.0 1025 80 95 0.04 555 535 FRI 12Z 03-FEB -3.3 -3.2 1028 80 100 0.11 554 532 FRI 18Z 03-FEB -3.9 -3.6 1030 80 100 0.29 556 531 SAT 00Z 04-FEB -3.9 -3.4 1030 88 99 0.34 556 532 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -4.2 -3.8 1032 91 100 0.35 556 531 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -4.6 -4.2 1033 92 99 0.29 556 530 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -4.6 -4.4 1035 90 99 0.15 558 530 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -5.0 -4.4 1034 90 98 0.05 558 530 SUN 06Z 05-FEB -8.7 -5.2 1035 95 91 0.01 558 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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