Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Valley Low, Mountain High. The big storm is back lol...until 00z at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 take a lookie see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 take a lookie see destroys Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 man oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 destroys Virginia that's the snow belt this yr... :-/ looks like 6"+ for me, i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 plz remember to keep really short responses to a minimum.. this thread isnt off to the best start in that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ALSO NO SOUth canada high, this has room to move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 whats ur take DT? unlike some I dont waver in fromn of withering fire folks have to know that look there stands the VIRGINIAN like a STONEWALL on Henry House Hill rally behind him men !!!! oopps sorry wrong forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Back with a VENGEANCE! That'll teach you all to jump ship early This is the kind of run i-95ers want to see at the 24h... 4-12 inches from central NC up through the eastern tip of ME. Good luck to the snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That is a true monster for se New England on this run as it closes off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 that's the snow belt this yr... :-/ looks like 6"+ for me, i'll take it Maybe 7 or 8 for me but it doesn't yet change my thinking. I still think the odds are 20 to 30 percent and the odds against it are higher than the odds for it. If the Euro trends a little more west, I'll get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Maybe 7 or 8 for me but it doesn't yet change my thinking. I still think the odds are 20 to 30 percent and the odds against it are higher. If the Euro trends a little more west, I'll get excited. it's hard to get terribly excited over the 18z GFS but it seems good that the solution is still getting spit out regardless of run time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 it's hard to get terribly excited over the 18z GFS but it seems good that the solution is still getting spit out regardless of run time. another thing that is nice is that while the storm doesn't really get going until about 120-126, the ingredients are on the table 12-24 hours before so this is quickly going to be moving into the shorter term over the next day or 2 and it'll be nice to see some model consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 that's the snow belt this yr... :-/ looks like 6"+ for me, i'll take it It's be a nice 6-10 incher... but we still have a long ways to go. Nice to see 18z pick it back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The negative tilt 500 mb trough is pratically XXX pr0n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 We just need to get the heavier qpf farther north and west and it would be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 We just need to get the heavier qpf farther north and west and it would be golden. I wouldnt worry so much about QPF or SW location at this point. I am just glad the Storm is there. And most of all the pattern looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The negative tilt 500 mb trough is pratically XXX pr0n. Get that to close of a bit earlier and a bit further west and NYC is in the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 We just need to get the heavier qpf farther north and west and it would be golden. A slightly earlier phase would do the trick. What's interesting to note (and thanks to earthlight for personally pointing this out to me), is that the 12z GGEM at 150 hours, and the 18z GFS at 144 hours actually have the surface low in the exact same spot. But, a more defined, clean, and earlier phase on the 18z GFS allows for a better-defined CCB, thus the significant I-95 shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 now if we can only get the euro to come west a bit then were golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I know a lot of the focus in this thread is the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast but this model run verbatim is a nice hit for the Carolina Mountains/Foothills region as well. It prints out about .35-.50 across that region. Of course as previously said the QPF will materialize in time. The track though it great and very similar (for us) to the big storm just one year ago. I will be looking for some model consistancy over the next couple days before I really get excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Maybe 7 or 8 for me but it doesn't yet change my thinking. I still think the odds are 20 to 30 percent and the odds against it are higher than the odds for it. If the Euro trends a little more west, I'll get excited. ECMWF ensembles look pretty similar to the OP run...18z GFS ensemble mean actually looks like it went a tick SE from 12z (though really negligible at this time frame). I think the good news is that it seems the model consensus has been a bit too far SE int his time range, so that would bode well for a bit of a NW track, however, it definitely will take a little bit of timing improvement with the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 One of the 18Z ensemble members has a lakes cutter! Actually a Miller B to the NJ coast from OH. Another goes negative to early and is an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I tend to worry of the cold, but that should be firmly locked in place, correct? Many of us our seeing our seasons coldest temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I tend to worry of the cold, but that should be firmly locked in place, correct? Many of us our seeing our seasons coldest temps. Plenty of cold around. I think track is main concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I've posted this before, Joe Bastardi mentioned many times back in the days when his column was still free, probably 1999-2002 or so that often in the medium to long range the 06Z and 18Z GFS runs are better at picking up on the pressure/actual tracks of eventual storm systems on a consistent basis than are the 00Z and 12Z runs...to an extent we did see this last week with the past storm...even though the primarily low remained dominant, the evolution of what occurred in parts of northern NY/New England was picked up on with a few of the off hour runs and then vanished on the 00z and 12z runs...it might be complete junk but I've noticed it before on some storm systems, never inside 3-4 days but in the 4-8 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.